Fitch pushes back China rate cut expectations to next year as Fed holds interest rates steady

Ratings agency Fitch no longer expects China to cut its policy rate this year, instead delaying such a reduction to next year as the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps its interest rates high.
Fitch now forecasts China will keep its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) unchanged this year at 2.5%, and cut it to 2.25% next year.
In March, the ratings agency had forecast one cut for 2024.
“There are a couple of factors behind this. First on the external side, concerns around the exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, because of changing expectations for the Fed, restrain the [People’s Bank of China],” Jeremy Zook, Fitch Ratings’ head of sovereign rating in Asia Pacific, said during a presentation Wednesday.

Next year, “as the Fed begins to cut policy rates we think that should give a bit more space for the PBOC to maneuver,” he said. Zook expects Beijing to make greater use of fiscal policy this year.