Is Trump's advance taking over the stock market? Who will be the winners in the Trump market?

Gun violence further strengthens "Trump-related transactions"It seems that according to Polymarket, the probability of donald trump winning the November election has increased by about 10 points since the shooting incident, reaching 70%. On the other hand, the probability of rival Biden winning has further decreased to 18%. The so-called "trump trade" seems to be gaining even more momentum.

"Trump Trade" arrives faster and in a less volatile form than expectedIt seems. Based on the trends of this presidential election,The scenario where donald trump wins the presidency and the Republicans control both chambers is the most likely. Trumpimplementation of tariff increases + income tax cuts + reinforcement of strict immigration policies" is expected to bring good revenue to the United States, but it may trigger inflation again, leading to the possibility of high yields on U.S. bonds and the dollar remaining high. According to BloomUS dollar、Bitcoin、gold、US stocks (especially defensive shares, traditional energy shares), attention should be paid to these four major assets.

Among them, Tesla may benefit from a Trump election. According to market analysts, if Mr. Trump becomes president, there is a possibility of imposing high tariffs on Chinese electric auto manufacturers, which could be good for Tesla. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, stated that while Trump's reelection may have an overall negative impact on the electric automobile industry, it could still be a "potential positive catalyst" for Tesla.There is a possibility of imposing high tariffs on Chinese electric auto manufacturers, which could be beneficial for Tesla.for Tesla. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, stated that while Trump's reelection may have an overall negative impact on the electric automobile industry, it could still be a "potential positive catalyst" for Tesla.could be good forIt might be good for Tesla. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush, stated that while Trump's reelection may have an overall negative impact on the electric automobile industry, it could still be a "potential positive catalyst" for Tesla.potential positive catalystcould become a "potential positive catalyst" for Tesla.

Furthermore, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, expressed his support for Donald Trump. On the 14th, Musk declared on X (formerly Twitter), "I fully support President Trump and pray for a speedy recovery."

Trump's victory in 2016 exceeded market expectations, causing significant fluctuations in asset prices. In the 1-2 months after the victory, the market speculated on 'Trump trades,' digested the estimates, and then the trades weakened, with a slight reversal.

At that time, the essence of 'Trump trades' wasExpansionary fiscal policy.andStrict trade policiesdue to the expected rise in inflation rates in the United States, as well as the widening economic gap between the USA and other countries, from November to December 2016,high US bond yields、a strong US dollar、strong US stockswere indicated, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the rise of the 'Trump trade'. After the expectations were digested in the first quarter of 2017,Market sentiment is cooling down.、In March, US stocks fell.US bond yields remained high and fluctuated, US Dollar Index dropped.

After the first presidential candidate debate, market expectations for Mr. Trump's victory have significantly increased, leading to the start of 'Trump Trading' in the market. At present, due to the high leverage and high interest rates of the US government, there may be limited room for fiscal expansion, potentially weakening the domestic demand in the US and even the positive impact on the US stock market.There is a possibility that it may weaken compared to the previous time.。

The current US fiscal deficit has already reached a high level, and Mr. Trump has stated that he wants to expand government investment in the future. Therefore, under the basis of income tax reduction, a high tariff may be imposed as a means to secure revenue.rose by more than 7%.due to which Mr. Trump emphasizes the 'Tariff Increase + Income Tax Reduction' combination.Tariff Increases + Income Tax Reduction.There is a high possibility of continuing the distinctive policy. The education policy will restrain fiscal expenditure through decentralization, while the healthcare policy will reduce costs through competition.

(1) Decision of presidential and vice-presidential candidates: Republican National Convention (July 15-18), Democratic National Convention (August 19-22).
(2) Second candidates' debate: September 10.
(3) Presidential election: November 5.