Thursday, December 5th, Tesla's after-hours review chart geometric analysis: growing together with the king of high-tech growth stocks.
Roses do not need to grow tall, the sunset will bow on its own, love runs with the wind, gently overflowing the mountainside.
Having nothing, what is there to fear?
Alone still, but I am only myself.
Aspire to die and be born.
Admiring the butterfly's graceful flight, seeking the scent of flowers. The dance of butterflies and the flourishing of flowers fulfill the desires of all, yet how can it not be me, embracing solitude.
Thousands of butterflies in love with flowers, but I, without a flower, foolishly yearn for a butterfly. Persisting in youthful and naive thoughts, dreaming of flowers and illusory butterflies. It may be ridiculous, like honey troubles, not knowing da ha ha, self-mockery, hmm hmm true knowledge?
Longing for you, the one I foolishly desire in dreams, the one who is carefree amidst the hustle and bustle, living with a free heart, with a resilient and steadfast path. But like a mayfly, living and dying in a day, as the centuries turn, without sharing life with me.
Willing to join hands and move forward together?
After visiting Tesla's Austin factory, Bank of America gave a $400 target price.
BofA analyst John Murph expressed confidence in Tesla's growth prospects for 2025 and beyond, with autonomous driving and robotics businesses leading the growth. FSD is making significant progress, adoption rates are increasing, and Optimus development is expected to accelerate. New models next year will expand the total addressable market (TAM).
Tesla set a two-year high overnight, with many brokerages raising their target prices. After Bank of America analyst visited Tesla's Texas Gigafactory.The target stock price of Tesla has been raised to $400 by Bank of America, up by 50.
Bank of America analyst John Murph stated in a report on Thursday:
After visiting Elon Musk's super factory in Austin, Texas, USA, including meeting with the investor relations department, factory tour, and test drive experience, I am confident in its growth prospects for 2025 and beyond, as I believe autonomous driving and robotics businesses will lead the growth.
Murph further stated:
Tesla is expected to continue to improve its profit margin. Currently, the profit margin is mainly driven by hardware, but with the growth of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and charging services, it will shift more towards value-added software.
It is expected that Tesla's sales revenue will reach $123.171 billion in 2026, with an improvement in operating margin. Net income and free cash flow are expected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2026. We reiterate a buy rating and raise the target price from $350 to $400, based on a multiple of 60 times enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA).
Significant progress has been made in the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, and the development of Optimus is expected to accelerate.
Murph pointed out in the report:Tesla has demonstrated significant progress in FSD technology and is expected to launch an autonomous driving rental service in the future.：
Tesla的FSD技术在异常路况下表现出色，预计干预频率将降至每0.01 million英里一次，这接近安全推出自动驾驶出租车业务的要求。
作为参考，Waymo的机器人出租车服务在达到每17000英里干预一次的里程碑之前就已经在运营，Tesla相信随着其Artificial Intelligence（人工智能）计算能力（截至10月底已安装并激活50000个H100芯片）的增长，它将很快达到这一里程碑。
展望明年，Murph预计，新车型将扩大可获取市场总规模（TAM），全自动驾驶（FSD）的采用率正在增加：
Tesla计划在2025年上半年推出一款成本更低的车型，这将增加可获取市场总规模，预计这款车的成本将低于0.03 million美元，包括目前在美国可获得的7500美元电动汽车税收抵免。Tesla还确认，低成本车型不会是其2025年唯一的新车型。
此外，FSD的采用率正在上升，截至2023年第一季度，Tesla在1.8 million辆符合条件的车辆上有0.4 million订阅用户，在2024年第二季度和第三季度，订阅用户的数量增长速度超过了符合条件的车辆数量。Tesla之前曾为FSD收取几千美元的预付费用，但自从改为订阅模式后，FSD的采用率增长得更快。
In addition, the development of Optimus may accelerate, as Murph stated:
Optimus is currently used for sorting 4680 battery cells inside the factory and is being tested in various scenarios. Tesla plans to deploy 1000 Optimus robots in its factories by the end of 2025, with Optimus currently accounting for only a single-digit percentage of Tesla's computing resources. With the maturity of robotaxi technology, this will accelerate the development of robotic technology and improve production efficiency in 2026 and beyond.
Summary of observations on a large number of trading orders:
1. In the stock market, the proportion of abnormal people is large (not making perpetual motion and perpetual motion machines);
2. Do not go crazy (risking all of life on the stock market);
3. One-track phenomenon (obsessing over a certain stock, a specific price, or a particular style. Tesla is a high-technology growth stock, an exception, encouraging long-term holding);
4. Winner's mindset (timing with the trend, thinking in terms of high probability, multiple reasons pass, advantage mindset). The most important technology in investment is statistical regularities, utilizing regularities, and holding a general and objectively effective stage profit model with timing along with the trend.
What are the main tools of the relatively accurate framework for investing and trading weapon libraries, both soft and hard?
1. Baum-Welch algorithm model. Requires improvement and practical application.
2. Hidden Markov model. Requires improvement and practical application.
3. Quantitative calculation of the differential geometric trajectory equation of the profit chip ratio function.
4. Setting of parameters (also called variable parameters), and how to make correct and reasonable choices within a relatively reasonable range when quantification is not possible.
5. Deep understanding of the original weaknesses of human nature as mentioned by God in the Bible – greed and fear, the ability to interpret the human nature and psychology behind key candlestick patterns in key candlestick charts (not quantifiable).
Choose symbols worthy of ownership and investment with long-term upward trends.
Trust stocks for investment, do not invest in doubtful stocks.
In most cases, giving timely help is more important and meaningful than adding beauty to the already beautiful.
Sharing the big rise in stocks: Billionaire Ronald Stephen Baron predicts,Tesla's future price is expected to increase sixfold to $1500!
The most important and core thing is to overcome the trials of time and space in major fluctuations, especially in significant downward movements, with unwavering beliefs.
The vast majority of people cannot do it, due to the human weaknesses - greed and fear. The stock god Warren Edward Buffett is not a role that anyone can handle. Similarly, the gambling god James Harris Simons, who has outperformed the stock god Warren Edward Buffett and financial giant George Soros for 27 consecutive years, is also beyond the reach of one of the world's top mathematicians. Applied mathematics is particularly challenging, as seen by how the youngest James Harris Simons passed away before the older Warren Edward Buffett and George Soros. Many people especially despise theoretical physics and applied mathematics, not to mention pure mathematics.
Adding positions: buy on declines, not on rallies; reducing positions: sell on rallies, not on declines.
Buy on dips and declines, systematically and gradually, in stages, with a discrete random variable approach for position building.
Establish a defensive fund and a deep fall repurchase fund;
More than 60% of the positions are used for medium to long-term value investments;
Not more than 30% of the positions are used for short-term trend air combat;
With investment as the main focus, and trading as the secondary, a surgical and relatively accurate framework investment trading approach.
Buy on dips and declines, systematically and gradually, in stages, with a discrete random variable approach for position building.
Establish a defensive fund and a deep fall repurchase fund;
More than 60% of the positions are used for medium to long-term value investments;
Not more than 30% of the positions are used for short-term trend air combat;
With investment as the main focus, and trading as the secondary, a surgical and relatively accurate framework investment trading approach.
If you study theoretical physics, you will know that the projects under Elon Musk are not only a complete Artificial Intelligence industry chain, but also almost all involve a higher level dominant industry of the next 30-50 years—quantum technology revolution.
If you are studying applied mathematics, you can understand that this listed company has extraordinary actions and lofty goals through function-level quantitative analysis. It is far from what you can see now and imagine. The crux of the problem lies in the fact that the range of variables that can be set is too large. If you cannot coexist with uncertainty, deny, and refuse the emerging things still in a vague stage, you will also lose your future.
If you are studying applied mathematics, you can understand that this listed company has extraordinary actions and lofty goals through function-level quantitative analysis. It is far from what you can see now and imagine. The crux of the problem lies in the fact that the range of variables that can be set is too large. If you cannot coexist with uncertainty, deny, and refuse the emerging things still in a vague stage, you will also lose your future.
Investment trading arbitrage ultimately depends on the results, isn't it? When you look at it from a lifelong perspective, what you see is the era and human nature, and what you see is the law.
When you look at it from a ten-year perspective, what you see is common sense and rule changes.
When you look at it from a three-year or five-year perspective, what you see is courage and foresight.
When you look at it from a one-year perspective, you will believe in talent and ability.
If you look at it from a daily perspective and you don't have a background in theoretical physics and applied mathematics, you are likely to see nothing and only rely on miracles and luck.
Being both fallen people in the stock world, why do we need to blow our own horns when we meet again?
When you look at it from a ten-year perspective, what you see is common sense and rule changes.
When you look at it from a three-year or five-year perspective, what you see is courage and foresight.
When you look at it from a one-year perspective, you will believe in talent and ability.
If you look at it from a daily perspective and you don't have a background in theoretical physics and applied mathematics, you are likely to see nothing and only rely on miracles and luck.
Being both fallen people in the stock world, why do we need to blow our own horns when we meet again?
Investment master Peter Lynch said:"In the past 70 years of history, there have been 40 stock market crashes. Even if I predicted 39 of them in advance and sold all stocks before the crash, I would still regret it greatly. Because, even in the worst stock market crash, stock prices will eventually rise back, and rise even higher than before."
Excellent companies will continue to achieve historical highs, can withstand bull and bear markets. For excellent companies, bear markets are only temporary, bull markets are eternal.
Tesla started at $1.13 per share on June 29, 2010, incurring losses and being unprofitable... lingering at a low stock price for a long time, over 90% of the original participants sold their cheap Tesla stocks in deep disappointment. It wasn't until August 26, 2018, about 8 years later, that Tesla skyrocketed to a peak of $371.
Is it difficult to hold stocks for 6-8 years? (Do what you like or what you should do, right?)
This is almost a 33,000% increase...
Excellent companies will continue to achieve historical highs, can withstand bull and bear markets. For excellent companies, bear markets are only temporary, bull markets are eternal.
Tesla started at $1.13 per share on June 29, 2010, incurring losses and being unprofitable... lingering at a low stock price for a long time, over 90% of the original participants sold their cheap Tesla stocks in deep disappointment. It wasn't until August 26, 2018, about 8 years later, that Tesla skyrocketed to a peak of $371.
Is it difficult to hold stocks for 6-8 years? (Do what you like or what you should do, right?)
This is almost a 33,000% increase...
Instead of liking random predictions without technical basis support, being bullish and bearish, it's better to steadily buy on dips, with a plan and step by step, in gradients and batches, dealing with discrete random variables, and laying out positions. Speculation can never beat strategic investment.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。
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