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FED STATEMENT & POWELL PRESSER
Policy section:
- The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points, believing that the dual risks of inflation and employment have become more balanced and are no longer biased towards inflation risks.
- Powell expressed confidence in the current policy adjustment and expects this adjustment to continue to drive economic growth and resilience in the labor market.
- The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its balance sheet, despite the fact that interest rate cuts will not affect this process.
- Members of the Federal Reserve expect there may be two more interest rate cuts this year, and four interest rate cuts in 2025, with the terminal interest rate expected to be 3.4%, lower than the previous forecast in June.
- The estimate for the long-term neutral interest rate has been raised from 2.8% to 2.9%.
Economic growth (output):
- The expected GDP growth rate for the United States in the coming years is 2%.
- The improvement in the supply chain situation supports stable economic growth, and interest rate cuts help alleviate supply chain bottlenecks.
- It is expected that stable growth will continue in the second half of 2024, close to the growth level of 2.2% in the first half of the year.
Employment and consumption:
- Consumer spending remains resilient, with the labor market cooling but still relatively strong.
- The current labor market is 'slightly less tight' than in 2019, and is no longer the main source of inflation.
- The unemployment rate is expected to rise from the current 4.2% to 4.4% by the end of 2024.
Inflation:
- The Federal Reserve maintains a 2% inflation target, with the core PCE inflation rate expected to be 2.3% at the end of 2024, 2.1% at the end of 2025, and the target is to decrease to 2% by 2026.
This statement expresses the Fed's optimistic outlook on the current economic situation, believing that policy adjustments are timely and necessary to address future economic challenges. $MRCB (1651.MY)$
- The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points, believing that the dual risks of inflation and employment have become more balanced and are no longer biased towards inflation risks.
- Powell expressed confidence in the current policy adjustment and expects this adjustment to continue to drive economic growth and resilience in the labor market.
- The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its balance sheet, despite the fact that interest rate cuts will not affect this process.
- Members of the Federal Reserve expect there may be two more interest rate cuts this year, and four interest rate cuts in 2025, with the terminal interest rate expected to be 3.4%, lower than the previous forecast in June.
- The estimate for the long-term neutral interest rate has been raised from 2.8% to 2.9%.
Economic growth (output):
- The expected GDP growth rate for the United States in the coming years is 2%.
- The improvement in the supply chain situation supports stable economic growth, and interest rate cuts help alleviate supply chain bottlenecks.
- It is expected that stable growth will continue in the second half of 2024, close to the growth level of 2.2% in the first half of the year.
Employment and consumption:
- Consumer spending remains resilient, with the labor market cooling but still relatively strong.
- The current labor market is 'slightly less tight' than in 2019, and is no longer the main source of inflation.
- The unemployment rate is expected to rise from the current 4.2% to 4.4% by the end of 2024.
Inflation:
- The Federal Reserve maintains a 2% inflation target, with the core PCE inflation rate expected to be 2.3% at the end of 2024, 2.1% at the end of 2025, and the target is to decrease to 2% by 2026.
This statement expresses the Fed's optimistic outlook on the current economic situation, believing that policy adjustments are timely and necessary to address future economic challenges. $MRCB (1651.MY)$
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