If you know - you no
I am sure I will get trolled for this. But I too was extremely confused as to how AMC could beat earnings est., turn a profit, and still- the stock gets absolutely destroyed. Yes, I am well aware of the shorts, the big money, I have a series 7, worked on a trading floor for 14 years. I get it. But, shorts are not made by a bunch of apes in a room throwing darts at a list of stocks. I am not here to defend what they do, just being real- they all have their convictions just as the good guys have their reasons to be long.
Just 4 months ago we were worried about our banking system collapsing. Thankfully- most survived. But, we still have a massive amount of banks de-leveraging, which is by the fed’s design to shrink the money supply and curb inflation. When you have a balance sheet that looks like AMC’s, where each quarter your assets are eroding, and your liabilities are - well not eroding as much- you become incredibly hard to lend to. AMC’s debt ratio is now at 129.79%, the highest in company history. If 60-70% is considered high risk, then what is twice that - considered?
You can turn a tiny profit all you want, but if your Liability/Asset ratio is increasing to levels that are unsustainable forever- you get what we experienced the last few days. I get the stock split, the APE conversion, that certainly didn’t help. But this is bigger than that and as financing becomes more difficult and more expensive-I am very worried about AMC’s future. Sure, if AMC has a blowout quarter, somehow figures out a way to remove the elephant in the room- I would be ecstatic.
I believe this is now a foot race between the shorts and the good guys. Unfortunately, the shorts have all the momentum- and if you can look the simple picture below - and convince me I am wrong- I would sincerely appreciate it.
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Series 7&66, Trading Floor-13 years. Survived dot.com bubble, 9/11, Enron Accting, Gr8 Recession Now here to help.
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TacticalYoda : Well articulated. Unfortunately, dilution is the only answer. Gotta get more cash flow.
thabull12 : Turned a profit while including APE in the math, no APE shit, we turned a Fortune 500 company profit.
Haymaker78 OP : It was an awesome accomplishment. However, I still need compelling evidence that AMC can survive? Because if you need to shore up $5 Billion in debt, and are having to perform a 1-10 reverse stock split - all so you can then take those who just got bent over - who have $22 for one share and drive it into the ground by issuing millions of new shares. Do the math, $5 billion divided by $25 (assuming that AMC remains at 2.50 on conversion date) is how many shares of stock? A LOT. It sucks. I wish someone would give me some hope here.
Notorious DAVe : Dude the balance sheet is a hot mess. AA took a gamble by adding a ton of new locations. Lock down happened and the problems grew. It’s not series 7 difficult. Make less than burn bad. That’s from my series 34
Haymaker78 OP Notorious DAVe : I am not shaming the bad bet before COVID, nor anyone here. I am just trying to help those who may not have our background. This isn’t another GameStop, in my opinion, AMC would have trouble finding financing in a robust roaring economy with their current balance sheet - you couple that with the current market conditions- and the stock split is an absolute Hail Mary- in my opinion. I see so many comments about the reasons for the stock crashing is because of corrupt shorts and that this stock is cheap and a good buy. However, I have yet to read any compelling reason why it’s cheap?
I haven’t seen any posts on what I wrote, and I just wanted to share what I believe, and hopefully help someone. That’s all. I hope I am wrong, that’s why I asked for someone to please convince me otherwise.
Haymaker78 OP : Just another example of exactly what I am talking about. This was just posted.
FuFu 888 Haymaker78 OP : i m not sure, but, y can't the company clear half of the debt, it will make more sense rather than clearing all at one shot. if this was played as a 3D chess, those market maker hedge the price down n need not cover it back? NO risk involve???
Haymaker78 OP : I am not sure I understand what you are asking. Are you saying that those who are short the stock are not going to have to cover therefore not taking risk?
71519856 : Haymaker
Nothing to convince and the numbers will never make sense
Is called manipulation at high cartel level ( el chapo and Pablo Escobar too far behind compared to this steal )
Giving away what you don’t have or posses is what happen here
Trillions of dollars printing with no national gross profit at level. AMC is just one sitting duck company in between hundreds with retail investors a lot of us with excellent knowledge in math , but all good fails when evil is at work .
Just remember that fake is not real .USA is not the same anymore .