FOMC complete summary
✔ ︎ points
・The FF interest rate forecast as of the end of 2023 was left unchanged at 5.6%.
・The FF interest rate forecast for the end of '24 is 5.1%Upward correctionI did it.
・The FF interest rate forecast for the end of '25 is set to 3.9%Upward correctionI did it.
✔ ︎ FOMC statement
・Economic activity is expanding at a steady pace.
・Employment growth has slowed but is still strong,The unemployment rate also remains lowThat's it.
・The inflation rate continues to remain high.
・The financial system is sound and strong.
・There is a possibility that the tightening of household finances and corporate credit conditions will weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation
・The committee aims to maximize employment and achieve a long-term inflation rate of 2%.
• The Committee will continue to evaluate additional information and its impact on monetary policy.
・The Committee will strongly work to return the inflation rate to the 2 percent target.
・The Committee will continue to monitor the meaning of information on future economic prospects.
・The Committee will consider a wide range of information in evaluating an appropriate stance on monetary policy.
・The current monetary policy decision is unanimous.
✔ ︎ Fed Chairman
・Tackle the two responsibilities head-on.
・FOMC decisions will be made based on future data.
・The Fed will proceed carefully with interest rate decisions.
・The labor market remains tight, and the balance between supply and demand continues to improve.
・There is a long way to go to the 2% inflation target.
・I see the current monetary policy stance as restrictive.
・There are preparations for additional interest rate increases if appropriate.
・Declining inflation requires a period of below-trend growth and a slight softening of the labor market.
・Just because interest rates have remained unchangedIt doesn't mean we've reached the policy stance we're looking for。
・Economic activity is doing better than expected。
・Real interest rates are significantly positive.
・The strength of economic activity is the main reason why interest rate increases are necessary.
・It's pretty close to where it should be reached.
・There is no great importance in a single interest rate hike.
・Soft landing is not a basic scenario.
・Soft landing is the FOMC's primary goal.
・Continued rise in energy prices could have an impact on inflationThere is.
・Strikes, the closure of government agencies, the resumption of student loan payments, and a rise in long-term interest rates are among the risks.
・If the economy is stronger than expected, further action is needed.
・The natural interest rate has increasedThere's a possibility, but I still don't know.
✔ ︎ summary
・There are 12 FOMC participants who support one more rate hike by the end of the year.
・The frequency of interest rate cuts in 2024 has shrunk from the previous 4 times to 2 times.
・In the market, hawkish reception was more likely than expected.
✔ ︎ Pretend opinion
・The fact that the outlook for FF interest rates has been raised and revised is a downward pressure on the exchange rate
・I don't like the steadfastness of the Labor Mayor
・I feel concerned that inflation will remain high about high crude oil prices
・Overall closer to hawks
・At the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, if there are no surprises, it will go to 150 yen
・The US exchange rate continues to decline, mainly for growth stocks
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