How will US stocks move during the presidential election year? The first half of the year was adjusted, and August and December are going great?

This year, entering the 4th year of the presidential election cycle, for the US stock marketA pivotal yearIt is. According to the latest US Investopedia survey, since the beginning of November last year, more than half (61%) of investors2024 US presidential electionI am concerned that it will affect my portfolio. Also, the election was the most feared among respondents, followed byMiddle East War、A potential recession、inflationaryoccupies the top position.

After 192824 timesOf the presidential elections,18 timesIt became a plus. The specific performance of the S&P 500 Index is as follows.

According to Bankame, from a historical perspective,Fourth year of the presidential election cycleWhat is the US stock market75% win rateA record was recorded, and steady returns have been raised, but such an increase is quite unstable,It's hard to rise until the second half of the year。

“If you look at the average monthly return of the S&P 500 in the 4th year of the presidential election cycle,January to May is dull、Summer rally from June to August、September-October was the slump before the election、Is November to December a backlash after the electionIt has become,” Bank of America technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier pointed out in the latest report.

The strongest month of the year is AugustSo, averageJust over 3%the rise of,71% win rateRecord it. Meanwhile, it dispelled the sense of uncertainty about the presidential electionDecember had the highest win rate, reaching 83%. andMayIsAn average decline of 1.1%So, it tends to be the weakest month of the year.