How fast is Waymo rolling and what's the impact on Uber, Lyft and Google

According to Morgan Stanley analysts in a research note this week, Waymo's latest cumulative miles driven data has provided fresh insight into the pace of its Level 4 (L4) autonomous vehicle rollout, a development with potential implications for companies like Uber, Lyft, and Google.

In Jul, Waymo reported 25.3 million cumulative miles driven, representing a 3 million mile increase from Jun, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 300% and a month-over-month increase of 9%, which Morgan Stanley noted is in line with their estimates.

The data also highlights city-specific trends, with San Francisco and Austin exceeding expectations while Phoenix and Los Angeles grew slower than anticipated.

The move to monthly reporting is said to be significant, as it gives analysts better visibility into the scaling and adoption of autonomous vehicles.

"Waymo's disclosure of Jul numbers following its initial disclosure in Jun also establishes a monthly reporting cadence which provides unique insight into the pace of L4 autonomous adoption," Morgan Stanley wrote.

As Waymo expands operations in existing cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin, and eyes new markets such as Atlanta, tracking its growth is considered crucial.

Morgan Stanley suggests Waymo's scaling could eventually lead investors to reconsider Google's valuation, noting that the current market appears to assign an implied -$50 to -$60 billion value to Waymo within Google's stock price.

The growing deployment of Waymo's robotaxis may also have strategic implications for Uber and Lyft, said the bank.

With autonomous vehicle adoption accelerating, they believe competition could shift within the ride-hailing industry, creating new challenges for the ride-hailing companies.

Morgan Stanley will continue to monitor Waymo's progress, particularly in its efforts to demonstrate sustainable unit economics.

Ultimately, Morgan Stanley believes the steady rollout of Waymo's autonomous offerings presents both opportunities and risks for Google and the broader transportation industry as robotaxis gain traction.