This week's financial results and economic calendar (12/4 to 12/8) The focus shifts to the period when US interest rates fall! Will employment statistics provide justification for expectations?

This week's points
Japanese stocks are likely to move slightly this week. US employment statistics will be announced on the 8th, and since the US FOMC will be held the following week, it is predicted that the situation with a strong wait-and-see attitude will continue throughout the week. Also, the 8th is SQ for the 12 month limit for stock price index futures and options,Observations surrounding the Bank of Japan policyYaStock supply and demand trendsis likely to be guarded against as a factor in market turbulence. Corrective observations on large-scale monetary mitigation measures are still strong, and it seems that the 1st workshop on the “Multifaceted Review of Monetary Policy” to be held by the Bank of Japan on December 4 will attract attention in the near future.

Meanwhile, the Nikkei Average has been rising since 20/ 11, with a monthly increase of 2628 yen (8.5%) in November,Level for the first time in 3 yearsIt became. However, due to a rapid riseThe short-term feeling of heating is fadingOn the other hand, in order to surpass the year-to-date high (33,853 yen 46 yen)Lack of materialsThis point of view is asked. Around the same level this weekIt's easy to get pushed by profit-taking salesIt's called.

Once the first stage of the US stock rally is over,Speed adjustment startedThat's right. Until about 2 weeks ago, the decline in US interest rates led to stock appreciation, but over the past week or soThe decline in US interest rates has shifted to a situation representing the economic unease behind itThen, simply falling interest rates ceased to be stock prices. In the USEmployment statisticsImportant economic indicators such as these are scheduled to be announced, and these were receivedPay attention to long-term interest rate trends in the USThat's it. What is the biggest focusWill US economic indicators show weakness that justifies interest rate cut observations。 Currently, the market has already factored in the end of the US interest rate hike. As for interest rate cuts, we currently anticipate next May with a probability close to 50%. Regarding the Fed's policy,The difference in views between the market and FOMC members has come to light。 The market has consistently finished the interest rate hike cycle, and it is anticipated that interest rate cuts will begin next year. However, the FOMC members did not lose their cautious stance on inflation, and they still emphasized the risk of declaring victory too soon in the fight against inflation.

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average fell for the first time in 5 weeks and remained in the 33,000 yen range
2. U.S. Year-end sales season starts well
3. The trend of decline in long-term US interest rates is clear
4. There are mixed statements made by senior US Fed officials in the pigeon faction and hawk faction
5.10 US PCE shows a slowdown in inflation
6. Powell lecture, content that is as expected but difficult to beat

The Nikkei Average fell for the first time in 5 weeks to 33,431.51 yen, 194.02 yen (0.58%) lower than the previous weekend in the Tokyo stock market last week. From observation of the end of interest rate hikes by the US Federal ReserveThe trend of decline in long-term US interest rates is clearHowever, since the Nikkei Average updated its high price after the burst of the bubble on November 20, the same as the previous weekIt was pushed by sales when it surpassed the year-to-date high。 Also, with the decline in long-term US interest rates, in the exchange marketThe depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of the yen progressedI did it.

FOMC members made a lot of remarks last week. Fed Director Waller suggested the possibility of a US interest rate cut a few months from now, and there were scenes where expectations for interest rate cuts next year were further raised, but in the latter half of the week, several senior Fed officials made negative statements about early interest rate cuts. Fed Chairman Powell said, “It's too early to speculate on the timing of monetary easing. Hawk-like statements have been repeated, saying, “If appropriate, additional tightening will be prepared.” However, it is also stated that “policy interest rates have gone deep into suppressive territory.” Previously, this point was stated as “there is no evidence that it is too suppressive right now.”I have the impression that they are slightly closer to the pigeon group than before、Content that is hard to put onWell, yes. Starting this week, FOMC members will refrain from speaking ahead of the next FOMCEntering a blackout period。

According to economic indicators, the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) core price index for October is in line with market expectations, and the growth rate has shrunk for 3 consecutive months. As demand is cooling, the US financial authoritiesDeepen confidence that inflationary pressure will continue to recede in the futureSeemed to be,Stop interest rate hikes and boost observationsIt probably will. Meanwhile, the revised US GDP (gross domestic product) value for the fiscal year ending 7/9 exceeded market expectations, and while the US Fed continues to have a high policy interest rate level, the US economy showed strength, but the Beige Book (US District Federal Reserve Bank Economic Report) announced on the same day showed a deceleration in US economic activity.