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ジョモりん commented on a stock · 10 hours ago

I will talk about a hypothetical situation seriously.

I am bullish from September to the end of the year because I expect a rate cut to start during the bullish market cycle (which has been rising with high probability up until now), and I believe that there will not be an economic downturn when considering economic indicators, corporate earnings, real GDP, etc. I also consider the possibility that the returns from September to October may be higher than the returns from November to December.
I believe that most people expect the market to rise from the end of the presidential election until the end of the year, but I personally focus more on the 17-year cycle rather than the presidential election anomaly.
There are also discussions that if there is a change in government, stocks may be sold due to uncertainty...
I will talk about a hypothetical situation seriously.
During the bullish market cycle from 1980 to 1996, there were two presidential election years where power changed, so there may be ups and downs in sectors due to policy differences. However, the S&P 500 has generally shown strong returns. There are also 2 out of the 5 presidential election years where the total return from September to October is higher than that from November to December, so we must consider the possibility.
If many individual investors are thinking that stock prices will rise from around November, does that mean they believe the economy will not or has not entered a recession? If so, it is highly likely that individual investors will start buying around November. However, there are also people who think that they need to position themselves earlier than that. As for institutional investors, will they buy before that or adjust gradually to avoid excessive speculation, considering that September is expected to be bearish due to anomalies? (However, institutions cannot risk large downward movements depending on employment statistics...)
If the market is expected to rise until the end of the year, wouldn't you be a little nervous and afraid to buy if you sold or closed positions here? Especially if a strong market comes from September, wouldn't you feel a bit panicked or scared to buy?
I think it is correct to hold on to Inazuma without missing it from now on, accepting the risk from the beginning. What do you think, everyone?
I think the number one mindset to avoid is thinking that something will definitely become like this, so let's do this.
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  • USAMARU _222 : The Nikkei hit a record high several times, this year is the coming day (◍˙∞˙◍)9.

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  • tena0623 : I have read your comments.
    It feels like you mentioned that you are willing to accept the risk with a long-term holding mentality, and that I am currently unable to fully invest!

    It's because I just can't figure out the timing to invest in TSLL, and it's been going up these days despite saying I have no idea.[undefined]It would be a lie to say that I don't feel rushed.
    Although I hold SOXL, it's down, but for some reason I'm looking for a timing to buy more with a sense of security.

    Since I also asked about the shareholding percentage to Jomorin, I have decided to make SOXL and TSLL the main pillars.[undefined]

    I think both will go up, so understanding that 'making decisions, preconceptions' is the biggest noise, maybe it's important to first look at SOXL and the current TSLL calmly without deciding to hold TSLL cheaply.[undefined]

    I will take it as a reference!!

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  • ジョモりん OP USAMARU _222 : Long time no see, USAMARU![undefined]The first 3 letters of the name, Ka~Monbeibi~ ○○rika!! So lucky~[undefined]

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  • ジョモりん OP tena0623 : It's okay to call me by any name, whether it's honorific or not.[undefined]I am just an individual investor like everyone else, so we are equals. Each person should consider how much risk they can take.[undefined]I am only using the full strategy because I think it's time to be aggressive. As I mentioned yesterday, it's best to operate according to each individual's beliefs and rules.[undefined]

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  • tena0623 : Thank you very much! I can't call you by your first name only, so please call me with -san and let's continue to work together in the future!

    I have been thinking about several things over the past few months, such as the amount of risk I can take, the investment methods that involve risk, whether I will regret it or not, and whether my lifestyle is sustainable even if I lose that amount of money.

    Since it's about myself, I will make decisions based on my own responsibility, but your comments, Jomorin-san, have been very helpful, especially the rare comments that have a mental impact (I feel like there is solid evidence behind the mental impact since it's analyzed).[undefined]Thank you for your continued support!

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  • ジョモりん OP tena0623 : It is important to constantly strive for improvement.[undefined]I believe that it is important to always incorporate new information and think ahead of others when investing.[undefined]It is rare to find someone who listens attentively to others' opinions like Tena-san, so it will surely go well. Let's do our best ✨[undefined]

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ジョモりん
SOXL、TSLL、マイニング株で中長期でまずは資産1億目指しているものです┏○ﾍﾟｺｯ 鋼のメンタルは客観的データに基づくもの
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