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Tesla missed Q4 delivery targets: What's next?
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Correct mindset: Comparing Tesla and BYD Q4 2024 delivery

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$
1) The purpose of this article is to use a correct mindset when comparing BEV (battery electric vehicle) delivery between Tesla and BYD in Q4 2024.
2) The legacy media including CNEVPost reported that BYD has overtaken Tesla in the BEV for Q4 2024
BYD sold a higher number of 595,413 passenger BEVs in the fourth quarter, marking the second time it has overtaken Tesla in the BEV market after the fourth quarter of 2023.
Correct mindset: Comparing Tesla and BYD Q4 2024 delivery
But if you read carefully, Tesla delivered more BEV than BYD for the entire year. But the information is put almost in the last paragraph.
For the full year 2024, BYD sold 1,764,992 passenger BEVs worldwide, close to Tesla's 1,789,226.
Correct mindset: Comparing Tesla and BYD Q4 2024 delivery
3) If you follow the news closely, you will find out that legacy media will only compare the quarterly delivery of Tesla and BYD if the latter has record sales. They didn't report Tesla had regained the crown and surpassed BYD for BEV delivery in Q1 to Q3 2024.
4) Someone may argue that BYD delivered more electric vehicles than Tesla if you include PHEV (plug-in electric vehicles).
Including BEVs and PHEVs, BYD sold 1,513,969 passenger new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the fourth quarter, up 60.61 percent year-on-year and up 34.07 percent from the third quarter.
However if you compare sales figures with different vehicle types, Toyota should take the crown. The automaker has already sold 11.2 million cars in 2023 globally - BEV, PHEV and ICE (internal combustion engine). Why didn't the media report Toyota beats BYD or Tesla in delivery?
Source:
Toyota Holds Lead as World’s No. 1 Automaker for Fourth Year - Bloomberg
4) While comparing the delivery number, it is important to check the profitability of the company.
4.1 Analysis of third quarter financial statements reveals that Tesla is the #2 most profitable large automaker globally. BYD is ranked #10. BYD gained market share by cutting the price of vehicles - the "regains" the BEV delivery crown is at the expense of its profit margin.
4.2 In its full-year 2023 earnings report l, BYD posted an 18.6 percent profit increase in Q4, marking its slowest growth rate since Q1 2022. We are still waiting for the full-year 2024 earnings report.
Correct mindset: Comparing Tesla and BYD Q4 2024 delivery
Source:
1. BYD had its slowest profit growth in two years in Q4 - Teslarati
2. Tesla is the #2 most profitable large automaker globally (BYD #10)
5) Despite the low margin in making cars, BYD's business model is still a successful one.
5.1 Beside electric vehicles,  the company also produces automotive components, forklifts, rechargeable batteries, photovoltaic systems, handsets and  components, semiconductors, monorail systems. Unknown to many, BYD has a bus factory in California (source from Wikipedia). BYD is one of the battery suppliers of Tesla.
5.2 The Tesla business model is electric vehicles, Powerwall, Megapack, Solar Panels and Solar Roof. The company is pushing to introduce FSD (autonomous driving), humanoid robots and robotaxi service but they are still at the developing stage.
6) The main reason for the BYD's record sales is it has a strong base in the China market.
6.2 According to CNEVPost, BYD's sales came mainly from its home market in China. It sold 119,323 NEVs in overseas markets in Q4 2024, accounting for only about 8% of all NEV sales, including commercial vehicles.
6.3 On the other hand,  Tesla mainly delivers EV to 15 countries and the delivery spreads across regions like the US, China, Canada, countries in Europe and Australia. Tesla superchargers are available in more than 49 countries in 2024.
7) Like all Chinese EV makers, BYD is struggling to expand the EV business overseas.
7.1 In 2024, BYD was slapped with tariffs by many countries including the US, EU, Canada, Brazil and Turkey. EU imposed near 20% tariff on BYD citing heavy subsidies from the Chinese government. By comparison, tariffs imposed on Tesla EV made in China only 9%. 
7.2 BYD halted the building of a factory in Mexico when the government removed subsidies for chinese factories based in the country. Although BYD has built a factory in Thailand and is planning to build another in Hungary (estimate to complete in 2027), critics say it has no intention of transferring the core technology - just an assembly factory and to avoid tariffs.
Source:
1. EU revises tariffs SAIC 38.1 > 37.6% Geely 20 > 19.8% BYD remain as 20%
2. Tesla EU Tariffs Drop to 9% for China-Made Vehicles
8) My Take:
8.1 Legacy media like to report BYD overtake Tesla for quarterly BEV delivery is mainly for click baits. They have no intention to report Tesla has a higher BEV delivery for the entire year in 2024 or when Tesla regained the crown.
8.2 As a retail investor, we should not let the legacy media dictate how we look at the delivery figure. It is important to DYODD and looks into the reasons behind the record sales: increase market share at the expense of the profitability, the regions the EV makers are selling to,  the subsidies the company received from the government and the consequences of higher tariffs imposed by other countries.
8.3 Strictly speaking, the business model of Tesla and BYD are quite different and they can both be successful. We should not look at it as a zero sum game.
Source:
Tesla delivers 495,570 cars globally in Q4, full-year 2024 deliveries fall for 1st time in over a decade - CNEVPost
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