[Earnings Preview] TSMC, strong demand driving growth - possibility of returning to the "1 trillion dollar club" in market capitalization?
● $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$is Japan timeThe announcement of the third quarter earnings for 2024 is scheduled for the afternoon of October 17.scheduled to.
According to moomoo, the market is TSMC's 24Q3 revenue is 750.211 billion Taiwan dollars, with an EPS of 56.8 Taiwan dollarsaccording to estimates.
Q2 results exceeded expectations, driven by demand for 3nm and 5nm products, with a 36.3% increase in net profit and a 40.1% increase in revenue.
Noteworthy: growth outlook for Q4 and full year, price increases for advanced processes and CoWos, progress in expanding production capacity, and capital expenditures.
Supported by AI and smartphone demand, the company's stock is expected to reach an all-time high.
According to moomoo, the market is TSMC's 24Q3 revenue is 750.211 billion Taiwan dollars, with an EPS of 56.8 Taiwan dollarsaccording to estimates.
Q2 results exceeded expectations, driven by demand for 3nm and 5nm products, with a 36.3% increase in net profit and a 40.1% increase in revenue.
Noteworthy: growth outlook for Q4 and full year, price increases for advanced processes and CoWos, progress in expanding production capacity, and capital expenditures.
Supported by AI and smartphone demand, the company's stock is expected to reach an all-time high.
![[Earnings Preview] TSMC, strong demand driving growth - possibility of returning to the "1 trillion dollar club" in market capitalization?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20241014/f4eae05a0b4dbbb5b6dcf28ff48f2ebd.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) Q2 net profit increased by 36.3% to 247.85 billion Taiwan dollars, while revenue increased by 40.1% to 673.51 billion Taiwan dollarsAccording to management comments, the negative factors in the smartphone segment were overall offset by improved demand for TSMC's 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer products.
In addition, the September revenue announced on the 9th increased by 39% year-on-year to 251.87 billion Taiwan dollars, significantly exceeding market expectations.Revenue for the July-September period expanded to approximately 753.61 billion Taiwan dollars, an increase of 12% compared to the same period last year, demonstrating growth that exceeded market expectations.Amid the ongoing AI boom, the continued strong demand for semiconductor chips was highlighted.
According to Counterpoint Research, the company has captured a 62% market share in the global semiconductor manufacturing market in the second quarter, uniquely positioned to capitalize on the increased capital expenditure by companies on AI hardware infrastructure.
Currently, the company's main sources of revenue are high-performance computers, smart phone operations, digital electronic products, internet of things, and automobile operations. Many of these operations are expected to continue strong growth, leading to further demand for chips.
AI推論コンピューティングの潜在的な成長力による需要も見逃せない。米 $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$の最高経営責任者ジェンスン・フアン氏は先日のノン・ディール・ロードショーで、人工知能（AI）の未来は「論理立て」が可能なサービスになるだろうとの見方を示した。 より多くの消費者が日常業務にAI/MLモデルを活用し始めると、大量な計算が予想され、世界中の消費者にサービスを提供するために、より高性能なチップが必要になることを示唆している。
$Micron Technology (MU.US)$の最新な決算で示されたAIデーターセンターで不可欠の高性能メモリーHBMへの旺盛な需要から、TSMCがエヌビディアのような企業向けに生産しているデータセンター向けGPUへの需要も同様に旺盛であることが推測される。さらに、エヌビディアのような企業から高価格な次世代AIチップを購入することを回避するため、より多くの企業が自社のAIチップを製造するためにファブを直接利用することになった。このトレンドは、長期的にはTSMCに利益をもたらし（収益の増加、カスタムチップ生産による粗利率の向上）、今後数四半期で記録的な売上高と粗利益率に押し上げる可能性がある。
先進プロセスチップの莫大な需要による追い風を享受する上で、TSMCほど有利な立場にある企業は今のところ他にないことを強調しておきたい。 現在、同社は先進プロセスチップの約90％の市場シェアを占めており、優位に立っている。生産能力の供給不足で、同社は3nm先進プロセスでの受託生産価格を5％以上引き上げるほか、先端パッケージング（CoWos）も、25年に10〜20％値上げすると関係筋が明らかにした。さらに、今後2年間に新製品をリリースする予定だ。 前回の決算説明会によると、同社の経営陣は、2nmと1.6nmプロセスの量産をそれぞれ2025年と2026年に開始すると見込んでいる。
また、同社はCoWosの生産能力拡大を急いでいる。経営陣は2025年にCoWoS生産能力を「2倍以上」に拡大することを視野に入れている。
バンカメのアナリストは、「米アムコーとの先端パッケージングにおける協業により、米国の顧客により良いサービスを提供することを目的としており、強じんなサプライチェーンを確保しながらイノベーションを推進できる。2025年末までにその能力が著しく向上することを期待している。こうした戦略的な動きと技術的な進歩は、進化する市場環境において同社を有利に位置づける」と述べた。
The biggest risk for TSMC, like other semiconductor companies, is the potential decrease in gross margin.
According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, TSMC's gross margin may have slightly improved from 55% in the third quarter to 55.5% in the fourth quarter, driven by strong demand for AI chips and further production increases in 3nm chips. It is anticipated that after wafer prices are raised next year, the company's gross margin is likely to maintain around 55% post-2025.
Therefore, if the company announces a lower-than-expected gross margin forecast or fails to achieve double-digit revenue growth, a reassessment of the company's growth outlook may be necessary. Nvidia, $Apple (AAPL.US)$、 $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$among others, being major customers, as their growth outlook influences the performance of global semiconductor and high-tech stocks, there is a potential to unsettle investor sentiment.
Overall, due to the sustained demand for hardware used in artificial intelligence and the recovery in demand for hardware used in smartphones, the company is likely to announce a strong quarterly earnings call. As a result, investors are hoping that TSM's stock price will reach record highs, surpassing the $200 mark. Forecasts for the fourth quarter and 2025 growth are also highly anticipated, potentially influencing the direction of global semiconductor stocks.
Source: Seeking Alpha, IG, Tipranks
This article uses automatic translation in part.
- moomoo News Vicky
This article uses automatic translation in part.
- moomoo News Vicky
![[Earnings Preview] TSMC, strong demand driving growth - possibility of returning to the "1 trillion dollar club" in market capitalization?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20240425/c3f0aeae25cc4bf947fff7f33d0f6a3a.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
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