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For me, and in consideration of market pricing via the impli...

For me, and in consideration of market pricing via the implied yield curve – November is the most likely meeting we’ll get an interest rate hike (assuming the July CPI isn’t another ‘shocker’ and the RBA hasn’t already pulled the trigger in August).
There’s also an old market wives’ tale that the RBA is more inclined to hike in November when it’s on a hike path as the November meeting generally coincides with Melbourne Cup Day. The theory here is the media will be otherwise distracted, meaning less bad press!
I’m not so sure about the reliability of the above theory, but I do place importance on the fact that if the RBA wants to hike, then November is generally their last chance to do so for a while. There’s usually a December meeting, sure, but no RBA Governor wants to hike rates a couple of weeks before Christmas! The first meeting of the new year is typically three months away in February.
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