[Earnings Reports] Palantir is scheduled to announce earnings on February 4. A warning about hidden risks in its rapid rise, what will be the key to its next growth?

According to market consensus,Palantir's performance forecast for Q4 of 2024: revenue is expected to increase by 27.7% year-on-year to 0.777 billion dollars, while EPS is expected to decrease by 3.0% year-on-year to 0.04 dollars.It will be done. The companyProfitability in the commercial and government sectors.andGrowth potential.AndExpansion of the AI Software market.Is,Key concerns in the market.This marks the highest order intake for the period of April-September.

According to the Q3 2024 earnings report, the company's Over 56% of revenue comes from the government sector.On the other hand, the business for the commercial sector is also experiencing rapid growth of over 45%.Over 43% experiencing rapid growth.is in effect.

from the government sector. On the other hand, business for the commercial sector is also experiencing rapid growth of over 45%.Expand the scope of application from government to the general industry sector.The company's enterprise platform includes two products, Apollo」and「Foundrydivided into two products, utilized for Big Data analysis, supply chain optimization, and customer relationship management. On the other hand, the main products for the government sector are Gotham, has the function to detect signs of terrorism and crime through the accumulation and analysis of large data. Currently,CIAやProviding data analysis solutions for government agencies such as the FBI, standing out for cooperation in the security field.Providing data analysis solutions for government agencies such as the FBI, standing out for cooperation in the security field.

Based on this, Government and defense sectorInvestors are increasingly hopeful about the company's growth prospects as they establish a unique position in the application of AI in the government and military sectors.The company's stock price increase in 2024 exceeded 340%.、It has become one of the most successful stocks in the US stock market (as of January 30).The upward trend has continued since the beginning of this year, recording a more than 6% increase year-to-date (as of January 28th).

In recent years, Palantir has signed multiple contracts with the US Department of Defense, establishing its leadership in the National Security field. According to public information, in 2024, it will collaborate with the US military.12 billion dollars (approximately 878 billion yen).Contracted with the US military to the tune of 12 billion dollars (approximately 878 billion yen).

On the other hand,The company has transitioned from a traditional Big Data analysis company to a transformative presence in the AI and data analysis fields.Through partnerships with the US military and government agencies, it is promoting the adoption of cutting-edge technology, contributing to the efficiency of decision-making and the enhancement of combat capabilities. The CEO of the company, Alex Karp, sees the advancement of AI asMr. Oppenheimer is standing at the same crossroads as when he developed nuclear weapons.described.

The AI platform (AIP) that supports the integration of the large-scale language model (LLM) into business, which was announced in Q1 of 2023, has attracted attention, and also contributes to an increase in sales growth.From 18% to 30%expanded. From September 2023 to September 2024, commercial customersIncreased by 51% compared to the previous yeargrowth.

In addition, Mr. Ivs pointed out that the growth of the company's AIP (AI platform) is being undervalued, suggesting that the department could potentially generate revenue of more than 1 billion dollars in the near future.Undervaluationin the near future, as the team led by CEO Alex Carp has built a strong technical advantage. The Trump administration's focus on AI development, particularly partnerships with the US Department of Defense like」 are seen as a tailwind for the company. Expansion of transactions with government agencies is expected in the future.There is a potential to generate revenue of more than 1 billion dollarsIndicating a view with「StargateThe strong technical advantage built by the team led by CEO Alex Carp is also highly regarded. The Trump administration's commitment to AI development, particularly partnerships with the US Department of Defense such as」 are seen as tailwinds for the company. Expansion of transactions with government agencies is expected in the future.

On the other hand, Palantir, which has established a unique position in AI applications in the government and military sectors, has a Price-Earnings Ratio (PER) exceeding 300 times in the past 12 months.earning high praise, many analysts are showing caution.expressing concern about the high valuation,with some analysts setting target prices below the current stock price.Increasing, Jefferies Securities has a cautious view on the company's stock.Analysts are increasingly setting target prices below the current stock price level.is in effect.

Jeffries Securities rates the company's stock as "Keep".Underperforming」while maintaining the rating。Target price is $28and,there is a 65% downside risk from the current stock priceaccording to analysis.
The analyst at the same firm,pointed out the possibility of slowing growth for Palantir in the fourth quarter of 2024.The stock price is the most expensive in the software sector,trading at 50 times the revenue of the next 12 months (NTM),、which is more than double the level of its industry peers.In order to maintain the current stock price,50% growth over the next 4 years is needed according to the analyst.Is needed and estimated.Potential for valuation compression due to slowing growth and changes in interest rate trends.Reached an all-time high last week.

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Source: MOOMOO, Bloomberg, Investing, Palantir homepage, IDC, Wedbush, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley
- MOOMOO News Kingsley

*As of January 30, 2025 (According to our research).
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