For those who missed the live stream! Second half of 2024! What are the points and notable industries that influence the Nikkei Average?

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In the first half of 2024, the Nikkei Average rose by about 20% in the first half of the year, but it is very important to understand the factors. So what kind of stocks first drove this rise in Japanese stocks? For example,” $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$ Semiconductor-related brands such as”. Especially US stocks this year” $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$” became special demand for semiconductors due to generative AI development and data center demand, and stock prices continued to rise. If demand for semiconductors increases, equipment for manufacturing semiconductors will also be needed, so semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturers'” $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$ ” was also speculatively purchased. Also,” $Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.JP)$” also saw a 40% increase in stock prices in the first half of 2024. Needless to say, the banking business is well known, but future “profit improvements due to interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan” are expected. In particular, there is an urgent need for measures against inflation and correction of interest rate differences between Japan and the US in Japan, and the Bank of Japan is also entering a phase where it is forced to raise interest rates in earnest.

　　Furthermore, what was characteristic of the first half of 2024 was” $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$ ”” $Nintendo (7974.JP)$The stock prices of large companies that make up the Nikkei Average and companies that expand globally rose (in contrast to the Nikkei Average, the Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market 250 Index was about -7% in the first half of the year). This is because the depreciation of the yen has continued for a long time due to the Japan-US interest rate difference, and the performance of companies with high overseas sales ratios is strong. Another reason for overseas investors is that they can buy Japanese stocks at a bargain price from their own currency due to the depreciation of the yen.

Now, if we look at the rising stocks and upward factors for the first half of 2024, multiple keywords will emerge. Specifically, it would be “the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike,” “yen depreciation,” “semiconductor,” and “Japan-US interest rate difference.” Among them, the depreciation of the yen had a major impact on the rise in stock prices in the first half of the year, but on the other hand, it is expected that a reverse rotation will occur the moment the yen appreciates. In particular, with regard to the Japan-US interest rate difference, which was the cause of the depreciation of the yen, interest rate cuts within the year are currently realistic in America, and interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan are also anticipated in Japan. Furthermore, since Mr. Trump, the presidential candidate of the American Republican Party, recently made a comment to the effect that “the current depreciation of the yen should be corrected,” it is expected that the yen will appreciate after the Trump administration is born. For this reason, it is difficult to predict that this depreciation of the yen will continue for 2 or 3 years in the future, and since the yen will appreciate in the short term, it may be important to secure profits for large stocks in the Nikkei Average before the yen appreciates. However” $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$Regarding semiconductor stocks such as”, there were also benefits from the depreciation of the yen, but the impact on semiconductor demand is greater than that. For this reason, it would be better to keep a close eye on the AI market environment, NVIDIA's financial results, etc. rather than closely monitoring exchange rates. As long as NVIDIA continues to issue performance and earnings forecasts that exceed market financial expectations in the future, there is a possibility that stock prices will continue to rise.