[Financial results preview] Expectations for Tokyo Electron's AI semiconductors! Keep a close eye on the trend of export restrictions between the US and China

● $Tokyo Electron.JP$Is3:30 p.m., after the big closing on 8/8uponConsolidated financial results for the first quarter (1Q) of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025It will be announced.
●Market forecast (Bloomberg consensus)Well then,1Q consolidated salesCompared to the previous fiscal yearA 28% increase of 500.3 billion yen、Earnings per share (EPS)Is54% increase of 211 yen 19 senI anticipate it.
●AI (artificial intelligence) for semiconductorsManufacturing equipment etc. are doing wellFull-year profit is expected to increase by double digits. Meanwhile, as the sales ratio in China increases, the United StatesMovements to strengthen export restrictions to Chinais attracting attention.
● According to evaluations by 18 analysts, 50% are bullish, 27.78% are slightly bullish, and 22.22% are neutral, what is the overall evaluation“Somewhat bullish”It has become.The average target stock price is 0.04 million482.47 yenSo, from the closing price on 8/583.55% room for growthThere is. What is a microwave0.03 million yen to 48,500 yen.

Will export restrictions to China be avoided?
As the company's dependence on China increases, what is feared is export restrictions to China by the United States. US Bloomberg announced on 7/16 that in order for the US Biden administration to block China's access to advanced semiconductor technology,”Apply a new restriction called the “Foreign Direct Goods Rule (FDPR)”Then it was reported. FDPR is a framework that can restrict exports of products using US technology even a little regardless of the country of manufacture. $AMAT.US$Ya $LRCX.US$American equipment companies such as these have been affected by regulations for many years, and pressure is being put on the US government to impose restrictions on equipment manufacturers such as Japan. However, there are also reports that Japanese, Dutch, and Korean manufacturers will be exempted,There is a possibility that Tokyo Electron, Dutch ASML Holding, etc. will escape the application of the rules。

The level of preference from investors is high
According to a report by JPMorgan analysts, when visiting investors in the Asian region in mid-July,Stocks less likely to be affected by tightening export restrictionsIt is said that interest in it was high. China generally has a high sales ratio $Tokyo Electron.JP$Ya $Screen Holdings.JP$There is a high possibility that stocks related to previous processes, etc. will be directly affected in the short term. However, in order of stocks that were overall positive during this visit, $Advantest.JP$、 $Tokyo Electron.JP$、 $Hoya.JP$、 $Lasertec.JP$、 $Screen Holdings.JP$It became. Tokyo Electron cut into the top position after Advantest in the post-process, and it is said that it was also seen as a brand that should be aimed at a high level of confidence that business performance would grow over the medium to long term.

Will they be bought back on a priority basis?
Recently, semiconductor-related stocks have been on a downward trend. It is regarded as the main sales destination for Tokyo Electron $INTC.US$、 $TSM.US$, Samsung, $MU.US$、 $TXN.US$The recent stock prices of most companies have declined, and there are concerns about investment momentum. However, in the market, the upward phase of semiconductor stocks is not over yet, and there is a strong view that semiconductor stocks will be bought back again. Major domestic securities analysts have low sales to China as stocks that are easily bought back $Lasertec.JP$Also, at the same time as listing post-process-related stocks,”Considering the future direction of fundamentals, memory-related priorities such as Tokyo Electron are high” It also points out.