Has the Bank of Japan's thinking changed? What is the future outlook?
Technical analysis (rating: 1.35/5)
- Will the rapid downward trend resume from after Labor Day? (Due to the -3.33% decline in the Nikkei futures on September 6th, the downward momentum is expected to increase significantly).
There were statements from BOJ Governor Ueda on 8/23 and Deputy BOJ Governor Himino on 8/28, mentioning that adjustments to monetary easing would be made if the outlook for economic and price realizations is determined.BOJ hinted at raising interest rates and early additional rate hikes on 7/31.Unable to slightly update the closing price of the "".Clear uptrend reversal.+It may convert to a downtrend. There is a high possibility of the downtrend continuing and setting new lows unless a strong fundamental like 'additional rate hike hints cancellations' reappears.
- The rapid acceleration of the downward trend has led to a highly unstable situation. It is unlikely to have any room for upward movement.
・米半導体大手エヌビディア(NVDA.O), opens new tabは２８日、第３・四半期（８─１０月）の売上高が３２５億ドル（プラスマイナス２％）になると予想した。市場予想（３１７億７０００万ドル）とほぼ一致する水準にとどまり、株価は引け後の時間外取引で６％下落した。
Candlestick chart (Rating: 0.5/5)
- Opening with a large bearish candlestick (9/4) -> Continuation of the downward trend (9/5,6)
-> Rapid resumption of the downward trend since after Labor Day? (Because of the Nikkei futures falling by about -3.33% on 9/6, the downward momentum is expected to greatly increase)
Chart pattern (Rating: 2/5)
- Breaking the resistance line of the downward trend since mid-July on 8/26, becoming stagnant. Due to the drop from 9/3, it is re-entering the resistance line of the downward trend.
-> It is expected to become more difficult to break the resistance line again.
Dow Theory x Granville's Law (Rating: 0.75/5)
- Dow Theory: After the major crash caused by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and early indication of additional rate hikes (7/31), there was a significant rebound (can't consider it a trend reversal?). After that,The Bank of Japan canceled the early additional rate hike.This will lead to a rebound and a change to an upward trend. However,There were statements from Ueda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, on August 23, and Hime, the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, on August 28, stating that if the outlook for the economy and prices is realized, adjustments to monetary easing will be made. The closing price of "Bank of Japan rate hikes and early additional rate hikes suggested (7/31)" could not be updated slightly.Following the rapid decline in US stocks after Labor Day, the upward trend quickly turned into a downward trend.(0.5/5)
- Granville's Law: On 8/19, the candlestick chart crossed above the 200-day moving average. However, on 9/3, the candlestick chart once again crossed below the 200-day moving average.(1/5)
According to the fundamental analysis, the financial adjustment (hint of interest rate hike) will depend on the outlook, and the rapid collapse of the US stocks after Labor Day.Clear upward trend reversal + downward trend reversalIs accelerating once again.As long as good fundamentals indicating no additional rate hikes are not provided, the downtrend will continue and new lows will be set.There is a high possibility. Based on the Granville's Law, it may be a good selling point as it broke above the 200-day moving average line and then immediately broke below.
☆Moving Average x Volume Moving Average (Rating: 1.4/5)
- Moving Average: Just before the death cross with the 5/21/200-day moving average. Also, the candlestick chart is below the 5/21/50/75/200-day moving averages.(1/5)
- Volume Moving Average: Since the death cross as of 8/15, there is no sense of direction.(2.5/5)
→ Short and medium-term momentum is lost, and the downward momentum is expected to increase. There is a potential for increased selling volume in the future.
☆ Ichimoku balance table × DMI (Rating: 1.5/5)
・ Ichimoku balance table: undergoing a three-role reversal. However, there is a slight twist in the positive cloud that occurs a little further ahead.(2/5)
・ DMI: cross occurs in PDI/MDI. Also, the downward momentum increases for ADX from 9/3 onwards.(1/5)
→ Does this suggest an acceleration in the downward trend?
- BOLL × RSI × MACD (Rating: 2/5)
・ BOLL: The candlestick chart rapidly declines from +1σ to -1σ. It becomes slightly biased towards bearish and becomes very unstable state.(1/5)
- RSI: It declined from 55 (9/2) to around 40 (9/3-6), showing a slightly oversold condition.(3/5)
- MACD: A dead cross has occurred. However, it may be a fake signal as it has occurred in the negative territory close to 0.(2/5)
It is transitioning rapidly into an unstable state. At least, it is believed that there is no room for further ascent.
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