GB200 order update: Microsoft’s demand exceeds total orders from other CSPs, 4Q24 orders significantly increase 3–4 times; Microsoft’s supply chain becomes investment focus

Conclusions:
Microsoft’s demand for GB200 surpasses the total orders from other CSPs, with 4Q24 orders significantly increasing by 3–4 times.
Microsoft’s GB200 key component suppliers will begin mass production and shipment in 4Q24, contributing to their supply chain’s performance earlier than other CSPs.
Revenue recognition for Microsoft’s GB200 key component suppliers will precede the assembly supplier's, as key components will ship regardless of the assembly supplier’s ability to meet Microsoft’s 4Q24 demand.

Industry survey and updates:
Blackwell chip production ramp-up begins in early 4Q24. Considering yield rates and testing efficiency, estimated shipments are about 150,000–200,000 units in 4Q24, with significant growth projected at 200–250% QoQ to 500,000–550,000 units in Q1 2025.
Microsoft is currently the most aggressive customer in procuring GB200. In addition to the original 4Q24 GB200 NVL36 orders (for testing mainly), Microsoft recently planned to acquire customized GB200 NVL72 units before Nvidia DGX GB200 NVL72 (also known as the reference design) enters mass production (mid-2Q25).
Microsoft’s 4Q24 GB200 orders have recently surged 3–4 times from the previous 300–500 racks (mainly NVL36) to about 1,400–1,500 racks (about 70% NVL72). Subsequent Microsoft orders will primarily focus on NVL72.
Regardless of whether the sole assembler Foxconn’s capacity can meet Microsoft’s 4Q24 GB200 demand, the company has recently discussed 4Q24 capacity expansion (about 1.5–2 times or more than the original capacity) with key component suppliers and prepared for early stock-up.
According to surveys of the two largest GB200 assembly suppliers, Foxconn and Quanta, Microsoft’s GB200 orders currently appear to exceed the total orders from other CSPs.
Microsoft will initially deploy GB200 in data centers with lower temperatures (such as Washington state in the US, Quebec City in Canada, Helsinki in Finland, etc.) to proactively mitigate potential impacts from insufficient time to optimize the cooling system fully.
Other CSP orders, such as Amazon’s 300–400 racks of GB200 NVL36 in 4Q24 and Meta’s architecture focusing on Ariel rather than Bianca, have significantly lower order volumes than Microsoft. It’s important to note that this doesn’t necessarily indicate conservatism from other CSPs but that Microsoft’s current demand for GB200 is significantly higher than that of other CSPs.