If I'm going to make money with stocks, I want to hold on! When is the time to buy and when is the time to sell ⁉️
The interview with PAN is finally in its final episode! This timeHow does PAN grasp the timing of stock tradingI would like to talk about it. Please take a look. Also, I would be happy if you could share topics about your investment experiences.> Let's all socialize<![]()
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・Timing of stock purchases and sales: 3 patterns of sale timing
・Risk Control Basics: How to Set and Use a Loss Cut Line
・Best advice for investment beginners: Studying is essential
・Timing of stock purchases and sales: 3 patterns of sale timing
・Risk Control Basics: How to Set and Use a Loss Cut Line
・Best advice for investment beginners: Studying is essential
PAN's Profile
・US Stock Researcher, Part-time Investor
・Began investing in US stocks when in the US in 2013
・Financial assets over 300 million yen in 8 years from 30 million yen
・US Stock Researcher, Part-time Investor
・Began investing in US stocks when in the US in 2013
・Financial assets over 300 million yen in 8 years from 30 million yen
Timing of stock purchases and sales: 3 patterns of sale timing
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──How do you determine when to buy and sell stocks?
PAN: When to buy, I look at the chart and try to buy as much as possible when I think it's on an uptrend even though it's exciting. Basically, there are more investments that ride momentum on a rolling basis rather than going against it.There are 3 patterns of selling timingThere is nothing but that.
1. While stock prices are rising,”My stomach is already fullA way to sell called”
2. When the way it rises weakens,”This might go downA way to sell called”
3. It's been falling a little bit”This may have entered a downtrendA way to sell called”
1. While stock prices are rising,”My stomach is already fullA way to sell called”
2. When the way it rises weakens,”This might go downA way to sell called”
3. It's been falling a little bit”This may have entered a downtrendA way to sell called”
It is. I do these 3 sales methods from time to time, but I don't know which one is the correct answer. There are times when the price rises steadily from there, even if you think “that's probably enough since profits have already been made up to this point.” As soon as you think “we have entered a downtrend” and sell, prices may begin to rise again. However, I try not to worry at all about what happened after the sale.
As I mentioned earlier, it is difficult to determine whether the sale was the correct answer based only on the materials that were there at the time of sale. The reason for selling is clarified according to the timing of the 3 patterns of sale, so there is no remorse after selling. There are investors who leave only 1 share and watch the price change after the sale, but they don't do that. It also takes time and effort on the part of a tax accountant.
──When you buy and sell, you place importance on technical indicators and charts, right?
PAN: I often buy and sell by looking at charts, but there are also ways to sell to avoid events, such as selling before financial results are announced when financial results are uneasy. Also, I sometimes sell by looking at fundamentals. After announcing financial results once every 3 months, companies with poor financial results numbers or poor future prospects may sell.
──What kind of indicators are often used when buying and selling?
PAN: There are few indicators to use, and the only things left are moving averages, MACD, RSI, and trend lines drawn by myself. I'm aware of chart patterns. I think, “This is a double bottom, so maybe it's a trend change.” Basically, I try to look at all stocks with the same chart pattern.
──Are there various patterns used for moving averages?
PAN: 20, 50, and 200 days only.It's better to look at the standard indicators that many people seeI think so, I'm not messing with the MACD numbers, I'm also watching the SMA on the average movement line, and I don't look at EMA at all. Price movements often proceed according to the pattern of indicators that many people are watching, so I try to look at standard ones. For example, in the case of a resistance line, it is often easier to understand the movement if you are looking at the resistance line that many people think about, whether it is bounced by the resistance line or bought through the resistance line. I think it would be better to honestly look at the indicators that many people are looking at.
──When buying and selling, do you watch not only charts, but also news?
PAN: I watch the news all the time. Interest rates and economic indicators are also checked. I explain the news every morning on YouTube, and I actually watch many times more news than I explain, and I pick up and pick up only interesting things, things that seem interesting, and important things from among them.
I usually watch the news at night, and I get busy starting at 9:30 p.m. on weekdays. Basically, I invest in US stocks, so I watch US news. Conversely, I'm not looking at Japan at all. On Saturdays and Sundays, I sleep slowly and work.
I always keep a reasonable amount of cash on hand so that I can move right away when I watch the news and think about buying something quickly. There are times when I don't have it on hand, but at that time, depending on the market price, if there's something to sell, I sell it, and if I don't have anything to sell, I put up with it.
──When do you review your portfolio?
PAN: It's like looking at market prices and making decisions without reviewing them on a regular basis. Recently, for example, the dollar was in the 142 yen range, so I bought quite a bit of yen. I'm thinking about management in dollars, so the idea is to buy yen, but I wonder if it will go up to 145 yen or so per dollar
When I thought, “We might go that far, but if we get that far, the Japanese government's intervention and the like will come in some way,” I thought the 142 yen range would be a good level. For example, when the yen appreciates to around 137 yen per dollar, they sell it back to the dollar. Recently, I bought a leveraged bond ETF when interest rates exceeded 4% and the price dropped 6% due to the Bank of Japan's YCC (yield curve control) management flexibility announcement, and since the 3% value was returned in 2 days, I sold it.
From time to time, when you buy by thinking about what winning percentage is high and what returns you can get, your portfolio will naturally changeThat's what it feels like.
──How long is the holding period and transaction frequency?
PAN: It depends on the stock, and I'm not really aware of it, but it's not like trading the same stocks every day. If it's CFD or something, it's like trading in a few days and closing the position. I bought it with the intention of keeping it for a long time, but as a result, it sometimes sells in 1 day.
The position is that while enjoying the short term with a small amount of money, the large amount is rather medium to long term. There's no need to choose between the short term or the medium to long term, and I think it's fine to feel like you play golf but also play tennis, and even though you're a funded investor, enjoy short-term trading a bit.For investments that you think are fun or that you think will return, you should do whatever is within your risk toleranceThat's the idea.
Risk Control Basics: How to Set and Use a Loss Cut Line
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──What do you think would be best to consider from a risk management perspective? Do you look at risk holistically, or focus on individual indicators?
PAN: We look at medium-term risks in the economic cycle. For example, if the policy interest rate falls below 2.5 percent, I think they will make a consolidated investment in growth stocks.
It also depends on the market price,As has been said for a long time this year, I think an allocation of 60 stocks and 40 bonds would be good. There was no point in falling prices for both stocks and bonds last year, but I think that basic portfolio would be good this year. Now everyone is optimistic, and the risk that the economy will suddenly deteriorate is no longer anticipated, but we are always aware of the possibility that something will suddenly happen somewhere, for example, a major company will collapse or a major bank will go bankrupt. In that sense,Holding bonds is a risk hedge for stocks。
──There was also a view that several banks of Credit Suisse and regional banks in the US went bankrupt at the beginning of the year this year, and something like the Lehman shock would begin again, but how did you manage risk at that time?
PAN: At that timeI invested in regional bank ETFs. I also bought some individual shares of regional banks. I thought regional bank stocks were being sold too much. After that, I sold it when I made a profit to some extent, but it also rose quite a bit in July, so if I think about it now, I think it was too early to sell. However, I think the reading that regional banks will be revived was correct.
──What rules do you have in place for cutting losses?
PAN: There are no uniform rules, but basicallyAt the time of purchase, profit is determined, losses are cut, and the image is at the time of saleI'm doing it that way. It depends on what kind of materials you buy based on, but when purchasing, it feels like “let's sell this brand when it comes down to this point” or “whether this brand goes up or down, let's keep it for a certain period of time.” When purchasing stocks that have dropped too much with the aim of rebelling, etc., they may decide to sell at half price back in a short time.
There are people who often say the loss cut line is 8 percent, and this is because it's written in a book by American investor William O'Neill. However, personally, I think cutting losses at 8 percent would be a bit early.People who cut losses at 8 percent end up being pretty poor at cutting losses, so even 15 percent is fineI think so.
How you have an image of when selling is different every time, and I think it's difficult for everyone to decide that, but basically, I'm making an effort to protect the image I've decided for myself. That said, sometimes things don't go as decided. There are times when the price drops too much more than expected, and it becomes a pattern that is generally said to be no good, such as “selling doesn't sell, so let's wait for time to resolve it” (laughs)
──Have you ever designed and built your own algorithms?
PAN: It's not there. There are a lot of useful tools out there, so I'd like to use all of the tools I already have. I don't want to make my own algorithms, develop indicators, write investment memos, etc., and so on. In the first place, I think they don't use indicators or tools very often.
Best advice for investment beginners: Studying is essential
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──Finally, do you have any advice for those new to investing?
PAN: People often talk about “you can earn 100 million yen while sleeping” or “you can make 100 million yen without studying,” but that's not the case. “If you buy the S&P 500 that person recommended, it's safe,” is just a thing of the past after all. Even if you invest in the S&P 500, there are times when it is cut in half.In order to invest, you still have to study to some extentI think so.
Investing is an economic activity, so even if you don't study, you may be able to win as a result, but I don't think it's something you do without studying. For example, if it's a real estate investment, no one would buy it without studying. Investing in stocks is the same,“What can we expect from that investment?” “Should we really invest in US stocks?”That being said, I would like you to study to the extent that you can.
《Disclaimers, etc.》
● The purpose of this material is to provide information that can be used as a reference for investment decisions, and is not intended to solicit investment. Investments are made at the customer's own discretion.
● This material has been prepared based on sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, etc. of the information and opinions based on them. The information described in this document is current on the date the material was prepared, and is subject to change without notice.
● Moomoo Securities Co., Ltd. and PAN are not responsible for any damage, regardless of the reason, even if any damage occurs as a result of investments made based on these materials.
● It is prohibited to reproduce, reprint, transfer, etc. part or all of this material without permission, regardless of electronic or mechanical method or purpose.
● The purpose of this material is to provide information that can be used as a reference for investment decisions, and is not intended to solicit investment. Investments are made at the customer's own discretion.
● This material has been prepared based on sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, etc. of the information and opinions based on them. The information described in this document is current on the date the material was prepared, and is subject to change without notice.
● Moomoo Securities Co., Ltd. and PAN are not responsible for any damage, regardless of the reason, even if any damage occurs as a result of investments made based on these materials.
● It is prohibited to reproduce, reprint, transfer, etc. part or all of this material without permission, regardless of electronic or mechanical method or purpose.
《Disclosure matters relating to conflicts of interest》
● Stock selection is based on Mr. PAN's own judgment, and we do not accept any stock designations from third parties, including Moomoo Securities Co., Ltd.
● There is no serious conflict of interest between the person in charge of writing, Mr. PAN, and the company covered by this document.
● Stock selection is based on Mr. PAN's own judgment, and we do not accept any stock designations from third parties, including Moomoo Securities Co., Ltd.
● There is no serious conflict of interest between the person in charge of writing, Mr. PAN, and the company covered by this document.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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おしゃれなヒル_0771 : It was helpful![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
181516220 : It was very helpful. There are places where I sympathize with Mr. PAN's three ways of thinking about how to sell stocks, and I wonder if my own way of looking at information gathering and market movements is in line with the US stock market, and I noticed that I didn't quite understand how to buy and sell bonds, so it was a report that made future issues visible. Thank you PAN ♪
181055748 : that's right
182661428 : Was PAN able to ride this year's New Year's Eve? Were you able to understand it? Did you explain it to your followers and viewers? It seems that those who made money by predicting last year's crash and this year's year-to-date rise are real.
182661428 : Are you going to raise it in September? is it sideways? How far will it go down?
不動修太郎 : It's a great story that you should refer to as a way of thinking about investing.
Kim-chan : Is it OK to start with this investment of 100 yen
. Thank you very much for your support.
maoreo : It was helpful. At the end of the day, it's a matter of making firm odds with your own rules.