How far do you think the AI stock market Hype Cycle has progressed?
early stages? Mid-term? late stage?
Even in the current bull market for 15 years or more (2009/3 to present), high-tech stocks have come to be evaluated at the second highest level in the past.
Apple: 3.6 trillion dollars, 36 times profit
Microsoft: 3.5 trillion dollars, 41 times profit
NVIDIA: 3.3 trillion dollars, 79 times profit
Right now, I'm still in the enthusiast stage where stock prices rise rapidly just by saying “AI.”
Since Apple Intelligence was announced on 6/10, Apple's stock price has risen 21% (700 billion yen) due to analysts' predictions of the “upgrade super cycle.” The stock price of Moderna, which announced a partnership with OpenAI, rose 60% in May.
Eventually, it will move to the “show me the money” stage where investors need to confirm actual profits in order to maintain this valuation. But it's clear that we're not at that stage yet. Companies selling shovels during the current gold rush ( $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 、 $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ For (etc.), they are now making impressive profits, but the question is how sustainable it is over the long term. Wall Street has factored in their earnings growth as permanent.
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