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ジョモりん commented on a stock · 14 hours ago

From the perspective of the FRB... (´ε｀；)ｳｰﾝ...

I think many people think that 0.25 is reasonable when considering the past economic indicators comprehensively, but the consensus is different now... First of all, is there a question there?
The stock market is not particularly risk-off, rather it seems to be leaning towards risk-on based on the indicators... Is that also a question?
In the case of 0.25, I think Powell can explain well that the US economy has been stable using the past data. The financial estimates changed so much without any significant updates of economic indicators, right? Furthermore, another question...
In the case of a 0.5 rate cut, I can't see Powell making a convincing argument using the past economic data to satisfy the market... I can't see a future where that is possible.
What changed with or without that article by Nick?
If it didn't exist, the market might have welcomed the FOMC with confidence in 0.25 and moved towards a smoother increase in stock prices than now...
The article creates a situation where the market has to consider 0.5, and if there is a possibility of 0.5, is the FRB falling behind in response to the economy? Is the economy in trouble? This naturally leads to anxiety...
What has changed is that the market still thinks the economy is fine and the rate cut has started, so yay!
Just as we were starting to get into a festive mood, some doubts arose due to an article, and before we could get too carried away, the brakes were applied.
I think they wanted to prevent the stock market from overheating in the future and always keep a moderate concern about economic recession in the market, not just in September, in order to reduce the risk of inflation resurgence.
So I still think it was 0.25 this time, and I think the market wanted to continue to maintain caution, considering the possibility of 0.5 in the future.
If the Fed goes all in with a 0.5% rate cut and provides sufficient explanation to satisfy the market (I don't think they want a stock market crash), don't you think it's a bit unrealistic?
My opinion is just a wild speculation, so you can ignore it if you like.
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  • tena0623 : Creating a moderate foundation brake with articles and atmosphere... It's amazing, isn't it?[undefined]In this atmosphere, if it were 0.25, would you be able to dispel disappointment through explanation?[undefined]To suppress inflation (optimistic stock market high) and avoid a sharp decline, as the economy is not that bad, this time, including future possibilities, 0.25 is preferred. In that case, will it be possible to avoid a sharp decline?

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  • ジョモりん OP tena0623 : If it's 0.25, it's usually well-received, so even if there is a temporary sell-off, the stock price is likely to rise steadily. There is talk that the Federal Reserve Board may have intervened to slow down the pace at which the stock price was rising suddenly.[undefined]

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  • tm_speedstyle371 : Thank you very much. I believe there is an intention behind this organization to provoke at 0.5 and create a sense of disappointment at 0.25.

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  • ジョモりん OP tm_speedstyle371 : Thank you ✨ I couldn't help but think about various things because the 0.5 folding was too uncomfortable.[undefined]

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ジョモりん
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