“I can't read the exchange rate” but
The depreciation of the yen progressed to the point where 162 yen was added the other day, but it completely turned around and the yen appreciated to the point where it was cut 155 yen.
The American presidential election is becoming extremely confusing, and uncertainty about the future of exchange rates that cannot even be read is increasing.
However, aside from short-term fluctuations, I think the yen will depreciate over the long term.
I'm referring to Daisuke Karakama from Mizuho as evidence for thinking so.
Considerations from not only the Japan-US interest rate difference but also the trade balance and its breakdown are persuasive.
So, if the depreciation of the yen progresses as a long-term trend, I think the first individual investors should do is “continue long-term funded diversified investments.”
It's always an easy opinion that “amateurs should buy Orkan,” but personally, I also like foreign currency bonds, and I have a few.
I think “if you don't live with foreign currency, you should invest in yen” is true, but once in a while I want to go to Hawaii, so I can add up my travel funds, and if necessary as yen, I can transfer yen.
Unlike stocks and mutual funds, I like the low volatility that “it almost certainly increases when denominated in dollars.”
AT1 bonds are different, but I don't buy anything that has such a high risk.
I might buy domestic bonds when interest rates improve, though.
Since premiums are included in small-scale enterprise mutual aid, they also have domestic bonds indirectly, but well, you don't need to think too much about it.
What I'm interested in is “will domestic stocks rise if the yen depreciates?” That's it.
That's the trend these days, and that's true in terms of textbooks, isn't it?
This is because it will be easier for foreign investors to invest, and the performance of export companies will improve.
However, it is certain that Japan's population will decrease in the future, and I don't think we can really expect the industry to develop in that case.
Then I don't think the shelf life of “rising stock prices due to a depreciation of the yen” won't be that long.
Hmm, I don't really understand this area.
Certainly, I have a feeling that Turkey continues to experience inflation, weak lira, and high stock prices, but I wonder if Japan is going to feel like that too.
To the extreme, Japan's population will approach zero if it stays this way, so it will become a world where there are no stock prices or anything, but that's a super long story, so ignore it.
After all, I don't understand at all.
Even if amateurs think hard about this kind of thing, it won't happen, and they will do it as casually as before.
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「ぼんやりしながら投資を続けていく」がモットー。
投資対象はオルカンと債券。
40代、フリーランス、二児の父。
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アーロンチャッチ : I also watched Karakama-san's video. So I'm optimistic that the yen won't appreciate much. You might be freaked out if it's 120 yen or so.
KoolkoalaSM : If you consider interest rate differences, the “whitewash trade balance,” the Bank of Japan's reserve dollar depletion, US dollar purchases at NISA, etc., and the declining birthrate and aging population, I think it would be a dream and dream that 120 yen would appreciate.