Gold Vs S&P 500 Every 25 Years
Gold Glitters, but does it deliver all the time? A rolling 25 year look back provides more perspective
is a chance to dive into the rolling 25-year performance of Gold vs. the S&P 500 since 1978.
But here’s the kicker: no single asset class, especially not Gold, is your golden ticket to investment success. Since 1978, over any rolling 25-year period, gold has only just edged out the S&P 500 when you cherry-pick starting at the Dotcom crash and includes the GFC and all the other market plunges in between. Outside of this recent period, gold has averaged around 6% annualized, with its best shot hitting just over 8%. Meanwhile, equities have never delivered negative returns over a 25-year period in the last nearly 50 years. Even in the worst-case scenario, you’d have locked in 7% annualized if you started with an investment any month after 1978 while gold you would have been down.
So yes, gold is having its moment and deserves a place but it has lots of moving parts that go beyond just the Fed and Central bank purchases , like that nearly 50% of its demand comes from Jewelry demand. Diversification is key, but equities? They’ve earned the bigger slice of the pie.
How to read the chart :
• The first blue circle for S&P 500 and yellow triangle for Goldis in January 2004 is the annualized return looking back 25 years to Jan 1978, and each subsequent circle/triangle data shifts one month forward.
• Worst 25 year return:
For Gold: -2% annualized
For Equities (S&P 500): +7% annualized
• Best 25 year return:
For S&P 500: +14%
For Gold: +9% (recent high)
is a chance to dive into the rolling 25-year performance of Gold vs. the S&P 500 since 1978.
But here’s the kicker: no single asset class, especially not Gold, is your golden ticket to investment success. Since 1978, over any rolling 25-year period, gold has only just edged out the S&P 500 when you cherry-pick starting at the Dotcom crash and includes the GFC and all the other market plunges in between. Outside of this recent period, gold has averaged around 6% annualized, with its best shot hitting just over 8%. Meanwhile, equities have never delivered negative returns over a 25-year period in the last nearly 50 years. Even in the worst-case scenario, you’d have locked in 7% annualized if you started with an investment any month after 1978 while gold you would have been down.
So yes, gold is having its moment and deserves a place but it has lots of moving parts that go beyond just the Fed and Central bank purchases , like that nearly 50% of its demand comes from Jewelry demand. Diversification is key, but equities? They’ve earned the bigger slice of the pie.
How to read the chart :
• The first blue circle for S&P 500 and yellow triangle for Goldis in January 2004 is the annualized return looking back 25 years to Jan 1978, and each subsequent circle/triangle data shifts one month forward.
• Worst 25 year return:
For Gold: -2% annualized
For Equities (S&P 500): +7% annualized
• Best 25 year return:
For S&P 500: +14%
For Gold: +9% (recent high)
$Barclays Bank Plc Ipath Etn 24/06/38 Dj-Ubs Lead (LD.US)$ $ISHARES GOLD TRUST MICRO (IAUM.US)$ $Gold Trust Ishares (IAU.US)$ $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ $Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$ $Global X Metal Securities Australia (GOLD.AU)$ $VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF (GDX.US)$ $ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL.US)$ $ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL.US)$ $U.S. Gold Corp (USAU.US)$ $U.S. Gold Corp (USAU.US)$
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Brianjh
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EZ_money : everyone knows JP Morgan associates were nonstop pushing the price of gold down shorting it for decades. they even been busted and paid fines for manipulation on gold. they lost control of that because China took over the gold market and probably owns more than the United States now. they are pegging gold to BRICs so they are allowing Gold to go to it's more realistic values
151604459 EZ_money : Dare say on top of that people are seeing BRICS as a direct threat to US dollar reserve currency trading. Also the USA debt of $36 trillion and money printing, and wars. People are seeing FIAT currency as holding a deflationary unit or money, crypto also barged in heavily last 10 years. Right now in these unsure times, untrusting of politics, fiat, moneymen/bankers gold is a safe place. It was tipped to go to 3K by many 4 years ago. The bankers are losing the fight with fiat USD as ordinary folk can just click on trading apps and shift their money unlike pre-internet days. So gold is benefiting from a more diverse landscape of choices than pre-internet days..... and likely to appeal with many ETFs in both physical gold or mining gold. the more people who shift their "lazy" money from 3% savings accounts to gold the more the price will rise
EZ_money 151604459 : I'm into physical probably went too heavy but sleep well knowing it's the only asset that's lasted for thousands of years in demand that could be used for buying when necessary so basically currency that's been in demand going way back to Sumerian civilization before the pyramids were built
mirzaquna EZ_money : What is your prediction for the future price of gold?
EZ_money mirzaquna : I'm hearing when central banks are done buying it up, that's why it's been going up while rate hikes over the few years central banks buying in record amounts for last tew years.. when they are ready to push the reset gold will be revaluated like twice in past history IMF will reset it... I'm hearing 5K, 10K...if they had to cover for every dollar printed we'd be around 58K per ounce. they have reset gold's prices two times in the past so it's going to happen again they have to in order to deal with the collapse of fiat money
EZ_money mirzaquna : but conservative and fair price 3500 by july 2025 I'm saying. i thought it would hit 3K EOY but feds messing around with rates. might not be until early next year
mirzaquna EZ_money : so, Now is the time to buy right? Gold prices are depressed and it looks like big money is flowing into stocks
EZ_money mirzaquna : definitely buy the dips that are worthy I'd say and hold for 6 months 1 year. I'm hearing that gold bull market could last longer look at the lifetime chart ...if you can read charts it's useful