If you look at the number of people employed in the non-farm sector, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage that were announced, you can see that the economy is showing a positive outlook
Looking at the announced number of non-farm payrolls, unemployment rates, and average hourly wages, you can see that the economy is showing a positive outlook.
why?? ↓ ↓ ↓
The result for the number of people employed in the non-farm sector was 272,000, which greatly exceeded the forecast of 190,000. That's a good enough number for no problem. And the unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.0%. This rise represents a broader softening trend seen in the labor market. Also, I have predicted that the unemployment rate will end this year between 4.3-4.6%, but I don't think this figure is historically strong and shows weakness.
Take a look at the first image. This shows changes in the unemployment rate. As you can see by looking at this chart, you can see that it has been rising while slowly moving up and down over 2 years. There was no sudden rise from 3.9% to 4.0%. This also shows that the labor market is recovering and there is dynamics.
Next, take a look at the second image. This shows changes in average hourly wage (year-on-year). Looking at this chart, the average hourly wage is strong, showing that it has been moving above 4% for the past 3 years (since mid-2021). I'm taking this very positively. I don't think that a high average hourly wage means that the income of ordinary households is high, that is, from a macroeconomic fundamental point of view, it will not be bearish for the wider economy. In other words, I personally think it shows a positive outlook for the economy.
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