If you want to make a profit in stocks, it's important to know when to buy and sell! When is the best time to buy and sell?
The interview with Mr. PAN is finally coming to an end! This time,Mr. PAN will talk about how he identifies the timing for buying and selling stocks. Please take a look. We would also appreciate if you could share your investment experiences.about how Mr. PAN knows the timing for buying and selling stocks. Please take a look. We would also appreciate if you could share your investment experiences.> Let's interact with everyone<![]()
Points
・Timing of buying and selling stocks: three patterns of selling timing.
・Basics of risk control: setting and using stop-loss lines.
・Recommended advice for beginner investors: study is crucial.
・Timing of buying and selling stocks: three patterns of selling timing.
・Basics of risk control: setting and using stop-loss lines.
・Recommended advice for beginner investors: study is crucial.
Profile of PAN-san
・American stock researcher, part-time investor
・Started investing in US stocks in 2013 while in the US
・Financial assets exceeded 300 million yen in 8 years from 30 million yen
・American stock researcher, part-time investor
・Started investing in US stocks in 2013 while in the US
・Financial assets exceeded 300 million yen in 8 years from 30 million yen
Timing of buying and selling stocks: three patterns of selling timing
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---How do you determine the timing for buying and selling stocks?
PAN-sanWhen buying, I try to buy as much as possible when I think it's a dip but still in an uptrend by looking at the charts. Basically, I prefer momentum investing in line with the trend rather than contrarian investing.There are three patterns for selling.There are only 3 options.
1. Selling when the stock price is rising, "feeling full"2. Holding onto assets that you believe are no longer showing potential for price growth3. Selling when the stock price is rising, "feeling full"
When the upward momentum weakens, it is a selling approach that says, This may decline.
When it falls a little and you think, This might have entered a downtrend.
1. Selling when the stock price is rising, "feeling full"2. Holding onto assets that you believe are no longer showing potential for price growth3. Selling when the stock price is rising, "feeling full"
When the upward momentum weakens, it is a selling approach that says, This may decline.
When it falls a little and you think, This might have entered a downtrend.
This is the approach we take at that time, but we are not sure which one is correct. Even if you sell thinking, 'I've made enough profit here,' the price may continue to rise rapidly from there. Also, the moment you sell thinking 'it's entering a downtrend', the price may start to rise again. However, we try not to worry at all after selling.
As mentioned earlier, it is quite difficult to determine if selling is the right decision based on just one factor. The reason for selling is clearly aligned with the three selling timing patterns, so there is no regret after selling. Some investors may keep one share to observe the price movement after selling, but we do not do such things. It will also add to the work of the tax accountant.
---When buying and selling, do you emphasize technical indicators and candlestick charts?
PAN-san- I often trade based on candlestick charts, but there are also selling methods that avoid events, such as selling before the earnings results are announced when there are concerns about the results. Additionally, I sometimes sell after looking at the fundamentals. After quarterly earnings reports, if the numbers are poor or the future outlook is bleak, I may sell.
---What are the indicators that you often use when trading?
PAN-san- I use limited indicators when trading, mainly moving averages, MACD, RSI, and I draw trend lines myself. I am conscious of chart patterns. For example, I think, 'This is a double bottom, could it be a trend reversal?' I try to look at all stocks in a similar way in terms of chart patterns.
---Are various patterns of moving averages used?
PAN-sanOnly 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day.It's better to look at standard indicators that many people view.I believe it's best to look at indicators that many people are viewing without modifying the numbers for MACD, and I don't switch from observing the Simple Moving Average (SMA) to the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at all. Price movements often progress based on patterns of indicators that many people are watching, so I try to look at standard ones. For example, regarding support levels, when looking at the support level that many people are considering, whether it bounces off the support level or breaks through and triggers buying, the movements are often easier to understand. I believe it's better to simply look at the indicators that many people are observing.
---When buying and selling, do you also check the news in addition to the charts?
PAN-san: I always check the news. I also check interest rates and economic indicators. I do a news commentary every morning on YouTube, but in reality, I watch many times more news than I actually comment on, and I pick up and cover only the ones that seem interesting, pique my interest, or are important.
I mainly watch the news at night and it gets busy from 9:30 pm on weekdays. I primarily invest in US stocks, so I watch US news. On the other hand, I don't pay attention to Japan at all. On weekends, I take it easy and either sleep or work.
When I see the news and decide to buy something on a whim, I always keep a certain amount of cash on hand to act quickly.There are times when I don't have cash on hand, but in those situations, depending on the market conditions, I will sell if there are things to sell, and if not, I will wait.
---At what timing do you review your portfolio?
PAN-sanI determine based on market conditions without regularly reviewing. For example, recently, when it was around 142 yen to the dollar, I bought a considerable amount of yen. I think in terms of operating in dollars, so the idea is to buy yen, but I wonder if it will reach around 145 yen per dollar.
"It may go up that far, but if it reaches that point, I think the Japanese government's intervention may also come into play." Considering this, I thought that the 142 yen range is a good level. For example, if it becomes high up to around 137 yen to the dollar, I will sell back to dollars. Recently, when interest rates exceeded 4% and prices dropped by 6% following the Bank of Japan's announcement of Yield Curve Control (YCC) operational flexibility, I purchased leveraged bond ETFs and sold them after returning 3% in 2 days.
By considering which win rate is high at that time and which return can be obtained, the portfolio naturally changes over time.That's the feeling.
---How long do you usually hold your assets and how often do you trade?
PAN-sanIt depends on the stocks, and I'm not really conscious of it, but it's not like trading the same stocks every day. With CFDs, for example, I trade for a few days and then close the position. Although I intend to hold for a long time, there are times when I end up selling within a day.
I enjoy short-term positions with small amounts of money while taking a relatively medium to long-term approach with larger amounts. There is no need to choose between short-term or medium to long-term, just like playing golf and tennis, I believe it's good to be a systematic investor who enjoys short-term trading a bit.I think it's fine to do anything within my risk tolerance when it comes to investments that I find enjoyable or seem likely to yield returns.That's the idea I have.
Basic risk control: setting and utilizing stop-loss lines
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---From a risk management perspective, what do you think is the optimal way to consider? Do you look at risks comprehensively or focus on individual indicators?
PAN-sanIn terms of medium-term risks, I look at the economic cycle. For example, if the policy interest rate falls below 2.5 percent, I think it's a good idea to invest in growth stocks in one go.
It depends on the market conditions, but...As it has been said for years, I think a distribution of 60% stocks and 40% bonds is good for this year.Last year, because both stocks and bonds experienced price declines, it didn't make sense, but this year I believe that basic portfolio is good. Everyone is optimistic now, and the risk of suddenly worsening economy is not being considered anymore, but there is always the awareness of the possibility of something happening suddenly somewhere, such as the collapse of a major corporation or the bankruptcy of a major bank. In that sense...Holding bonds can serve as a risk hedge for stocks.。
---This year, at the beginning of the year, there was a view that several Credit Suisse and US regional banks would go bankrupt, and a situation similar to the Lehman Shock would start again. How did you manage the risk at that time?
PAN-sanAt that time.Invested in ETFs of regional banks. Also bought some individual stocks of regional banks.Because I thought regional bank stocks were oversold. After making some profits, I sold them, but looking back, I think I sold too early, considering they also rose significantly in July. However, I believe my prediction that regional banks would recover was accurate.
---What rules do you have for cutting losses?
PAN-sanThere is no fixed rule, but generally.When buying, it is important to have a mental image of taking profits or cutting losses at the time of sale.It depends on what factors you base your purchase on, but when buying, it's like 'Let's sell this stock once it drops to this level' or 'Let's hold this stock for a certain period regardless of whether it goes up or down.' For cases where you buy stocks that have dropped too much in anticipation of a rebound, you may decide to sell with a half-return in a short time.
There are people who often set a stop-loss line at 8 percent, which is written in the book of American investor William O'Neil. However, personally, I think that cutting losses at 8 percent is a bit early.People who cut losses at 8 percent often end up being poor at cutting losses, so even 15 percent would be okay.That's what I think.
The mental image one holds when selling varies every time, and it is difficult for everyone to decide on that. However, I try to stick to the mental image I have set as a basic principle. That said, things don't always go as planned. Sometimes the price drops more than expected, leading to a scenario commonly known as 'I cannot sell, so let time resolve it,' which is considered bad practice in general (lol).
---Have you ever designed and built algorithms yourself?
PAN-sanI don't have them. There are plenty of convenient tools in the world, so I prefer to handle everything with existing tools. I don't want to deal with complicated tasks like creating algorithms, developing indicators, or writing investment memos. In the first place, I think I'm not someone who uses indicators or tools very often.
Recommended advice for novice investors: studying is crucial
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---Finally, do you have any advice for beginner investors?
PAN-sanIn the world, you often hear stories like "you can make 0.1 billion yen while sleeping" or "you can profit 0.1 billion yen without studying", but that's not true. Statements like "you'll be safe if you buy the S&P500 recommended by that person" are nothing more than stories of the past. Even if you invest in the S&P500, you may end up losing half of it.To invest, it is necessary to study to some extent.That's what I think.
Investing is an economic activity, so although it may be possible to win in the end without studying, I don't think it's something that should be done without studying. For example, in real estate investment, there are likely no people who buy without studying. The same goes for investing in stocks.It's important to study within your capabilities what can be expected from that investment and whether it is really worth investing in US stocks.It would be good if you could study within your abilities about things like that.
《Disclaimer, etc.》
This document is intended to provide information for investment judgments and is not intended as solicitation for investment. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion.
This document has been created based on information sources considered to be reliable, but it does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information or opinions relied upon. The content in this document is as of the date of its creation and may be subject to change without notice.
In the event of any damages resulting from investments made based on this document, regardless of the reason, moomoo Securities Co., Ltd. and PAN assume no responsibility.
Reproduction, reprinting, transmission, or any other form of unauthorized copying of this document, whether in whole or in part, by electronic or mechanical means, for any purpose, is prohibited.
This document is intended to provide information for investment judgments and is not intended as solicitation for investment. Please make investment decisions at your own discretion.
This document has been created based on information sources considered to be reliable, but it does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information or opinions relied upon. The content in this document is as of the date of its creation and may be subject to change without notice.
In the event of any damages resulting from investments made based on this document, regardless of the reason, moomoo Securities Co., Ltd. and PAN assume no responsibility.
Reproduction, reprinting, transmission, or any other form of unauthorized copying of this document, whether in whole or in part, by electronic or mechanical means, for any purpose, is prohibited.
Disclosure on Conflicts of Interest
PAN selects stocks based on their own judgment and does not accept stock recommendations from third parties, including moomoo Securities Co., Ltd.
There is no significant conflict of interest between the author and PAN and the subject company of this document.
PAN selects stocks based on their own judgment and does not accept stock recommendations from third parties, including moomoo Securities Co., Ltd.
There is no significant conflict of interest between the author and PAN and the subject company of this document.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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おしゃれなヒル_0771 : It was helpful![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
181516220 : It was very helpful. There are places where I sympathize with Mr. PAN's three ways of thinking about how to sell stocks, and I wonder if my own way of looking at information gathering and market movements is in line with the US stock market, and I noticed that I didn't quite understand how to buy and sell bonds, so it was a report that made future issues visible. Thank you PAN ♪
181055748 : that's right
182661428 : Was PAN able to ride this year's New Year's Eve? Were you able to understand it? Did you explain it to your followers and viewers? It seems that those who made money by predicting last year's crash and this year's year-to-date rise are real.
182661428 : Are you going to raise it in September? is it sideways? How far will it go down?
不動修太郎 : It's a great story that you should refer to as a way of thinking about investing.
Kim-chan : Is it OK to start with this investment of 100 yen
. Thank you very much for your support.
maoreo : It was helpful. At the end of the day, it's a matter of making firm odds with your own rules.