TSLA
Tesla
-- 431.660 RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 17.0800 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 137.010 LAES
SEALSQ Corp
-- 9.080 PLTR
Palantir
-- 79.080 
If the 30-year bond interest rate touches 5.25,
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ On the 24th, the interest rate dropped sharply in the second half and closed. It is believed that funds bought back before Christmas as there were 20 million shares of short selling on TLT last week.![]()
Since the September FOMC, it has fallen by nearly $24 in 3 months, down 40%, and the situation is tough.![]()
Some people may find it difficult to accept the reason that interest rates rise with rate cuts, but before Trump took office, every time an inflation policy was implemented after his inauguration, and every time an interest rate cut was postponed, TMF is expected to decrease. Based on the rough calculation of the movement of the base ETF TLT in December, for each increase of about 0.04 in interest rates, TMF is expected to decrease by about $1. Therefore, it is estimated that TMF will be around $34 when the interest rate reaches 5%, and when the interest rate reaches 5.25%, it will fall below $30. (Due to the decrease in the original value, the decrease in the dollar value will also be small, so these are rough estimates).![]()
In the early 2000s, when the policy interest rate was around 4.5%, inflation progressed, and there were times when the 30-year interest rate exceeded 5.2%. So, I think it's good for the Trump administration to temporarily set aside the idea of 'It's unlikely to exceed 5%.' Another thing to consider is the pace of increase during an upward trend. Even if prices fall to nearly 30, the magnitude of the increase is relatively small in dollar terms when the TLT rises by three times and the initial amount is quite small. During the COVID-19 period, with the initial amount being high at 200 or 300, even with the same percentage increase as now, the dollar value increases more than fivefold, so continuous increases led to abnormal prices. In a period of economic downturn, if interest rate cuts below the neutral interest rate are not implemented as economic stimulus measures, then achieving a level above 100 in a mild recession requires a significant and continuous decrease in interest rates. It's necessary to invest with this knowledge. Even if interest rates drop to below 4 from here, 70 would not be exceeded theoretically. Therefore, after confirming a definitive indication of interest rate decline and as it begins to decrease, it might be a good idea to aim for about a 20% increase by entering into swings.![]()
At that time, due to the narrowing of the interest rate spread, the yen will likely appreciate like in the summer, so in reality, you may only get a little over 10%. I truly believe that bonds are the most challenging.![]()
I'm not buying it now, but if it's a stock hedge, it's probably gold for me.![]()
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ひろ0723 OP : At this time today, the interest rates are rising, but I believe this is probably because individuals or institutional investors, without regard to inflation concerns, are temporarily taking cash positions at the end of the year. Just that alone causes TMF to drop. There should be very few people planning to redeem the 30-year bonds. It's a completely speculative target, so it's too scary.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
ひろ0723 OP : Technical analysis is effective for corporate stocks when there are no internal factors affecting changes, but it does not work at all for government bonds that are subject to almost all external factors changing daily, so relying on it can result in a major burn.
NOsss : Hey! It's not good to leverage the bond by three times! Betting on the moment of a sudden rise is too risky, it's impossible! Even if it suddenly goes up, where are you going to sell it~~
FROST0420 : I think Hiro's analysis is excellent. I believe that an interest rate of over 5% is quite possible. I have considered purchasing this Gold ETF multiple times, but it seems like I won't buy it this time
ひろ0723 OP FROST0420 : Good morning. The stock market went down yesterday as well. Especially when stocks are falling significantly.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Speculative 30-year bonds with strong speculative elements tend to be sold by those who want to convert to cash at the end of the year due to few holders aiming for yield, which can lead to a decrease. At the moment, the movement is not based on a comparison between recession and prosperity, but rather on whether interest rates will rise or fall due to inflation rising in the previous stage. Therefore, I think it is quite difficult for it to go from this state of cutting 40 to reaching 60 by 2025. Currently, the only visible factor is inflation. This year is one that globally moves towards inflation due to tariffs, but I believe that it will only be when the downward trend in interest rates starts together with the spread of recession that interest rates will fall. If you expect a 10-20% increase, it's better with TMV (it's also written there), but to expect a significant increase in 3x Bull TMF, it must go through several mild to moderate recessions and not be profitable until the base rises to 80-100 after the recession that follows.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
The temporary decline with no clear reason during the robust economy trend for a few days does not provide a hedge at the moment.