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-- 26.990 [Financial results summary] Nvidia, no delays in Blackwell! 4Q shipments to expand next year. Will the big wave of AI arrive in 2025?
「Blackwell's production is moving 'full speed ahead.' This quarter, we plan to ship more Blackwell units than previously estimated.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Jensun Huan, CEO of Jensen, will address the concerns about delays caused by the overheating issues at Blackwell in the earnings call on November 20.Dismissing concerns of delays due to the overheating issue at Blackwell.However, the stock price fell by 2.1% in after-hours trading.after hours trading fell by 2.1%Indeed. The mostThe decline rate is limitedcan also be said.
The followingstrength and weakness factorsare believed to have influenced the stock price.
Weak factors:3Q results significantly exceeded expectations, but the focus is on:4Q revenue guidanceFinancial estimates remained slightly higher than expected. With Blackwell's shipment beginning, some investors were expecting a significant upward revision in guidance.
Strong factors:Regarding concerns about Blackwell delays,Regarding this, CEO Jensen Huang indicated that everything is progressing as scheduled without any delays.Dismissed the concerns.and suppressed the downside of the stock price. However,it did not reach strong guidance, so as a result, the stock price declined slightly.ため、結果として株価は小幅ながら下落した。
Weak factors:3Q results significantly exceeded expectations, but the focus is on:4Q revenue guidanceFinancial estimates remained slightly higher than expected. With Blackwell's shipment beginning, some investors were expecting a significant upward revision in guidance.
Strong factors:Regarding concerns about Blackwell delays,Regarding this, CEO Jensen Huang indicated that everything is progressing as scheduled without any delays.Dismissed the concerns.and suppressed the downside of the stock price. However,it did not reach strong guidance, so as a result, the stock price declined slightly.ため、結果として株価は小幅ながら下落した。
●Thank you(August-October period) Results:Significantly exceeded financial estimates.
・revenue：35.08 billion dollarsa 94% increase from the same period last year and a 17% increase from the previous quarter. Market expectations are33.21 billion dollarsThe company's pre-guidance is 32.5 billion dollars ± 2%
Among whichthe main datacenter divisionare 30.77 billion dollars 'Triggered a negative chain reaction...'Achieving a new record112% increase compared to the same period last year, 17% increase from the previous quarter, market expectation is 29.11 billion dollars.
・Adjusted gross profit margin：75.0％Market expectation is 75.0%, company's pre-guidance is 75% ±0.5%.
・調整後EPS(Earnings Per Share): 0.81 dollars, a 2.1 times increase from the same period last year, market estimate is 0.74 dollars
●4th Quarter(November-January period) Guidance: Slightly exceeding financial estimates.
・revenue：37.5 billion dollars±2%, market estimate is 37.1 billion dollars
・Adjusted gross profit margin：73.5％Market expectations are at 73.5%.
![[Financial results summary] Nvidia, no delays in Blackwell! 4Q shipments to expand next year. Will the big wave of AI arrive in 2025?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20241121/f90c696fe666da32615e166d6b392f8f.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
After the earnings reports, there was a noticeable increase in expected EPS for the next several quarters (adjusted).
![[Financial results summary] Nvidia, no delays in Blackwell! 4Q shipments to expand next year. Will the big wave of AI arrive in 2025?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20241121/web-1732157842012-a07c19a0-fbca-4718-bb8a-f09e376cad92.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
● Hopper products
・NVIDIA Hopper's Demand is 'abnormal'.revenue reached tens of billions of dollars, a double-digit increase from the previous quarter. It became the fastest growing product in the company's history. H200 has significantly grown not only in terms of order numbers but also in the speed of its launch.
● Blackwell products
・In the 3Q, there were 13,000 GPUサンプルを顧客に出荷した。その中にはOpen AI向けに最初のBlackwell DGXエンジニアリング・サンプルが含まれている。すべての顧客が、いち早く市場に参入しようと躍起になっている。Blackwellは現在、すべての主要なパートナーの手中にあり、彼らはデータセンターの立ち上げに取り組んでいる。
・In the 3Q, there were 13,000 GPUサンプルを顧客に出荷した。その中にはOpen AI向けに最初のBlackwell DGXエンジニアリング・サンプルが含まれている。すべての顧客が、いち早く市場に参入しようと躍起になっている。Blackwellは現在、すべての主要なパートナーの手中にあり、彼らはデータセンターの立ち上げに取り組んでいる。
・Blackwallの需要は非常に強い。我々の実行は順調に進んでいる。世界中で行っているエンジニアリングはたくさんある。現在、DellとCore Weaveのシステムが立ち上がっており、オラクルのシステムも立ち上がったと思う。Microsoftのシステムもあり、Grace Blackwellシステムはプレビューを控えている。
・BlackwellIn excellent condition.And as mentioned earlier,The supply and shipment volumes for this quarter are higher than previous estimates.While the shipment numbers for the previous quarter were zero, looking at the total shipment volume of the Blackwell system for this quarter (in the tens of billions of dollars), the growth can be considered remarkable. (Comments during the Q&A session on supply concerns)
・Blacwell'sproduction is "moving forward at full speed"The supply chain team is doing well. They are doing a great job working with supply partners to increase production. We intend to continue our efforts next year to increase Blackwell's production volume.
・As Blackwell rises,Gross profit marginI am expecting it to settle in the low 70% range. When fully launched, Blackwell's gross profit margin will beMid-70sbe predicted to be as weak as in July.
2025 shipping forecast for Hopper and Blackwell.
Demand for HopperDefinitely until next year2025年The first few quarters will continue.I would expect. During that time, we will likely ship more in the next quarter than in the previous quarter. And,The next quarterwill be higher than the first quarter.shippingwe may end up shipping more Blackwell.
Demand for HopperDefinitely until next year2025年The first few quarters will continue.I would expect. During that time, we will likely ship more in the next quarter than in the previous quarter. And,The next quarterwill be higher than the first quarter.shippingwe may end up shipping more Blackwell.
After the earnings reports, several analysts raised their target stock prices. As of November 21st,average target stock priceare 160.94 dollars、highest target stock priceare 200 dollars、Minimum target stock priceare 150 dollarsIt has become so.
(Note: Based on Bloomberg's calculations. Data is as of 12:00 PM Japan time on November 21st. Analyst revisions may continue.)
![[Financial results summary] Nvidia, no delays in Blackwell! 4Q shipments to expand next year. Will the big wave of AI arrive in 2025?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20241121/web-1732157902706-4bc063b2-a42c-406d-8d38-6298694ed425.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
- DatacenterをModernization on a trillion-dollar scale.I believe it's necessary. This is because there are many old datacenters. Let's assume that as IT grows over the next 4 years, datacenters worldwide will be modernized. As you may know, IT continues to grow at around 20% to 30% annually. By 2030, global computing datacenters are expected to reach trillions of dollars in IT. We need to grow to that scale. From coding to machine learning, we need to modernize datacenters. This is the first point.
・The second one is,AI generationWe are currently creating a new type of functionality that the world has never seen before, generating new market segments that the world has never had. When we look at OpenAI, we realize that it doesn't replace anything. It's completely new. Just like when the iPhone was introduced, it's something entirely new.
・Therefore,First of allweplan to advance the modernization of IT and computingintend to.And secondlyIt will become a new industry that produces artificial intelligence.Establishing an artificial intelligence (ai) factory.'the next wave of artificial intelligenceIsEnterprise artificial intelligence.andAI for industry.Indeed.
![[Financial results summary] Nvidia, no delays in Blackwell! 4Q shipments to expand next year. Will the big wave of AI arrive in 2025?](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181250687/20241122/2d3596c78e293a7c62ab5c84a8958255.png/big?area=105&is_public=true)
【Note】
Delayed reports from Blackwell and key comments from the company's management (mainly CEO Jenson Juan).Regarding the following,A compilation in chronological orderis recommended for reference.
●On August 2nd, the reports
Blackwell技術問題で投入遅れの可能性がある。（The Information、Bloomberg）
●8月28日、経営陣
「生産歩留まりを向上させるために、Blackwell GPUマスクに変更を加えたRecognized. However, also revealed the following.「BlackwellThe product is widely sampled.Production startStarting from the January 2025 period4th quarter(November-January period) started and is scheduled to continue until the January 2026 period.「4th quarterare Expecting billions of dollars in shipments for Blackwell. Demand for the Blackwell platform far exceeds supply, and this situation is expected to continue into next year."Earnings call"
● On September 12th, the management
"Currently,Blackwell is in full production.Indeed.Shipments in the 4th quarter.andExpand from the 4th quarter to next year. Starting. Demand is very strong, everyone wants to be the first to get it, everyone. Their enthusiasm is truly, truly exceptional."Goldman Sachs' conference: On October 3, the management team stated that Blackwell's demand is 'abnormal'.
On October 3, the management team
Blackwell'sDemand is 'abnormal'.I see.(Out of the ordinary).'' (Interview with CNBC) (Subsequently, on October 8th, the Chairman of Hon Hai Precision Industry stated, "As Jensen Huang, CEO, mentioned that the demand is crazy, we are responding to this crazy demand." The expression "crazy" started to be widely covered in the media.)crazy"expression has become more common in the media.)
● On November 17, in the Blackwell investigation,
an overheated issueoverheated issueFor the past few months, we have been requesting server rack design changes to our suppliers.Concerns about delays in deployment are arising.It is occurring. (The Information, Bloomberg)
Nvidia's PR representative stated, "'Engineering iterations are normal,' as stated..As expected.'Engineering iterations are normal,' as stated.
● On November 20, during this earnings call
（本レポートの「Key comments from management:」部分を参照されたい。）Delayed reports from Blackwell and key comments from the company's management (mainly CEO Jenson Juan).Regarding the following,A compilation in chronological orderis recommended for reference.
●On August 2nd, the reports
Blackwell技術問題で投入遅れの可能性がある。（The Information、Bloomberg）
●8月28日、経営陣
「生産歩留まりを向上させるために、Blackwell GPUマスクに変更を加えたRecognized. However, also revealed the following.「BlackwellThe product is widely sampled.Production startStarting from the January 2025 period4th quarter(November-January period) started and is scheduled to continue until the January 2026 period.「4th quarterare Expecting billions of dollars in shipments for Blackwell. Demand for the Blackwell platform far exceeds supply, and this situation is expected to continue into next year."Earnings call"
● On September 12th, the management
"Currently,Blackwell is in full production.Indeed.Shipments in the 4th quarter.andExpand from the 4th quarter to next year. Starting. Demand is very strong, everyone wants to be the first to get it, everyone. Their enthusiasm is truly, truly exceptional."Goldman Sachs' conference: On October 3, the management team stated that Blackwell's demand is 'abnormal'.
On October 3, the management team
Blackwell'sDemand is 'abnormal'.I see.(Out of the ordinary).'' (Interview with CNBC) (Subsequently, on October 8th, the Chairman of Hon Hai Precision Industry stated, "As Jensen Huang, CEO, mentioned that the demand is crazy, we are responding to this crazy demand." The expression "crazy" started to be widely covered in the media.)crazy"expression has become more common in the media.)
● On November 17, in the Blackwell investigation,
an overheated issueoverheated issueFor the past few months, we have been requesting server rack design changes to our suppliers.Concerns about delays in deployment are arising.It is occurring. (The Information, Bloomberg)
Nvidia's PR representative stated, "'Engineering iterations are normal,' as stated..As expected.'Engineering iterations are normal,' as stated.
● On November 20, during this earnings call
Prepared by Market Analyst Julie on November 21, 24.
Source: Compiled by moomoo Securities from company documents and Bloomberg
Source: Compiled by moomoo Securities from company documents and Bloomberg
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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184295026 : - Nvidia, no delay in Blackwell!
What are you talking about??
Is the article title incorrect?
In the previous earnings reports at the end of August,
- There were structural defects in Blackwell
- They claimed to overcome them technically and establish a full-scale production and shipping system in autumn (around November to December)
How does it look now that the truth has come out (in this earnings report)?
The structural defects of the new flagship model "Blackwell" chip, which had been mentioned since the summer, are still not overcome!!!
That's why full-scale production has been delayed to next year!!!
It's not going to be within this year!!!
In fact, this is how it was written in the economic articles from August at that time
- Blackwell is a new GPU architecture announced by Nvidia in March 2024, initially planned to start mass production and shipping in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October to December)
Therefore, the article title is incorrect.
嬉天堂 184295026 : I wonder if that's right? I don't think the title is wrong. Also, don't trust stock information. My sources are in line with both the time series. More important than Blackwell's delay, is real quality usable? Maybe not. It has been proven that it can be used. So the sampling was successful, and it's getting crazy. After that, it's up to you to believe in NB and buy or sell. Emotional arguments lead to ruin. These are my stock master's words. Please do your best.
鳥貴族 : They've been saying 4Q consistently since the Blackwell announcement, but every time the expected value was too big, they kept saying 4Q and that's right
If you don't listen properly to Jensen's remarks, you'll fall prey to the instigator ~
184295026 : Sample and prototype products are predominantly made in a very meticulous and precise environment. It seems that Blackwell also succeeded in the prototype stage, otherwise there wouldn't be any prototypes. They won't loudly announce, "A new flagship model is born!!! We will produce and deliver worldwide from now on, please look forward to the arrival of the new AI era
️" through a leather jacket.
However, the problem is,
- Making prototypes requires a very meticulous and careful environment, which means it takes a lot of time.
- Whether it can be mass-produced quickly, in a short amount of time, and with quality that does not produce defects is a different matter.
After the announcement of the start date of mass production system for the new product, if it changes repeatedly, it completely loses credibility. In this explanation of the recent earnings announcement, the delay in the mass production system and the revision of the start date of the previous earnings announcement have caused a loss of credibility from the market. This must be clearly identified as "fact".
- Just NVIDIA is fine.
- They are now the world's No.1 producer of AI chips, so everything will be fine no matter what happens.
If they do this, it would be a truly foolish act, singing a foolish and pathetic song like "We'll be together forever NVIDIA~" similar to those people who are known for their foolish acts.
Regarding your suggestion on "blindly believing stock information",
in other words, the situation of stock price fluctuations in the near future, and the economic news articles made up of words and sentences from various economists and analysts who emit information in line with the stock price change, just like "fortune-tellers at a horse racing track",
some have been unreasonably trusting this.
- Because it's economic news, they won't say lies or mistakes.
- Economists and analysts won't give incorrect opinions.
- After all, if these people were to significantly deviate from the truth, saying something completely off, they would completely lose social credibility by being labeled as liars, falsehood-speakers, or delusional talkers.
Therefore, before disseminating information, they desperately verify and back up the information.
- That's why their words can be trusted.
This extremely strong bias has always been present while conducting a thorough understanding and examination of the current situation from economic information for investment activities. This bias was evident from the market movements after the NVIDIA earnings in late August and the present, that I had made a significant mistake. I realized this is a powerful "curse of thought" that solidifies one's thinking into only one form. Thinking that one is "completely correct" leads to attacking and denying critiques even when identified as a mistake.
A thought deemed correct will lead to the complete denial of self-existence.
Hence, one will never realize the mistake of the bias and be freed from the curse.
However, this time, through your advice, I realized that I am heavily under the influence of a strong bias in investment activities. Thankfully, I don't follow the beginner-like approach of concentrating over half of my own funds in a single stock, so the damage due to NVIDIA's performance is minimal. However, I hold a significant amount of semiconductor-related stocks that are quite linked and impacted by NVIDIA's movements. But this is essentially the same as focusing on a single industry sector despite not being a single stock concentration approach.
With the Trump administration's full swing beginning next year, it is certain that the global markets (stocks, bonds, currencies) will be greatly disturbed by:
- America-first domestic economic policy
- Diplomatic policies involving geopolitics and war risks that significantly affect the world economy
- Economic diplomacy policies (such as severe tariffs) that directly impact the economy and lead to trade wars
Many American global companies, including NVIDIA, will be noticeably restricted in their global business activities due to these policies. Therefore, it is strongly recognized that selecting and holding investment targets with the same sense as before this year is extremely risky and tantamount to "swallowing a sword." (In reality, many individuals who haven't noticed this global change are optimistic and excited with a sword to their throat, saying, "It's safe because it's a long-term investment." without confirming the breakdown of their own assets → global situation change)
In addition, due to your advice, by releasing the bias from "blindly believing stock information," my thinking horizon has expanded. Hence, I will aim to dismantle and reconstruct my portfolio, which is concentrated on a single sector like I am doing, by the end of this year at the latest.
Finally, thank you for your advice.