ある意味で刺激が少ない相場(理想的)
$VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH.US)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ 前回の決算でも玉石混交とコメントしてきましたが、より鮮明に二極化してきた印象。半導体銘柄を保有したいなら素直にエヌビディアやTSMCを買えば良いと思う。最高値からの乖離をみれば明らかと思われる。ソフトランディングもしくはノーランディング(あり得る)であれば幅広い銘柄が買われていくと仮定して、個人的には指数をメインに。半導体の需要サイクルを考えても、現状ではハイテク全般QQQで十分と思っているが、買うならエヌビディア一択。というか、ポートフォリオに個別銘柄は現在ないが、エヌビディアは長期目線で検討すべきではないかといまだに自問自答しています。
レバレッジETFはやはり、長期で持つのはリスクにリターンが見合わないと思う。
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J_M_RIN : Long time no see , but I still have a reason to be SOXL Thank you for raising awareness about leverage.
アマチュア投資家 OP J_M_RIN : In the current market conditions, isn't it more of an inefficient use of leverage rather than a warning? It's a simple question. I think the expenses of leverage are quite high, so if you believe in the future of semiconductors in the long term, it might still be more rewarding to focus on companies with good performance that match the risk. I wonder how it will turn out.
J_M_RIN アマチュア投資家 OP : It depends on individual forecasts and perspectives, doesn't it?I have expectations and predictions for my unwavering belief in SOXL, so even though it may not be efficient, it's not about just hopping on when it's efficient. I am implementing a cost averaging strategy to buy more as the price decreases, in order to mitigate the impact on future returns.
アマチュア投資家 OP J_M_RIN : It is completely off the beaten path of traditional investment thinking, and betting on a future that even the world's leading geniuses who move the market cannot predict, so I believe you must be prepared for considerable risk. However, of course, it is your personal life and assets, so I think it is up to each individual to believe in whatever they choose. Because in the end, results are everything.
J_M_RIN アマチュア投資家 OP : I understand that it may not be prudent, but I have accumulated data analysis and reasonable future predictions. I have been working hard to achieve my goals, even if I may not be able to achieve them to the fullest extent or I may be able to. Confirming whether the knowledge I have acquired will bear fruit while enjoying it is the most important thing in my investment life, so please understand. Rather, it is the outcome of whether effort pays off that is important, even if money is not a top priority.
アマチュア投資家 OP J_M_RIN : Of course, I do not intend to deny individual perspectives, so if you feel offended, I apologize. To be honest, I don't understand the theory as an investment method (such as, if selecting stocks through margin financing and securities lending makes more sense in terms of cost, especially if you thoroughly gather data and conduct research), but I also find joy in the act of investing, and it is natural for some people to find my way of thinking boring. I think it varies from person to person depending on their living environment, so it really depends on each individual.
J_M_RIN アマチュア投資家 OP : I'm not harming you, I actually understand amateur's thoughts well, but in addition to profiles, they are making profits steadily through individual stocks. Only comments on stocks that are truly expected in terms of character are being posted, so please understand.
Rice001 : I'm worried about what to do with SMH
Wondering if it makes sense to hold on to ETFs.
アマチュア投資家 OP Rice001 : It is imaginable that not all news in the semiconductor industry under Trump are positive. If you have a long-term perspective and truly hold for the long run, there may be another resurgence in the future (I think it's much better than SOXL in a downturn), but it may still take time for things that have once boomed to come into the spotlight.
If it were me holding for the long term, I would buy individual stocks like nvidia, the top in the sector. The future prospects of the technology and the stock price don't seem to be closely related, that's also a fact. A mixed bag.