$Fujikura (5803.JP)$ Yesterday's Fujikura was very turbulent...

Yesterday's Fujikura was quite volatile 😅

Unfortunately, as I was working, I couldn't take profits by selling...

Following the consensus beat in the previous day's earnings report, market participants reacted with buying.

Not participating in the market opening at 9 o'clock

The opening price was 6,000 yen at 9:03

The high was 6,332 yen at 9:08

A sudden drop from a 332 yen rise

The low was 5,340 yen at 10:03

Intense profit-taking sell with a price range of 992 yen.

As it was work, it is not clear whether I would have made a profit if I had been glued to the market, but I might have been hit by the profit-taking sales movements of institutional investors and others, catching it at a high price.

During the lunch break, purchased 300 shares on margin financing and securities lending, and sold 200 shares.

For the time being, the upside seems heavy, but the volume is increasing from where it is already high, and if the volume does not decrease significantly at the buying climax, the intraday price range may also be large. If you do not miss the timing of entry, it seems easy to make some pocket money, feeling that it is easy for day traders to handle.

【Personal thoughts on positive and negative factors】

☆☆☆Positive Factors☆☆☆

⭕️Buy orders placed before and after inclusion in the MSCI stock index.

⭕️ Good earnings with upward consensus also company earnings outlook is somewhat conservative, if the yen continues to weaken (Fuji's latter half exchange rate assumption is 140 yen/USD and conservative), good earnings are expected in the next earnings reports too.

Rising stock prices due to favorable earnings, exceeding consensus, leading to target price increases by institutional investors, and raising investment decisions due to announcement of upward revision.

The sales of fiber-optic cables are expanding beyond the company's expectations due to continued strong demand in the AI-related sector.

Revenue expansion due to ongoing inflation (price increases are necessary).

★★★ Negative Information ★★★

❌️ Sales of fiber-optic cables did not exceed the company's expectations.

❌️ Inability to pass on material price increases due to rapid inflation.

❌️ Preemptive buying based on positive earnings and MSCI inclusion speculation led to significant profit-taking sell-offs by institutional investors (rebalancing sell-offs due to overheating of indicators caused by excessive rise).

❌️ Concerns about deteriorating supply and demand due to individual buying at high prices.

The Trump administration, with the yen appreciating due to the Bank of Japan's policy change (Fujikura's assumption for the second half exchange rate is 140 yen/USD, conservative).

If Fujikura products are designated for U.S. tariffs by the Trump administration, there is a shock downside risk.

◇◇◇ Personal assessment at the present moment ◇◇◇

Considering Fujikura's specific situation, if the stock price falls to the 4,000 yen range, it's a buy.

After cashing out with a small profit on Black Monday, I have been buying before the August 8 earnings announcement day, taking profits and making sales, so this year's losses have been recovered. I am holding 200 shares in actual possession and 2,000 shares on margin at the current level, for swing trading – selling when it goes up and buying when it goes down.

🟡🟡🟡 Bonus 🟡🟡🟡

Finally, I will disclose the results of my own lousy trades with the current positions 😅

Fujikura has been amazing this year. In the first half of this year, when semiconductor-related stock prices and the Nikkei average were strong, Fujikura could be bought in the 1,000 yen to 2,000 yen range, so those who bought a lot have probably made significant profits.