GDP Modeling

By last week's end, under the weight of a mountain of disappointing macroeconomic results... The Atlanta Fed was forced to revise their real-time GDPNow model for the second quarter to growth of 1.5% (q/q, SAAR) down from 3.3% just a couple of weeks ago. The Atlanta Fed's model had been an upside outlier basically all quarter long and the New York, St. Louis and Cleveland Feds' models had all been running significantly lower. Coming out of the weekend, for Q2 2024, the New York Fed now sees the second quarter growing 1.79%, down from 1.93% last Monday, the St. Louis Fed is now at +0.68%, down from +0.76%, and the Cleveland Fed is still at +0.69%. St. Louis, by the way... has run the most accurate model among the four of late.