How will Tesla stock prices move depending on the number of cars delivered on 4/2 Q1?

$TSLA The number of Q1 car deliveries will finally be announced tomorrow.

I've summarized analyst predictions and results for the past 4 quarters, and stock price movements for the next day.

Despite the fact that the previous 2023-Q4 car deliveries slightly exceeded analysts' expectations, the stock price fell 4% the next day ⤵️

Q3 2013 fell short of about 20,000 units as predicted by analysts, but the next day the stock price rose by about 0.5%.

The prevailing view is that the number of cars delivered in Q1 of '24 will fall short of expectations this time, so even if the results fall below expectations, like last year's Q3, stock prices may not be affected that much.

However, I think the problem is how much of a gap there is between the expected number of units and the results. If the error is about 20,000 units, the stock price will not drop that far, and conversely, if 10,000 units or more are positive, there may be a surprise rise.

My prediction is that it is estimated to be around 405,000 to 420,000 units, but what will the results really be? Let's keep an eye out for tomorrow's Tesla announcement.