Here's What the Harris-Trump Debate Means for US Stocks
As the U.S. presidential election approaches in just two months, focus intensifies on the crucial debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, scheduled for 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 10. For investors strategizing around the "Trump trade" or the "Harris trade," the market's forward-looking reaction to their governing policies is critical. The election outcome will shape expectations of their administration, leading to early capital allocation in sectors poised to benefit.
For Wall Street, the faceoff could heighten volatility amid existing uncertainties around the labor market, interest rates, and geopolitics. Here's what investors will be following in the debate — and beyond.
What Are the Odds Looking Like?
In the lead-up to the presidential election, several polls suggest a tight race. A new USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll gives Harris a 48%-43% advantage, within the poll's margin of error. Another poll by 538/ABC News shows Harris leading Trump 47%-44% this week.
There's also a new betting favorite in the race. As of Monday, former President Donald Trump retook a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time since mid-August, according to Bet365. Trump maintains a slight edge in other betting markets as well, including Betfair Exchange and Polymarket, where his odds stood at 51% as of 3 p.m. ET Sunday.
Renowned historian Allan Lichtman has confidently predicted Kamala Harris as the winner of the upcoming US presidential election, bypassing traditional polling methods and media tactics. Speaking from his Bethesda home, Lichtman shared his forecast based on his unique "13 keys" method, which has accurately predicted all but one election since 1984, with the one exception of 2000 victory of George W. Bush.
Equities to Watch if Harris Wins
A Harris victory is expected to boost several industries, particularly renewable energy, electric vehicles, and utilities. Avoiding a trade war with China, in contrast to Trump's aggressive rhetoric, is a significant aspect of the Harris trade.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a "very slight boost" to GDP between 2025 and 2026 if Harris wins and Democrats control both the House and Senate. The expanded middle-income tax credit is expected to counterbalance the impact of higher corporate tax rates on investment.
Clean Energy: Companies like $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ , $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$, and $Lucid Group (LCID.US)$ stand to gain from Democratic policies favoring renewable energy. EV charging network operators such as $ChargePoint (CHPT.US)$, $Beam Therapeutics (BEAM.US)$, and $Blink Charging (BLNK.US)$ as well as battery suppliers, could also see an uptick.
Solar Stocks: $First Solar (FSLR.US)$, $Sunrun (RUN.US)$, and $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$ are likely to benefit from Harris’s support for renewable energy.
Homebuilders: Stocks like $D.R. Horton (DHI.US)$, $Lennar Corp (LEN.US)$, and $KB Home (KBH.US)$ could rise due to Harris's proposed down-payment support for first-time homebuyers and tax incentives for starter homes.
Cannabis Stocks: Companies like $Tilray Brands (TLRY.US)$, $Canopy Growth (CGC.US)$, and $Curaleaf Holdings Inc (CURA.CA)$ typically perform well under Democratic administrations.
Financial Sector: Banks such as $Bank of America (BAC.US)$, $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$, and $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ may face tighter regulations and higher capital requirements. Drugmakers could also be pressured by Harris's proposal to cap out-of-pocket prescription drug costs at $2,000 annually.
Harris's entry into the presidential race to replace current President Joe Biden boosted the odds for a Democratic victory in the race. Jefferies strategists say that if she wins the presidential election, the focus will be on taxes, regulations, industry policy, trade, and energy transition.
Equities to Watch if Trump Wins
The immediate market reaction to the presidential debate can be gauged by watching shares of $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ and $Rumble (RUM.US)$, which could fluctuate due to meme-like market reactions and investor sentiment.
Tariff-Exposed Sectors:
$Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ economists suggest that if Trump wins, tariffs on imports from China and autos could quickly raise the effective tariff rate by 3 to 4 percentage points, potentially increasing core PCE inflation by 30 to 40 basis points at its peak.
The potential for increased tariffs on Chinese imports could impact a wide range of industries. Semiconductor companies, battery manufacturers, solar cell producers, critical mineral suppliers, and electric vehicle makers are particularly vulnerable. Companies like $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$, $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$, and $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ could face headwinds if trade tensions rise.
Companies like $Walmart (WMT.US)$, $Target (TGT.US)$ and $Nike (NKE.US)$ that import goods from China may also be affected by increased tariffs, impacting their profitability and stock performance.
Companies in the industrial sector that rely on raw materials from China may also be affected. Watch stocks like $Caterpillar (CAT.US)$, $Deere (DE.US)$, and $3M (MMM.US)$ for potential volatility stemming from trade policy shifts.
Goldman Sachs also projects that a victory for former President Donald Trump, coupled with either a divided government or Republican control of both houses of Congress, could lead to a 0.5 percentage point drag on GDP in the latter half of 2025. This forecast hinges on the assumption that Trump's proposed higher tariffs and stricter immigration policies would counterbalance any positive effects from government stimulus measures, such as reduced corporate taxes.
Interestingly, similar predictions during Trump’s first term did not materialize as expected. Despite trade wars, the economy saw steady growth, historically low unemployment, and stable inflation rates.
Traditional Energy: Crude stocks like $Baker Hughes (BKR.US)$, $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$, $ConocoPhillips (COP.US)$, and $Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$ are likely to benefit from Trump’s promise to roll back domestic oil production restrictions.
Defense Stocks: Companies like $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$, $Northrop Grumman (NOC.US)$, and $RTX Corp (RTX.US)$ could see gains due to anticipated increases in defense spending that was typical under Republican administrations.
Prison and Gun Stocks: $The GEO Group Inc (GEO.US)$, $CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW.US)$, $Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI.US)$, and $Sturm Ruger (RGR.US)$ could benefit from Trump’s tough stance on immigration and gun rights.
Healthcare: The healthcare sector could experience mixed impacts. While drugmakers may benefit from reduced regulatory pressure, companies dependent on global supply chains could face challenges. Keep an eye on $Pfizer (PFE.US)$, $Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$, and $Merck & Co (MRK.US)$.
Jefferies analysts also cited 10 possible policies that Trump might implement if he wins the next election and how these could affect stocks. Their analysis was based on Trump's Agenda 47 proposals, and the 220 executive orders from his first term, along with insights from Jefferies' policy experts. The analysts also reviewed Harris's recent statements and the 2024 Democratic Platform as they examined the impact on stocks.
As the presidential debate approaches, investors will be closely monitoring the candidates' positions on key economic issues. The market's reaction to the debate and subsequent polling data will provide further insights into which sectors may benefit or face challenges based on the election outcome. Regardless of the winner, the election is set to be a significant market-moving event, shaping investment strategies and capital flows in the months ahead.
Source: Bloomberg, USA Today, Axios
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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TheOracleOfBroMaha : If Harris wins im selling everything & investing in Gold
Tonyco :
Joe P :
tough Platypus_9271 : Harris will say anything to get elected . She has no experience in anything but a prosecutor for California and you see how that went. The emergent.czar , you see how that went too. If she is president, she will not be in charge, she knows nothing about the job, and you really want her to sit down with Putin? This is the worst time to even consider her. Watch the debate tonight at 9 eastern time.
73372627 : So according by this really bios article no M7 will benefit????? LOL. , but nice cannabis will benefit and replace the millions of jobs lost in energy, auto and their 's collateral.
Yee, we will grow pot with solar panels.
judah in Singapore : When the rampant use of marijuana in the usa comes, let russia and china be great again! Let the new generation of americans indulge themselves. A president who supports marijuana is the punishment that the leftists should win.
103721817 : good
muhamad Hazairudin s : Muhammad hazairudin shadan
Steve Kovacek TheOracleOfBroMaha :
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