Future outlook
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Isn't the current state of affairs very good about this product from before? It is written as I think everyone has a different way of thinking about investment, so of course I don't want to deny it. Why would you buy this product in the current environment? I think the moment buyers gather is probably the timing where everyone expects “rapid interest rate cuts will be necessary,” but the current situation is the exact opposite, isn't it? If the way of thinking is that interest rate cuts are close, I understand that buyers flock to gold and emerging countries, but this product, which originally leverages bonds that have relatively little price movement and are often bought with a hedging mindset, is extremely difficult, and I think it is extremely dangerous if the assumptions are blurred. I used to be a holder of this product, so I wonder if there was a drastic cut in interest rates last year? I was buying it because I thought about it, but when I looked at the indicators, it became suspicious, so I sold everything as of the end of the year. Aren't interest rate cuts coming now in the future? Considering this expectation and global political instability, I feel that gold mining stocks are more likely if we take risks. As mentioned earlier, I would like to buy $TMF at a timing that anticipates drastic interest rate cuts in the near future, an upward phase towards the end of last year, or a significant rebound phase after the ○○ shock (assuming that all assets including bonds crashed like the Lehman shock) occurred. Long-term bonds are also gradually becoming attractive in terms of yield, but in that case, I think I would choose an ETF without leverage. There are also examples from the past where many years have passed without the economy going bankrupt under high interest rates, so it is necessary to carefully consider the risks that can be taken. I'm sorry for the bad post.
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あなたのはレビオサー : Everyone here knows it's not good to dabble in TMF right now, they even make it to TMF
Aren't most people wondering what to do with things they've already dabbled in?
I think there are many people who interact because they want to sort out their feelings even though losses, including deductions, are study fees
I don't think I need to cut my losses though
masao4192 : aren't they cutting interest rates for the presidential election? if Trump wins, isn't he going to cut interest rates? I'm buying Nampin because of that thought.
I think there are fewer interest rate cuts than I had imagined at the end of last year, but I don't think people around $50 need to cut losses.
アマチュア投資家 OP あなたのはレビオサー : I feel like I've come to terms with what you said. On SNS, etc., the truth is unknown, but comments such as throwing a lot of money into this brand and leaving it alone for a while are often scattered, so why do they think about that? That's because it was strange. I'm not sure if it's right to cut losses at current levels.
アマチュア投資家 OP masao4192 : I've been looking at the market price, and I've learned that it's quite difficult to go against “the Fed is wrong” or “let's outsmart people,” so I just try to seize market trends and ride the waves. The only way to survive in a world where incredible geniuses from around the world are cutting corners is to have time on your side, and that's all you can do. However, as I said, no one knows what will happen, and although the timing is unknown, the turning point in the market price will probably come somewhere.
アマチュア投資家 OP : Something like this... “it will definitely go up, so let's be serious without selling it!” It's a scene I often saw during the Levanas boom, and I don't know if “it's not scary if we all cross the red light,” but it's a feeling that it hit rock bottom when that voice gradually disappeared. I think this $TMF product is really difficult, but once the trend starts, it feels like it will continue for a while, so it's strictly prohibited to try it out during a downturn, but I think it's a stock that can be held on once an upward trend starts.
あなたのはレビオサー : I'm sorry for the opinion of someone who is probably more advanced than me
I think everyone is growing little by little, starting with the index, and then starting to know technology and look at economic indicators and FOMC in the process of expanding their investment horizons into commodities and receivables
There is no doubt that they will lose money along the way, and they will try their hand at reba products by showing off their sex appeal
But I think it's a pretty necessary experience to grow or estimate risk tolerance
By the way, I lost a lot in the Nikkei Double Inverse, but it was the most important experience lol
Everyone didn't know at first
Testimonials from people who have purchased like the Lord are invaluable
I think the quality of bulletin boards will improve by exchanging information, including advice
Incidentally, I have set (saved in US and India mutual funds) (EDV, TMF, JEPQ) (cash) 1:1:1.
Cash is set aside for bargains and emotional stability
アマチュア投資家 OP あなたのはレビオサー : Thank you for your valuable feedback
I don't think of myself as an advanced person at all, and similarly, I have lost money with leveraged products in the past
It's a process of learning about market prices, so I think it's certainly necessary to experience all kinds of failures
Even so, I feel that there are many people dabbling in such high-risk products without risk management, such as not knowing the contents well and pouring in most of their assets, and comments from influencers and bulletin boards recommending this product with clearly misinterpretations are also scattered, so I just made a comment
I will use the opinions received as a reference
akipi_ : I thought it was a good discussion, so I'm going to participate.
I think you're absolutely right.
You should be able to understand right away that all bets are too dangerous after holding a small amount for a month
I'm watching it because I think it would be good for people to comment because they can't watch their best pitch on TMF. I'm rooting for you.
However, I think it's a good brand for amateur investors who are fully committed to the S&P 500 and Orkan to buy a small amount with the intention of insurance.
Personally, I think investing money is more delicious when it comes to insurance, but that is an individual's opinion
アマチュア投資家 OP akipi_ : Thanks for commenting.
I wrote it with the intention of criticizing it, and I am happy that your intention was taken into account.
I was concerned that interest rate cuts are close, so they will definitely go up (no risk is possible in the first place), and when I saw inflammatory comments, that inexperienced people would easily think things like it was OK to buy with all their might and leave them alone, and it would be irretrievable. The main point is that if you see it as an opinion, it will be an opportunity to think a little bit.
As you said, I'm not denying this product at all, and even from my previous experience of buying and selling, I always watch it if I want to buy it somewhere. There are risks, but I think it will rise significantly when it finally comes.
I was also encouraged by the warm comments.
I hope we both get good results!
Last banker : The dividend has also reached 3.8%, and although I think it's an attractive level, things are going to be endless.
It's a winning level
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