Account Info
Log Out
English
Back
Log in to access Online Inquiry
Back to the Top

Does history repeat itself?! The Trump administration '1.0' saw a 1.7 times increase in stock market indices!

avatar
moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · 8 hours ago
Mr. Trump, who won the American presidential election, is scheduled to take office as the 47th President on the 20th of next month. Looking back at history, after winning the 2016 US presidential election as the 45th President of the United States, Trump's economic policies had a deep impact on the financial markets. In particular, it led to a significant increase of about 70% during his four-year term in a set of around 500 representative US stocks. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ However, that recorded a significant increase of about 70% during the four-year term
Does history repeat itself?! The Trump administration '1.0' saw a 1.7 times increase in stock market indices!
Pre-Trump presidency stock market, rise to meet expectations(November 8, 2016 - January 20, 2017)
Following Mr. Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 election, the market showed a positive response to his economic policies within a few hours. In particular, reflecting his promises of corporate tax cuts and deregulation, both the US stocks and US bond yields, along with the dollar, surged simultaneously. During the period from the election day to the inauguration day, the S&P 500 index rose by 6.56%.
During the election period,Mr. Trump promised to promote a significant tax reform. aiming to stimulate economic growth and investment by lowering corporate and individual tax rates, contributing to the improvement of market credibility. Moreover, Mr. Trump proposed a large-scale infrastructure project.Aiming to strengthen the infrastructure of American transportation, energy, communications, and other sectors, it is expected to promote economic growth and create new job opportunities. In other words, optimistic expectations in the market have contributed to pushing up the S&P 500 index.
Stock market trends after Trump's inauguration, changes in policies. (January 20, 2017 - January 20, 2021)
Since the beginning of the Trump administration in early 2017,Regulatory easing began focusing on the financial services and energy sectors.。政策は、企業のコスト削減と経済成長の促進を目指していた。2017年にトランプ政権は1 trillionドル規模のインフラ投資計画を提案したが、この計画は完全には実施されませんでした。提案が公表された際には、関連産業の株価が一時的に上昇する効果が見られた。
トランプ大統領は就任直後に「アメリカ・ファースト(米国第一主義)」貿易政策を推進し、国内製造業の保護と活性化を図るために貿易協定の再交渉に着手した。特に注目されたのは、カナダ、メキシコとの北米自由貿易協定(NAFTA)の再交渉した結果であり、2018年10月1日にアメリカ・メキシコ・カナダ協定(USMCA)が正式に合意された。USMCAにより、製造業や自動車産業など、直接的に影響を受けるセクターが安定し、それが広範な経済活動に好影響を与えることが期待された。また、新協定が技術移転や知的財産の保護の強化は、技術株や製薬株など、知的財産が重要な役割を果たす産業にとってもプラスとなっている。
On December 22, 2017,The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was signed into law, lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. This tax reform was expected to stimulate corporate investment, increase job opportunities, and promote economic growth. It notably lifted stock prices, including the S&P 500 Index. Additionally, revisions to individual income taxes led to increased take-home pay, contributing to economic growth and revitalization of the stock market.In 2018,
As a result of the tax reform, many companies expanded their cash reserves and used the funds to buy back their own shares.With the reduced tax burden on companies due to the tax reform, there was observed an increase in stock prices and earnings per share. Consequently, in 2018, the amount of corporate stock buybacks reached historically high levels.With the reduction in corporate tax burdens following the tax reform, there was observed an increase in stock prices and per-share profit. Consequently, in 2018, the amount of stock buybacks by companies reached historically high levels.
In March 2020, the S&P 500 index plummeted by over 30% from its early year high, but then recovered over the following months, ending the year with an approximately 16.26% increase, setting new highs. The same year, the new coronavirus severely impacted the global economy and financial markets. In response to the pandemic, the Trump administration and Congress implemented large-scale financial and fiscal stimulus measures, signing the 'Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act'. This measure, totaling $2.2 trillion, was the largest relief package in U.S. history, incorporating cash payments to households, expanded unemployment benefits, assistance for private enterprises, and played a vital role in maintaining financial market stability and promoting economic growth.The Trump administration signed the 'Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act', a $2.2 trillion relief package, including cash payments to households, expanded unemployment benefits, and support for private enterprises, in response to the coronavirus outbreak which significantly impacted the global economy and financial markets.The Trump administration's 'version 2.0' is here! Future Outlook (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029): During President Trump's first term, the S&P 500 index generally showed an upward trend. The bullish stock market largely benefited from Trump's policies. While the initial tax cuts and deregulations injected vitality into the market, uncertainty arose due to changes in trade policies. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic had short-term effects on the market, but swift government responses led to recovery.
On December 12th, President Trump rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), announcing a series of policy proposals related to tax cuts. He expressed his intention to reduce the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15% in front of gathered corporate executives.During President Trump's first term, the S&P 500 index generally showed an upward trend, benefiting significantly from Trump's policies. While the initial tax cuts and deregulation brought vitality to the market, changes in trade policies caused uncertain outcomes. The market experienced short-term impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, yet swift governmental responses facilitated a recovery.
Trump's administration is diving into 'version 2.0'! Future outlook (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029): Throughout President Trump's first term, the S&P 500 index exhibited an overall uptrend. The positive performance of the stock market was greatly influenced by Trump's policies. The initial tax cuts and deregulation measures invigorated the market, but shifts in trade policy introduced uncertainty. Although the COVID-19 outbreak had short-term effects on the market, rapid government actions led to its recovery.
Trump, on December 12th, signaled the start of trading at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) by ringing the opening bell. During this event, he reiterated a series of policy proposals related to tax cuts. He announced his intention to reduce the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15% to the gathered corporate executives.Trump rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 12th, announcing a series of policy proposals related to tax cuts. He expressed his intention to reduce the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15% to the assembled corporate executives."However, it is limited to products produced in the USA. Otherwise, it remains at 21%." Trump also mentioned."For me, the stock market is everything."declared.He emphasized bold actions towards AI and cryptocurrency, as well as tax cuts for economic measures.。(Related Articles:"Trump 2.0" Key sectors and stocks to watch for permanent tax cuts, tariff hikes.?
JPモルガンによると、トランプ氏の減税提案は主に国内企業を対象としているため、米国国内からの収益の割合は恩恵を受ける企業を決定する鍵だ。S&P500指数の構成銘柄のうち、実効税率が15%を超え、かつ米国内での収益が全収益の80%以上を占めるのは、減税による恩恵を受ける企業だ。これらの企業は主に金融、工業に集中し、次いで生活必需品、非生活必需品、ヘルスケアの各業界であると説明した。
また、2025年の展望において、ウォール街で、強気な意見が多く聞かれる。S&P 500の予想平均は約6500ポイントと見られている。多くのアナリストが、高い株価評価にもかかわらず、利益の見通しが良いと指摘している。利下げ継続とトランプ次期政権の規制緩和・減税路線の推進などを背景に、政策の面から米国株を押し上げる要因と考えられている。(Related Articles:【Outlook for 2025】Will the bullish market continue? Wall Street predicts that the S&P 500 will rise to 7100 by the end of the year.
However, next year, there is also a possibility that the Federal Reserve System (FRB) may have an uncertain impact on US stocks. According to Bloomberg economists, in 2025, as part of the annual rotation of regional Federal Reserve presidents, four new members will join the FOMC voting committee.Based on the 'hawkish' and 'dovish' scores for the 2025 members, the opinion distribution of the voting committee is expected to shift slightly towards the 'hawkish' side compared to 2024.Therefore, there may be an increased possibility of members voting against a rate cut decision this year.It suggests that they will move away from the 'centrist' position and shift slightly towards the 'hawkish' side.As a result, there may be more members voting against the rate cut decision this year.Related Articles:【Outlook for 2025】Slowdown in rate cuts but easing continues! Depending on Trump, will the Fed's hawkishness? What impact will it have on the stock market?
- MOOMOO News: Alicia
Source: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, MOOMOO
This article utilizes auto-translation in some parts.
Does history repeat itself?! The Trump administration '1.0' saw a 1.7 times increase in stock market indices!
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
12
1
+0
See Original
Report
11K Views
Comment
Sign in to post a comment