If S&P returns to a bear market, the consequences are unimaginable
1. This year's high is lower than the 2021 high. If it falls back into a bear market, according to the principle that the low point moves downward, the lowest point will be lower than the previous low of 3,500.
2. Last year's low of 3,500 stopped falling, and the 200-week EMA belongs to the Little Bear Market. However, the 200-week EMA has now risen to 3800-3900. If it hits a new low next year, it is bound to break the 200-week average. Breaking the 200-week average is a big bear market.
Conclusions:
1. The sooner you start falling, the smaller the decline will be. As time went on, the 200 weeks continued to move upward, and it became more and more difficult to hold on. This weekly line is too important. If you can't stick to it, the problem is serious. If 3800 doesn't hold on, there will be no bottom ahead. If we put it off until next year, we'll have to stick to 4,000 points, then it will be even more difficult.
2. There is plenty of room for tech giants to make up for losses. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ It's already taking the lead. Today's pull-up was just an extreme rebound, used to play the band, or even run for life.
Look at qqq, $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ Today's low hits the previous low. This previous low cannot be broken, so the bulls must hold on today. Otherwise, if the NASDAQ reaches a new low, it will enter a bear market, and no tech giant will be able to run away after that.
However, the bulls are still powerful; this doesn't just pull them up. It's just not easy to say how long it will last.
$Apple (AAPL.US)$ Price reductions and promotions have also begun in China. Demand is weak, which is not good news. We need to be careful about underwriting technology stocks; I don't think it's time yet. I'd rather miss a band than let myself be hugely locked in.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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razo2 : iPhone 15 pro is shit. lol.
Seraphicall razo2 : YES!!!
mubbiiee : But if you think the other way around, can inflation go down without falling to 3800? Can the Federal Reserve cut interest rates with confidence? Interest paid by the Ministry of Finance has been stagnant for a long time. It is better to pay it down and then cut interest rates. The total cost is even lower, and then a new round of water release can begin.
高贵的阿德莱德 OP mubbiiee : That's right! But the long-term stagflation of the 1980s had a huge benefit for the US: it dragged down the Soviet Union.
mubbiiee 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : That is an incidental benefit; the domestic economy is definitely the more important factor. My logic is that it is impossible to deliberately create stagnation in order to bring down Mao Zi or Red Chicken.
Aruil : Thanks for sharing!
XWY Chan : Cutting apples and chives has been so smooth these past few years. The product is completely unaggressive; it should have plummeted! After the fall of Huawei, the real value rose from 1 trillion dollars to 3 trillion dollars. Has the product improved so much? Now that Huawei is carrying all of its own chips to produce new products, it is only natural for Apple to be hit. If it is unable to cope and the real value still has to go back, then it would be a huge loss.