I think it is premature to anticipate a 0.5% rate cut (based on the steel mentor's thinking).
Based on the economic indicators of the USA, there is a possibility that inflation is still sticky based on the PPI data. Although the weekly number of unemployment insurance claims and employment statistics, especially the unemployment rate, are gradually increasing, I believe that the labor market is still maintaining its strength.
I think it is quite unlikely for the FRB to make a 0.5 interest rate cut at this stage. I believe it is closer to 0.25. If there was an increase in gold, bonds, and even bitcoin due to the anticipation of a 0.5 cut, it may be worth watching out for a temporary disappointment sell-off if a 0.25 rate cut is announced. However, I consider bitcoin as a risk asset, so a 0.25 rate cut can be seen as a precautionary measure, and I would like to continue to remain positive on stocks and bitcoin even if they are temporarily sold off.
If you have any opinions, please leave a comment. I am just an individual investor myself and I don't believe that my own forecast is always correct. If there are different views, I would be in trouble, so thank you in advance.
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ぴるさん : If there was a 0.5% rate cut, I think the remarks from the important people would have been more tumultuous, so it seems that the FOMC members don't want it.
The weather is good today
The weather is good today.
J_M_RIN OP ぴるさん : If the inflation rate rapidly decreases or if there is a rapid deterioration in employment after September, the Federal Reserve may signal a card with a 0.5 interest rate to the market and may provide it in order to prevent a future sharp decline in stocks.I believe that by constantly keeping the market aware of the economic downturn, it creates a suitable temperature.
Kimihiko : I made Nick write it, so it's possible
J_M_RIN OP Kimihiko : もちろん可能性は消してませんよただ株式の急騰予防としても捉えてますコメントありがとうございます
tena0623 : In Nick's articles, etc., I will calmly observe whether the market will decline early this week! How will the weekend information be factored in, and so on. I think there is no information that the market will decline in the medium to long term.However, if it goes down, it would be appreciated (regarding stocks, haha).
J_M_RIN OP tena0623 : It's important to be cautious at this stage, I have a feeling that the volatility will be higher next week from the weekend information.
tena0623 J_M_RIN OP : That's right~I don't plan to sell, but I'll stay positive and hope for a good buying opportunity.Surely there will be various information riding on it (laughs).