Goldman Sachs: iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max lead times suggest demand outpacing supply

Apple pre-orders for the iPhone 15 family of devices started on Friday, September 15 with e-commerce fulfillment dates by Apple quickly moving from the launch date on 9/22 to in excess of 8 weeks for select phones & regions, suggesting that demand is outpacing supply. The iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max are seeing the longest lead times across all regions, while the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus are generally seeing more normal lead times, with the exception of the iPhone 15 Plus in pink which is seeing lead times of 4 weeks in the US. Goldman Sachs view the extended lead times for the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max as a positive indication of consumer demand and for increasing price/mix, but recognize that there is little transparency into supply, which could be impacted by potential supply chain constraints, particularly in the Pro Max. Separately, Goldman Sachs feels encouraged by US carrier promotions available for the iPhone 15 family of devices, which appear largely consistent with year-ago and provide opportunities for consumers to cover the full purchase price of a new phone with an eligible trade-in; that said, the most attractive promotions require consumers to have - or upgrade to - some of the carrier’s newer, more expensive plans.

Apple opened pre-orders for the iPhone 15 family of devices on September 15 at 5 AM PDT in more than 40 regions, including the U.S., China, and India, for availability starting September 22. The iPhone 15 family of devices will be available in 21 additional markets starting September 29.

iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max shipping delays suggest that demand is outpacing supply. In the US, the iPhone 15 Pro Max saw its deliveries delayed from September 22 to as late as mid-November for select colors. The iPhone 15 Pro is seeing fulfillment delays to mid-October, while the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus will generally be available at launch, with the exception of the pink color 6.7” iPhone 15 Plus. As a reminder, the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max include more significant feature upgrades including a faster chip (A17), design improvements (e.g., titanium frame, thinner bezels, a new Action button to replace the ring/silent switch, and a periscope camera to enable 5X optical zoom (see AAPL: September Special Event review: iPhone 15 & Watch Series 9 + Ultra 2 announcement). Goldman Sachs view the extending lead times for the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max as a positive indication of consumer demand and for increasing price/mix, but recognize that there is little transparency into available supply and potential supply chain constraints are a risk, particularly in the Pro Max

By region, mainland China is experiencing some of the longest lead times across Pro and Pro Max. While the iPhone 15 is expected to be available at launch across all colors in mainland China, the iPhone 15 Plus is currently seeing lead times of ~2 weeks, iPhone 15 Pro has lead times of ~4.5 weeks, and the iPhone 15 Pro Max has lead times of 6-8 weeks depending on the color way. Although there are caveats to extrapolating delivery lead times to consumer demand, Goldman Sachs feels encouraged by what appears to be strong demand, particularly against the backdrop of heightened competition from Huawei