10xStockPicks wrote a post · Oct 24 07:55

Hugely Undervalued $2 Biotech With 21% Held Short $16 Price Target, Takeover Candidate, Soon Profitable

Esperion $Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR.US)$ We reiterate Strong Buy rating. Esperion has the only FDA approved statin alternative drugs NEXLIZET & NEXLETOL for Primary Prevention, an estimated 21 Million Americans are Statin intolerant and or maxed out on Statin drugs and need additional lowering. Over 71 million Americans take statin drugs, we see continued prescription growth & expect over 500,000 patients by 2026 which will generate over $2 billion in yearly revenues. Our 2025 year end earnings estimate is $0.29 to $0.36 per share. After discussing with Jefferies analyst Dennis Ding we think Esperion has a strong chance of being acquired in the near future, it is possible before 2024 is over, we think Esperion could easily fetch $2 billion, around $10 per share. If Esperion is not acquired we believe the upside is over 10 x within 24 months.

ESPR Average analyst earning expectations for 2025 is $0.18 per share shown below:

Hugely Undervalued $2 Biotech With 21% Held Short $16 Price Target, Takeover Candidate, Soon Profitable

The average price target is about $8 with a high of $16 which we think will be reached within 18 months. Esperion prescriptions will keep growing and growing, while milestones and royalties will be paid in, the analysts have not forecasted possible revenues in milestones/royalties in new countries.

Blackrock adds 7.3% additional stake in ESPR reported on 10/22/2024 in new fund.

Below latest internal note from Jefferies analyst:

BELOW are a lots of collected research facts from some previous articles on ESPR, this is NOT a pump stock, this is real research for serious investors that are looking for an investment of a lifetime. Please review it and do your own research.

Exciting NEWS Oct 11th, MILOS study highlights potential of Bempedoic acid to advance dyslipidemia treatment: GlobalData

Daiichi Sankyo has recently announced the final two-year follow-up data from the German cohort of the MILOS study. The MILOS study is a real-world investigation into the use of bempeodoic acid for managing high cholesterol levels. Bempedoic acid and its fixed dose combination with ezetimibe, with or without other lipid therapies, have been shown to significantly reduce low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) levels in patients with hypercholesterolemia or mixed dyslipidaemia. Hence, bempedoic acid in combination can advance dyslipidemia treatment, says GlobalData.

Conducted across Germany, patients LDL-C levels were measured at pre-treatment, year one, and year two. Over the two-year period, LDL-C levels showed a mean reduction from 3.1 mmol/L at pre-treatment to 2.0 mmol/L at year two, representing an average decrease of 30.3 per cent. The safety profile of bempedoic acid observed in this real-world population was consistent with that seen in the CLEAR clinical trials.

Dr Shireen Mohammad, Senior Cardiovascular & Metabolic Disorders Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “The market for bempedoic acid in the dyslipidemia space is highly competitive, with several established players such as statins and PCSK9 inhibitors. However, bempedoic acid offers several advantages over these therapies, including a different mechanism of action and a lower risk of adverse effects such as muscle pain and liver toxicity. As such, bempedoic acid is expected to see significant growth in the dyslipidemia market, particularly in patients who are unable to tolerate or do not respond to other lipid-lowering therapies.”

Several Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) from GlobalData have expressed that the combination of bempedoic acid and ezetimibe has the potential to become a widely used treatment option. Particularly in patients with statin intolerance, this may lead to the consideration of combining bempedoic acid with ezetimibe as an alternative treatment option.

KOLs from GlobalData have also highlighted the unmet need for effective triglyceride-lowering therapies in the field of dyslipidemia. High triglyceride levels are a common lipid abnormality that is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. While current standard-of-care therapies for dyslipidemia, such as statins, are effective at lowering LDL cholesterol levels, they have limited efficacy in lowering triglyceride levels.

Dr Mohammad concludes, “There is an unmet need for better therapies to specially target high triglyceride levels, and this study offers promising prospects for effective dyslipidemia treatments.” MILOS study highlights potential of bempedoic acid to advance dyslipidemia treatment: GlobalData - Express Pharma

MILOS study underscores the potential of bempedoic acid to enhance dyslipidemia treatment, particularly for patients with statin intolerance.

$Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR.US)$ Is going to be one of those stocks people wish they loaded up on, but I highly Suggest you buy some now. This isn't a Pump article. Read the facts & decide for yourself. People mostly miss out the the explosive growth curve and Esperion is just getting started. Read the facts shown below why Esperion is HUGELY Undervalued with it's unique drugs now available in the most prescribed drugs in the entire world. The company sells the ONLY statin alternative drugs with Primary Prevention Labels & Insurance companies are jumping onboard, hedge funds & Institutions are loading up. SHOWN Below.

The current market-cap for Esperion is just $400 million range, with $200 million cash on hand, and $900 million in future milestones, and a $140m coming next year. ESPR is expected to launch drug sales in multiple new countries in 2025. In Canada, Australia & Israel. A buyout or tender offer could come any day because of the new label change and Insurance companies are now marketing the drugs & requiring Doctors now prescribe before the multi billion PCSK9 injections market, which generate is expected to generate $2.4 to $2.8 billion in U.S sales in 2024 for Amgen, Novartis & Regeneron. 22% held short could lead to a Huge short squeeze.

Esperion CFO said a few weeks ago when asked by Canto analyst J kim "What does the company expect in sales?" Ben Halladay replied "will definitely be billion dollar drugs" (watch playback on Esperion website under events). 21 Million Americans need Statin alternative drugs, 2 Million patients would generate $9 BILLION in yearly sales by 2028 for Esperion, however I believe Esperion will soon be sold, the company has set it self up to be acquired, In the last 3 months Esperion paid off $360 million debt & removed a $160m poison pill & has shown the door to several top officials including the chief medical officer JoAnne Foody, she was given 12 months pay, her last day was Sept 16, now she is with JNJ, If she was leaving on her own accord, Esperion would not have given her 12 months pay, it is clear Esperion has positioned itself for a SALE. It is rumored, Amgen is sitting on a large amount of cash & could be ready to acquire Esperion among other potential suitors. Esperion has $1.5 billion in tax losses on it's balance sheet that the buyer will be able to use.

Besides Esperions current FDA approved statin alternative drugs which is made up of Bempedoic Acid, WATCH Esperion CFO Talk about Next Gen ATP Citrate lyase Inhibitor which Esperion is getting the IP in place to discuss A Billion dollar Cancer Tumor destroying drug - YouTube

Statin drugs are the #1 most prescribed drugs in the world. Over 10% of people are statin intolerant and over 20% need alternative drugs to lower bad cholesterol, such as a PCSK9 injection or Ezetimibe which is in NEXLIZET as a combo drug with Esperions Bempedoic Acid. An estimated 20 % of the 71 Million Americans that take statin drugs need additional combination lowering to get to a safe LDLc level. Ezetimibe which is only 15% effective by itself had almost 9 million prescriptions in 2023, that number is drastically set to decline considering the new label for both NEXLIZET and NEXLETOL. NEXLIZET is as effective as a statin and works better than many statin drugs without serious side effects or raised blood sugar, it drops your levels by 40% & some patients over 50% , this drug should easily exceed 2 million scripts on yearly basis by 2028, which would generate a massive amount of sales, around $9 billion in yearly revenue for ESPR.

Esperion now has new insurance companies covering the cost of the drugs, 40 million lives covered started on June 1st 2024, and Sept 1st $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ United health got on board, total lives now covered are over 150 million, United Health has just changed NEXLIZET and NEXLETOL starting last week to preventive medicine coverage list, this is a very big win for Esperion, United Health will now push sales of the drugs & PCSK9 drugs are NOT covered on the list. PCSK9 drugs in 2024 are expected to have over $2.8 billion in U.S sales, NEXLIZET is going to rapidly take market share because insurance will push for patients to try NEXLIZET 1st. More insurance companies will follow United Health complete coverage. Esperion has partnered with ASPN pharmacies (1-888-673-1686) to cover any new prescriptions NOT covered by insurance, with just a $10 to $25 copay, patients can visit nexlizethcp com and get the drug if insurance doesn't cover it.

Kaiser Permanente is one of America's leading health care providers and nonprofit health plans, Kaiser has about 12.7 million members, including 9.5 million Californians. Kaiser prescribed an estimated 314,000 PCSK9 injections in 2023, Kaiser is now covering the cost after a patient has tried 2 statins, but Kaiser should soon add NEXLIZET & NEXLETOL on formulary, covering the cost without any restrictions. NEXLIZET as 1st choice over PCSK9's will generate a substantial cost saving of over $1 billion per year for Kaiser, patients will take a once a day pill instead of a injection every two weeks, and avoid two doctor visits every month. Esperion will see a very large increase in revenue, every 100,000 patients will generate nearly $500 million per year for Esperion.

Amgen $Amgen (AMGN.US)$ and other PCSK9 companies know they will lose market share, a once a day pill is by far the easier and safer option versus an injection, also PCSK9 drugs don't lower HSCRP levels, and that is a BIG concern. NEXLIZET and NEXLETOL significantly lower hscrp levels, they have an edge over statin drugs and pcsk9 injections because they basically have no side effects and do not cause A1C #'s to rise, which is a becoming a serious concern because more and more people are seeing their A1C levels rise while taking a statin drug and at the risk of type 2 diabetes.

Statin drugs have a lot side effects that are concerning, muscle pain & damage, liver & kidney damage, memory loss, dementia, vision problems, dizzy spells, weight gain, low testosterone, erectile dysfunction and much more. GET you Cholesterol levels checked, don't put it off, we had family friend die from heart attack while playing video games, he was in his late 20's.

WATCH

This new video on Youtube , Lady taking NEXLIZET for 11 months is now cured from Type2 Diabetes from switching from a statin. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMW-BtT7WWE

Esperions partner Daiichi Sankyo Europe (DSE) is way ahead on prescriptions, they currently have over 410,000 yearly scripts, on May 22nd 2024, DSE was granted the very same primary prevention label that the FDA granted Esperion in March months ago. In Germany NEXLIZET is 1st inline over PCSK9 injections, the U.K. will soon follow Germany requiring patients must try NEXLIZET 1st. DSE is starting prescription sales in 3 new countries. If Esperion had 410,000 patients that would be $2 billion a year in sales, x that by 3 x sales & you have a $30 stock price based on 200 M outstanding shares.

On May 20th 2024, Esperion's Japan partner Otsuka finished it's phase3 Bempedoic Acid trial with excellent results, Japan will soon launch the equivalent of NEXLIZET & NEXLETOL resulting in milestone payments and up to 30% royalties for Esperion. Otsuka owes $600 million in milestone payments shown under partner page on Esperion Therapeutics website. Esperion expects to be paid $140 million in 2025 from Otsuka. Esperion expects to be profitable by the end of 2024 and has no need to raise any additional capital, so no stock dilution. Esperion has patent protection until 2031 and believes can have patent protection until 2040. Analysts average price target is $9+. Fair valuation on a takeover would exceed $2 billion, but on the low end an offer could be $8 to $10 and the high end $14 to $18.

$Pfizer (PFE.US)$ has been active in the cardiovascular space and acquiring Esperion would complement its existing portfolio, providing a boost with Esperion's cholesterol lowering drugs, Pfizer's extensive marketing and distribution network could significantly increase the reach and sales of Esperion's drugs.

AstraZeneca $AstraZeneca (AZN.US)$ has a strong cardiovascular franchise and has shown interest in expanding its pipeline in this therapeutic area. Esperion's products would enhance AstraZeneca's offerings, especially given the complementary nature of their drug portfolios.

Novartis $Novartis AG (NVS.US)$ has also been expanding its cardiovascular and metabolic disease portfolio. Acquiring Esperion could fit, adding innovative therapies that align with Novartis's focus on cardiovascular.

Merck $Merck & Co (MRK.US)$ Is developing a PCSK9 pill that could come to market by 2030 yet it would be wise for Merck to snap up Esperion now before NEXLIZET becomes a blockbuster drug. Merck could easily offer a stock deal that could be very favorable and value ESPERION near the $17 per share valuation. MRK has an oral PCSK9 in trials that will be completed in Nov 2029. So won't come to market until 2030. it takes additional years for the FDA to grant a primary prevention label.

Esperion currently has 22% of the float held short, if investors in $GameStop (GME.US)$ $Chewy (CHWY.US)$ $AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$ with #wallstreetbets seriously researched Esperion they would realize how deeply undervalued the company is and recognize the upside reward is incredible. I doubt you will find another biotech or company that is valued so low and could generate over $9 billion on a yearly basis, investing in ESPR now is like buying some of these big names before they got huge. I firmly believe ESPR has will be $50 to $100 within 5 years, if it's not bought out in the near future. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$ $SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$ $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ $Coinbase (COIN.US)$ $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$ $Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$ $Adobe (ADBE.US)$ $Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US)$ $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ $Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$ $Carvana (CVNA.US)$ $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$ $Arista Networks (ANET.US)$ $Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$ $Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$ $Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)$ $Synopsys (SNPS.US)$ $Cummins (CMI.US)$ $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ $KLA Corp (KLAC.US)$ $GE Aerospace (GE.US)$ $Intuitive Machines (LUNR.US)$ $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN.US)$ $Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ.US)$ $C3.ai (AI.US)$ $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ $Snowflake (SNOW.US)$ $Costco (COST.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Uber Technologies (UBER.US)$ $Lyft Inc (LYFT.US)$ $Core Scientific (CORZ.US)$ $Moderna (MRNA.US)$ $MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$ $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ $Tilray Brands (TLRY.US)$ $Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.US)$ $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ $Novavax (NVAX.US)$ $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ $Intel (INTC.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ $Salesforce (CRM.US)$ $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ $Bright Minds Biosciences (DRUG.US)$ $SOBR Safe (SOBR.US)$

It is important to note Institutions and Hedge Funds have increased to 73% ownership in ESPR. Prescriptions growth will continue to gain, but what most people forget is $900 million in milestones will be paid to ESPR over the next 36 months. The very minimum patients predicted by 2027 is 500,000 yearly patients in the U.S which equals $2.25 BILLION in sales, profits will be over $1 BILLION.