[Financial Results Preview] Are you concerned about Tesla's profitability even if the number of cars delivered is at a record high?
Major US EVs $Tesla(TSLA.US$It is scheduled to announce 2023Q4 financial results after closing on 1/24 EST.
According to market consensus, Tesla's fourth quarter sales compared to the same period last year$25.764 billion, up 5.95%, EPS compared to the same period last year$0.62, down 42.11%It is expected.
According to market consensus, Tesla's fourth quarter sales compared to the same period last year$25.764 billion, up 5.95%, EPS compared to the same period last year$0.62, down 42.11%It is expected.
Sales of 2023Q3 and Tesla were 23.35 billion dollars, up 9% from the same period last year, and EPS was 0.53 dollars, down 44% from the same period last year.
![[Financial Results Preview] Are you concerned about Tesla's profitability even if the number of cars delivered is at a record high?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/feed_image/181250687/db176a3495dd3ffe8617d0cede7a8346.png/bigmoo)
In 2023, investors' “enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI)” and “expectations for interest rate cuts from Western central banks”, etc. led 7 US high-tech companies called “M7,” including Tesla, to a 3-digit rise. While the “M7” continues to approach or update the highest value in history, only Tesla is slightly weak. Even if Tesla's stock price achieves a 112% growth rate in 2023, the current stock price is 48% or more below the all-time high.
“Increasing the number of cars delivered at the expense of gross profit” can be said to be Tesla's strategy in 2023. In the first half of 2023, the strategy paid off, and the number of Tesla car deliveries recorded a record high for 2 consecutive quarters. However, in the third quarter, the sales promotion effect of Tesla's price reduction strategy declined markedly. Even though price cuts were implemented again in August, sales and gross profit remained poor.
In the fourth quarter, Tesla produced 494,989 units and delivered 484,507 vehicles, both slightly exceeding expectations. The number of cars delivered in 2023 was 1.81 million units, a 38% increase from the previous year, which exceeded the target of 1.8 million units, but it did not reach Mr. Musk's target of 2 million units.
Tesla usually announces financial results after closing, and announces car delivery data a few days before settlement. Tesla's stock price performance in the same data release is as follows.
![[Financial Results Preview] Are you concerned about Tesla's profitability even if the number of cars delivered is at a record high?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/feed_image/181250687/9ef5076f15dd357095df50cbb130937f.png/bigmoo)
Tesla continues to cut prices for all models (sales structure ratio 47%) in the US and 7 out of 9 models (sales structure ratio 22%) in China.
I/O Fund analyst Damian Robbins said the gross margin ratio for the automobile business for the fourth quarter, excluding regulatory credits and operating leases, was 15.1%. The gross margin ratio for the automobile business, which includes operating leases, is expected to drop by about 60 bps from 16.33% in the 3rd quarter to 15.71%.
![[Financial Results Preview] Are you concerned about Tesla's profitability even if the number of cars delivered is at a record high?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/feed_image/181250687/b98377ce698738e5bb17f4bb379bf2a5.png/bigmoo)
According to analysts, Tesla's strong sales in the fourth quarter are related to the fact that electric vehicle subsidies in the US, Germany, and France are about to expire.
Tesla's strong number of car deliveries has a so-called “pull forward” effect where consumers speed up purchase plans in order to use specific campaigns before they expire.
![[Financial Results Preview] Are you concerned about Tesla's profitability even if the number of cars delivered is at a record high?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/feed_image/181250687/f679d7100ece3e5db50a4fc6757341be.png/bigmoo)
According to Barclays analysts, Tesla's target share price will be lowered from $260 to $250, and sales in 2024 will depend on demand rather than production capacity. Also, Tesla's sales volume in 2024 is 1.97 million units, which is lower than the market forecast of 2.19 million units, and is expected to only increase 9% from the previous year.
Regarding the 2024 guidance, he sees that there is a possibility that the number of cars delivered will be disappointing at the financial results briefing, but there is a high possibility that Mr. Musk mentioned at the financial results briefing that if the macro environment and interest rate environment are good, the number of units sold will reach 2.2 million units to 2.4 million units.
The number of EVs delivered by Chinese EV manufacturer BYD surpassed Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2023 and became the world leader. Currently, it can be said that the main difference between Tesla and BYD's business models is that BYD offers a lower price model.
![[Financial Results Preview] Are you concerned about Tesla's profitability even if the number of cars delivered is at a record high?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/feed_image/181250687/e349c6bb557633e0b009a10d7586528e.png/bigmoo)
According to related sources, Tesla is working on the development of new cheap EV models. Mass production may still take a few years, but investors expect it to launch at a price comparable to BYD.
According to HSBC analysts, demand for Tesla's electric vehicles “appears to have stabilized.” The performance of electric vehicle manufacturing is strong, but what affects Tesla's evaluation is not automobile sales, but progress in commercialization of the supercomputer “Dojo,” fully autonomous driving software for FSD, and the humanoid robot “Optimus.”
According to Tesla, the initial cost of FSD is 12,000 dollars, and the monthly usage fee is around 199 dollars.
Goldman analysts expect FSD to contribute as much as 75 billion dollars in revenue by 2030.
If you think optimistically, there is a possibility that FSD will account for tens of billion dollars of sales per year (even more revenue can be expected when considering Dojo licensing and FSD sales to other OEMs).
This article uses automatic translation for some parts
Source: Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, The Fly
ー Moo Moo News Citron
Source: Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, The Fly
ー Moo Moo News Citron
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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181338057犬心久美子 : I don't think Elon Musk is looking only at EVs. He's at the center now, but I think his prospects and ambitions are immeasurable.
181557688 : What Tesla, which has become an AI company rather than EV cars, should do is sell fully autonomous vehicles. Once this is achieved, the past high will well be exceeded
sabuzero : It seems that you are truly taking what Elon is saying, but don't you understand that complete autonomous driving is impossible? I don't think there's any reason why a car running a machine won't cause an accident even if an accident occurs even when an operation is moved by human will. It's impossible.
Surimi : Well, accidents will happen even with autonomous driving. But I think it's certain that the accident rate for autonomous driving will be <the accident rate for human drivers. There is also an economic need for labor saving in the transportation industry, so I don't think the trend of autonomous driving will stop. The problem is that it is uncertain how long it will take until it is realized.
sabuzero Surimi : If you're monitoring human data, the accident rate is the same, isn't it? But can you do it while you're still alive? I don't think it will be possible forever.
181557688 sabuzero : I think it's accurate because machines move without humans moving...
sabuzero 181557688 : What I'm studying is human data, so I think the accident rate is the same as humans.
There will be no further results.
If only we could do the same thing as humans without making a difference.
Like a t-shirt folding slave somewhere.
I'm not mistaken?
181557688 : Do you think the accuracy of cutting udon by hand is the same as cutting udon with a machine? Am I misunderstanding something? Is the accident rate the same? no way. explode
exera : I think the difference between humans and machines is due to emotional blurring. People are full of emotions, hesitation habits, judgment speed, etc., but since machines faithfully execute basically determined rules and algorithms, there is probably little variation in output. Naturally, there may be times when errors that don't match reality occur, but I think there are fewer mistakes than humans.
For example, if you speed up and accelerate when it changes from a green light to a yellow light, you can still cross the intersection before it turns red! Or, if you overtake the car in front of you, you'll be able to pass through the intersection before the traffic light changes! I think there are many drivers who think that, but machines don't have that kind of feeling; rather, since the signal seems to change, I think it's safer to slow down little by little rather than accelerate.
This is a cross section called an intersection, but if all cars drive autonomously and stop entering an unreasonable intersection, the number of intersection accidents will decrease, and I think the number of accidents that will happen again will also decrease.