How has the movement of the dollar been since the birth of the Trump administration in 2016?

President Biden, in the debate, staged a blunder, and with the market almost conscious of a tiger, it transitioned to Trump trade.
However, as Biden withdraws from the presidential election and Vice President Kamala Harris emerges, the situation changes again, and investors are already being pressed to reassess the Trump trade.

That being said,Undoubtedly, as the political situation becomes more uncertain, volatility in interest rates and exchange rates will increase.I will explain.
In the short term, taking positions based on premature financial estimates is unlikely to be successful. This is evident even when looking at the summer market before past presidential elections.

SuchDo not be swayed by noise.I want to do that.

So, I would like to review the movement of the dollar after President Trump was born in 2016.
Since the market has already experienced the first term of the Trump administration, there is a high possibility of moving in line with it to some extent.

In November 2016, Trump won the US presidential election. This result was unexpected for many people, and the market was temporarily thrown into chaos. Immediately after the election, the dollar temporarily declined.

The market became unstable due to concerns about Trump's protectionist policies.

However, afterwards, when Trump advocated for tax cuts, deregulation, and expanding infrastructure investment, expectations for economic growth increased, leading to a rapid recovery of the dollar. In particular, due to the increase in profits of American companies from corporate tax cuts, the demand for the dollar increased, causing it to rise.

The market is likely expecting the same in the second term.

One of the significant policies of the Trump administration was the increase in tariffs.

In particular, the trade war with China is still vividly remembered. How many times have we angrily said, "Enough already!" (laughs).
From 2018 to 2019, by imposing high tariffs on imports from China, the aim was to protect domestic industries in the United States.

This policy initially strengthened the dollar in the short term, but in the long run, it increased market instability and led to higher volatility of the dollar.

Currently, semiconductor regulations under the Democratic administration are one of the causes of the current sharp decline, but under the Trump administration, the confrontation with China will become clearer once again. It is expected that not only the dollar but also the volatility of the stock market will increase.

Tariff costs have mainly been passed on to American companies and consumers.

The prices of imported goods have increased, affecting consumer prices as well. For example, tariffs on steel and aluminum products have increased costs for companies using these products, resulting in price hikes and impacts on employment in some industries.

This signifies an increase in long-term interest rates and a strong dollar.

On the other hand, there are pressures to lower short-term interest rates due to comments attacking Powell and demands for rate cuts.
Furthermore, the suppression of immigration is increasing, leading to a decrease in the workforce, which may also result in wage increases.

Short-term interest rates face downward pressure, while long-term interest rates tend to rise, steepening the yield curve.

This is the world that is expected. I believe this is the consensus of many analysts and economists.

Aiming for a strong America, it is America First, but they also want to guide the dollar lower.
In terms of trade, it is expected that the second term will put pressure on various countries, and will be shaken daily by various regulations.

The market that knows the movement of the dollar in the first term...Initially, there is a short-term welcoming mood with a strong dollar and high stocks.However, with the policy of high interest rates and a strong dollar that follows, there is a contradiction towards guiding the dollar lower with short-term interest rates, leading to increased volatility of the dollar.It seems like a volatile world.It is likely to become a world of fluctuations.

However,If the usa continues to grow, the dollar is likely to appreciate in the long term.I have a feeling that is the case.

And since Trump is in his second term, he will definitely step down after 4 years. There won't be another one. Well, it's probably impossible age-wise too (laughs).

If the Republican administration continues, Vice President candidate Pence will be the next President.
Given Trump's preferences, being very pro-american and strongly disliking china haha, if similar policies continue for another 4 years, the trend of a strong dollar will likely continue for 8 years.

Even if the yen appreciates temporarily, I don't think it will last long.
Over the next 4 years, 8 years, the volatility of the USD/JPY will increase with significant ups and downs, but ultimately I think the direction will be towards a weaker yen.

If that happens, the difficulty of FX trading seems to increase, and it does not seem wise to continue shorting USD/JPY excessively, expecting excessive yen strengthening due to the narrowing of the interest rate spread between Japan and the USA and the unwinding of carry trades.