$GOOGL reports Tuesday, Wednesday is $META and $MSFT and Thursday is $AMZN and $AAPL.

The ordering of reports I think is important with Google results setting expectations On Tuesday for many of the quarterly reports later in the week.
$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$
Google’s stock dropped 5% on 7/24 the day after reporting Q2 results that included a 3% miss on Youtube revenues and a cut to overall forward revenue estimates despite strong Google Cloud results. In addition, unfavorable anti-trust court rulings & more concerns of share loss helped drive the stock down an additional 4% between 7/24 -10/25 versus the 7% gain in the S&P and 11% gain in the Magnificent 7 on average. However, I think Google on Tuesday may report a solid Q3 with solid Google Cloud results helped by strong political ad spend.

Google does not formally give forward guidance but does occasionally give qualitative commentary. This could be where the risk is:
1) I believe the Presidential election this year will divert consumer attention from spending as much time online.
2) Thanksgiving is on November 28th this year versus the 23rd last year which leaves less days between Black Friday and Christmas for online shopping ads.
However, taken in total, I think the Google results will spark a relief rally especially if there is no qualitative forward guidance. Google trades at a historically inexpensive 22x CY24 PE versus the S&P at 25x and Meta at 27x.
Google’s results will have some impact to expectations to varying degrees on the other Magnificent 7 names set to report this week:

1) Google ad strength has implications for META ad revenues
2) Google Cloud growth has implications for Microsoft Azure & Amazon Web Services
3) Google’s Traffic Acquistion Cost has implications for $Apple (AAPL.US)$ services revenues though this is much less important than iPhone results
But this does not change my longer-term view that for the next several years:

1) Google is likely to show continuing share loss as consumers switch from search engines where they have nearly 90% share to answer engines powered by other AI companies.
2) Youtube advertising dollars are likely to remain under pressure as ad supported streaming tiers from Netflix, Amazon Prime and Disney+ continue to ramp
3) Google ultimately not being able to pay to remain the default search engine on Apple iPhones will also affect their search share

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$
Meta on Wednesday I also think benefits from election ad spend. This has been the name I have been most bullish on consistently all year given they are arguably using AI the best. Meta is using AI to drive both engagement and monetization of ads. Expectations for their results continue to ratchet higher and I think will go even higher after Google results the prior day. Meta also frequently guides expense growth and capex for the subsequent year when they report Q3 and sets a conservative bar which they can then beat. However, this frequently sparks a short-term selloff in the stock and $META is up 62% YTD with a 27x PE.

$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$
Microsoft results on Wednesday I think could be mixed. Expectations are low which is positive but I do not think co-pilot demand is particularly robust. Having said that, after reclassifying revenue segments during the quarter, it will be much harder to make historical comparisons for important line items like Azure which missed expectations for the June quarter despite their relationship with OpenAI. It would also not surprise me to see capex forecasts go up again with a warning that related revenues will take a longer time frame to materialize. At a 35x CY24 PE, the stock is not inexpensive.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$
While Amazon results on Thursday are likely fine, I am cautious on their guidance for Q4 for 3 reasons:
1) There are only 25 days (and 3 weekends) between Thanksgiving and Christmas-Eve versus 31 days last year (and 4 weekends) which may lead to more brick and mortar shopping.
2) Amazon announced it is hiring only 250K seasonal, part-time, and full-time employees across its US fulfillment and transportation operations for the holiday season but this is the same number as in 2023 which saw a strong 100K increase versus 2022.
3) I believe the Presidential election this year will also divert consumer attention from shopping in Q4 versus last year.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$
I am cautious, but so is everyone else, on Apple giving soft revenue guidance on Thursday for the December quarter, which is typically given on the earnings call. As an example, Keybanc cut the stock rating to sell on Friday (one of only 3 sell ratings out of 60) and Apple shares rose 36 bps despite a 3 bps decline in the S&P. It is possible the stock, like with the downgrade, ignores yet another guidance cut given expectations have already been lowered:
1) Commentary on iPhone lead times being lower than last year since its launch have lowered expectations on demand
2) Multiple Wall Street firms have talked about cuts to future build plans for iPhones and lowered forward estimates
3) Commentary from the supply chain have not been that bullish either such as at $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ , the primary manufacturer of chips for Apple
4) The Q3 upgrade rates which I wrote about last week from $Verizon (VZ.US)$ $AT&T (T.US)$ $T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)$ were all low with no particularly bullish commentary on AI driving an upgrade cycle.
5) Hope for an improvement in AI driven upgrade demand have been tempered. But I am sure Apple will talk bullishly about its potential as Apple Intelligence rolls out over 2025 in foreign markets with the potential for continuous AI software updates to improve the inherent value of the device.
6) The stock has ignored prior cuts to future revenue estimates as the multiple has expanded to 33x trailing from a low of 21x in mid-2022. This could potentially happen again.

As always, the key will be to remain intellectually flexible and data dependent. As Niels Bohr, the Nobel laureate in Physics, said: “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!”