How long can the election bonus last? Can Trump's media group (DJT) still be invested?

- Will the election truly drive the stock price to soar?

- How will the current market’s bullish and bearish positions affect the stock price?

- From a technical analysis perspective, what is DJT’s future trajectory?

If you are a "value investor," I suggest you completely avoid this stock. Relative to its current overvaluation, this stock is as worthless as a bag of trash! That’s why shorting it is so costly, as Wall Street believes a 90% drop at any time is within reason.

The stock’s entire value is tied to its ticker DJT and the person with the same initials—Donald John Trump!

This article will analyze DJT’s opportunities and risks from multiple dimensions, including election impact, options positioning, market forces, and technical analysis (such as candlestick patterns and chip distribution), providing comprehensive references for short-term speculators.

Election Market: How Will the Election Impact DJT's Performance?
As a key candidate in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Trump’s political dynamics will directly affect DJT’s stock performance.

According to official data from ABC News, Trump currently holds 49% support nationwide, closely followed by Harris at 48%. However, data from the Polymarket website, the largest prediction market, shows Trump significantly leading Harris in state support. As of October 29, 2024, 66.3% of Americans support Trump, while 33.8% support Harris. At present, Trump’s chances of winning appear much higher than Harris's.

Will Trump or Harris win the election? This is essentially a mathematical problem. Using a mathematical model (big data experience), I estimate Trump’s winning probability at about 54%, an increase of 6 percentage points over the past week.

The prediction model indicates that in seven swing states, Trump is likely to win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Harris may take Michigan and Nevada. The key lies in Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes. Historically, winning Pennsylvania has been crucial to securing the presidency.

After Trump’s assassination attempt, the Democrats' odds diminished significantly. Harris is seen as a lackluster Washington politician, unable to effectively lead her party. Although Trump’s recent performance has been steady rather than spectacular, his opponent’s missteps have repeatedly shifted the odds in his favor. This shift is evident not only in overall polls and swing state dynamics but also in the discontent and disappointment reported by pro-Democrat media.

With only days left until the election, we are in the most intense final stretch. Current polling suggests a high probability of Trump winning, likely boosting DJT’s stock price.

Options Market Overview:

DJT’s options market has shown heightened activity as the election nears, with a surge in call options reflecting market optimism about a Trump victory.

Options Positioning Data:

The charts for November 1 and November 8 show most call options concentrated around the election, indicating expectations of a significant price increase before the election. After November 8, there’s a decrease due to two main reasons: 1) heavy selling pressure from pre-election profit-taking; 2) high time costs, with risks outweighing returns.

Interestingly, both charts show a substantial number of put options at lower price ranges, indicating some are betting against the election result. If Trump loses, a likely sharp drop in stock price could yield significant profits.

Market data shows DJT has strong bullish sentiment, especially among retail investors optimistic about pre-election price increases. However, the rise in bearish positions suggests some see DJT as overvalued, especially with election results uncertain.

Technically, DJT’s stock price has stabilized and rebounded from lows. The previous downward wedge has been broken, indicating bullish sentiment and upward momentum leading up to the election. According to Fibonacci retracement levels, the rebound is likely to continue. If it breaks the 0.50 ($45.5) resistance, it may further test the 0.618 ($53.5) resistance level, suggesting potential for continued gains before the election.

- Support Level: The current price is stabilizing at a key support, with investors watching the 0.236 ($27.78) support level. If this holds, short-term bulls will likely remain dominant.

- Resistance Level: The current price has reached the 0.50 ($45.5) resistance level. Breaking this could open further upside, with continued focus on the 0.618 ($53.5) resistance.

The chip distribution chart shows that the area with a dense distribution of chips is near the price of 29.77, which will be an important support/resistance level in the near term. The top of the POC + value areas nearly overlaps with the Fibonacci level of 0.382 ($37.6), making this resistance level a strong one in the short term. As the stock price has rebounded from a low and has broken through this resistance level, the bulls have gained the upper hand in the short term. This resistance level will now convert into a support level, continuing the ascent toward the 0.5 ($45.5) and 0.618 ($53.5) areas.

With the current price nearing the Fibonacci 0.50 ($45.5) resistance, a pre-election breakout could see prices rise to 0.618 ($53.5) levels. Maintain a bullish stance before the election. However, on election day, regardless of the outcome, exercise caution and be aware of potential price declines.