Here are the key probabilities/changes to consider: [Tremble...

Here are the key probabilities/changes to consider:

Rate hike probability (i.e., to 4.60%): from 4% chance by September to 48% chance by November
First cut probability (i.e., to 4.10%): from 100% chance by June 2025 to 100% chance by November 2025
Second cut probability (i.e., to 3.85%): from 80% chance by November 2025 to no longer in look-forward period

It is clear from the above probabilities the market continues to view the next move in the RBA’s official cash rate is more likely to be down – not up. The probability of a rate hike has clearly risen as a result of yesterday’s CPI data, though, by some 44% with November showing peak probability for a hike. The timing of the first cut has shifted 5 months into the future, and a second cut now isn’t likely within the look-forward period.