How to determine signals of the market peaking?

Recently, I noticed some important signals when analyzing market trends.

The current policy environment seems to be undergoing significant tightening, which reminds me of the A-share market's frequent short-term rapid uptrends in history, often accompanied by a substantial increase in turnover ratio. From what I understand, the A-share market has experienced 12 such short-term uptrends in the past, each lasting from 10 days to 4 months. The driving force behind these uptrends is always driven by significant bullish policies and continuous inflow of funds. At the same time, the turnover ratio often soars from low levels to 2-10 times.

Policy tightening and peak turnover ratio are often signs of these short-term uptrends peaking. Looking back at history, we can see that whether it's the accelerated stock issuance in 1995, the 'Twelve Gold Medal' in 1996, or later policy adjustments such as the increase in stamp duty and reduction of state-owned shareholdings, they have all been followed by market peaks and declines. Meanwhile, turnover ratio often reaches extremely high levels of 5%-20% during peak periods.

However, as far as the current A-share market is concerned, although the short-term uptrend is obvious, there doesn't seem to be any sign of peaking yet. In terms of economic policies, it's difficult to see significant changes in the medium to short-term, and fiscal policies may even be further strengthened. In terms of capital market policies, the short term may still focus on boosting and being proactive. Especially the policies released on September 24th are likely to be implemented in the short term. In addition, despite the rapid rise in the market, the inflow of financing and retail investors is still at a relatively low level, and off-exchange finance and securities lending trading has not shown signs of recovery, the regulatory authorities may have difficulties in implementing restrictions and crackdowns on funds flowing into the stock market in the short term.

I believe that the current market's capital inflow has not yet reached its peak. On one hand, the scale of financing and foreign funds inflow is still relatively small; on the other hand, the turnover ratio or volume increase has not yet reached its peak. Based on historical experience, only when the turnover ratio reaches a peak, reaching a very high level of 5%-20%, while the volume increases 2-10 times, the market may face the risk of peaking. Looking at all A-shares currently, the turnover ratio is only around 4%, and the daily trading volume has not reached the 5-10 trillion or even higher levels that could trigger a peaking risk.

Based on the above analysis, I believe that the current market still has room for upside. My stocks in pdd holdings and alibaba are expected to continue to benefit!!