【Earnings Preview】Tokyo Electron Ltd. Unsponsored ADR, Is the decrease in China ratio progressing? Concerns about regulation towards China also AI-oriented good performance! To achieve the highest profit update in 2 years.

moomooニュース日本株 wrote a column · Nov 7, 2024 16:03

● $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$Is After the market close on November 12th, to the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2025 (Consolidated financial statements for the 4th to 9th months of the fiscal year 2024)Will be announced.
●Market expectations (Bloomberg Consensus)In the Bloomberg Consensus, the consolidated revenue for the 4th to 9th months isa 35% increase from the same period last year, reaching 1 trillion 105.5 billion yen.and expecting earnings per share (EPS) of 500 yen 56 sen, up 1.7 times.of 500 yen 56 sen, up 1.7 times.Will be expected.
●AI半導体向けが好調だが、米国による対中輸出規制強化懸念などから投資家は慎重姿勢を維持している。１Qでは中国現地メーカーの前倒し投資などにより中国売上が全体の半分を占めたHowever, it is expected to decrease in the second half due to a rebound. Attention is focused on the revenue growth to compensate for this rebound decrease and the degree of correction of the China bias.

- According to evaluations by 17 analysts, 52.94% are bullish, 23.53% are slightly bullish, and 23.53% are neutral, with an overall evaluation of「slightly bullish.」has become.The average target stock price is ¥4,305,000. It suggests a 48.8% upside potential from the closing price on November 7th.The target stock price range is2.6 million to 41,000 yen.

【Earnings Preview】Tokyo Electron Ltd. Unsponsored ADR, Is the decrease in China ratio progressing? Concerns about regulation towards China also AI-oriented good...

AI semiconductors doing well, heading for the highest profit in two years.
At the 1st quarter earnings release on August 8,The company revised its full-year performance outlook upward.Done.Investment in cutting-edge memory such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) used in AI servers is strong. Recovery is also seen in the smart phone and personal computer sectors.is expected to reach 478 billion yen, a 31.3% increase compared to the previous year, marking the highest profit in 2 years.Operating revenue, operating profit, and operating margin are all at record highs.Efforts to increase self-sufficiency in semiconductors in China, a major sales market, are active, and in Q1, emerging manufacturers purchased manufacturing equipment ahead of schedule, resulting in an increase in the China sales ratio overall.The full-year net profit is expected to increase by 31.3% compared to the previous year to 478 billion yen, achieving the highest profit in 2 years.Becoming.Sales and operating income, as well as operating margin, are all at record highs.So, in Q1, due to early purchases of manufacturing equipment by emerging manufacturers, the sales ratio in China accounted for 49.9% of the total.49.9%.(Refer to the graph below: the company's earnings report). However, this is due to an acceleration of the initial plan, and the ratio is expected to decrease in the second half. There is a possibility that the high plateau continued in the 2Q, but the company isThe company stated that the China ratio will be in the 30% range in Q4..

The stock price is close to about half of the year-to-date high
The 1Q earnings were praised by analysts as 'a better start than expected,' but the stock price remains lackluster. Ever since the 'Black Monday of Reiwa' in early August, further lows have been reached, and currentlyIt has declined to about 45% below the year-to-date high on April 5th.manufacturing equipment in the Netherlands $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$がAI以外の分野の低迷を理由に業績見通しを下方修正した10月の「ASML shock」も尾を引く。米大統領にはトランプ氏が返り咲くことなった。具体的な政策はまだ見えないが中国半導体産業を抑え込む方針に変わりなさそうだ。また、半導体の業界団体SEMIによる9月の資料で、半導体製造設備市場は24年の40 billionドル（約６兆円）超をピークとして、25年には23年の水準にまで減少することが示されたことも悪材料だ。

株価大幅調整で過熱感消えた？
There was an AI boom in the first half of this year, so Tokyo Electron Ltd. Unsponsored ADR's average Price Earnings Ratio (PE) over the past year isis high at 36.9 times However,At present, it has significantly dropped to around 25 times . In the past 2 years, the average PE ratio was 27.5 times 、5At an average of 24.6 times per year.Looking at it, it seems to be at a level where the overheating feeling has disappeared. Once the market determines that all negative factors have been exhausted, there is a possibility that it will be highly evaluated again for its overwhelming development technology and growth potential.

Expectation for the expansion of market share of etching equipment
Research and development expenses for this fiscal year are 253 billion yen andpast record highWhat attracts attention is the etching (processing) technology of NAND flash memory which will be required in large quantities due to the proliferation of AI, calledCryo etchingBy processing at lower temperatures than before, the production speed can be increased. It is expected that etching equipment equipped with this technology will contribute to sales in the 2026 fiscal year. Leading ahead of top-class rice with etching equipment. $Lam Research (LRCX.US)$Has the chance to take away share of flash memory earlier than vroom.Has the chance to take away share of flash memory.In the first quarter earnings call, President Toshiki Kawai expressed his enthusiasm, saying he has entered the final stage of pushing for mass production.Has entered the final stage of pushing for mass production.Has entered the final stage of pushing for mass production.

Customers and suppliers
Main customers are $Intel (INTC.US)$、 $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Samsung Electronics, suppliers include $Naigai Tec (3374.JP)$、 $Daihen (6622.JP)$、 $Suzuden (7480.JP)$、 $TOCALO (3433.JP)$、 $Aval Data (6918.JP)$etc。

Major ratings of Tokyo Electron by securities companies.
There is no change in the rating, but a notable decrease in the target stock price is evident.