Bear market manipulation.
Some people were saying that the semiconductor bubble burst even after the previous earnings, but how did they look when the prices hit new highs afterwards?
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ジュウスドイット : Such a face.
Bluemoon_4826 : I assumed it would go down, so I sold everything at 147 yesterday. I will re-enter at a better timing!
184295026 : This time, unlike before, the global market is definitely deteriorating. First and foremost, you should be aware of that.
1 Geopolitical and Warfare Risks Rapidly Increasing
- The intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war which started this week!!!
Biden, in the final few months of his presidency, finally allowed the use of long-range missiles that the USA had been hesitant to provide for Ukraine, in order to give them an advantage against Russia (Mon). Immediately after, Putin announced a relaxation of the requirements for using nuclear weapons worldwide.
- Ukraine promptly fired the "ATACMS" into Russia (Tues). The following day, late at night Japanese time, Ukraine launched the long-range missile "Storm Shadow" provided by the United Kingdom into Russia (Wed).
- Russia retaliated by launching ICBMs into Ukraine (Thurs).
2 Trump Risk
As the Trump administration takes office at the beginning of next year with an uncertain future, Trump will swiftly implement numerous policies simultaneously. It will be like a surprise attack.
The following is an excerpt from a recent Bloomberg article:
Trump recently stated in an interview with popular podcaster Joe Rogan that the semiconductor deal is very bad, claiming that Taiwan stole the USA's semiconductor business. He argued that applying high tariffs would be a better way to get companies to establish factories in the USA.
Trump suggested to Rogan, "Just impose high tariffs on semiconductor imports." He then added that there was no need for him to pay tariffs. He said that it was sufficient to build factories in the USA and remarked, "They didn't need funding to build factories."
In other words, Trump does not want to transfer cutting-edge semiconductor technology to other countries. Whether through technology transfer or through business arrangements like "other countries buying -> exporting or producing and selling locally," he wants to bring it back to Americanism, making America No. 1. He wants to thoroughly enforce complete protectionist trade and protection of industries. Therefore, global semiconductor companies like Nvidia will directly bear the brunt of Trump's protectionist regulations, and their broad business activities will no longer be possible as before.
Instead, there will be a significant increase in semiconductor development and practical experiments in the USA, various machinery automation will drastically increase. However, their performance will decline without being able to do business with the rest of the world.
Even as an amateur without expertise in economics or political science, I can't help but think that unbelievably extraordinary things will happen from next year without a doubt.
Regarding the geopolitical warfare mentioned in 1, in addition to Ukraine, Israel remains.
Regarding the Trump risk in 2, it's hard to imagine what will happen in the USA and around the world for the next four years starting next year.
Optimism about Nvidia should be abandoned. It's okay to have expectations for the company, but in the face of politics (domestic and foreign), wars, and such immense influences, a single company's performance can disappear in an instant. It's easy for a country to enact new laws, place legal constraints on corporate activities, and put significant restrictions on overseas business agreements, especially if sudden conflicts arise in the partner country or its related nations and material transportation (exports) becomes restricted due to war zones. The power dynamics between this company and the state/war are a reality.
Therefore, it's best not to place excessive expectations on Nvidia. Be prepared for the future, not necessarily for complete cashing out of all sales, but more like allocating a small amount from surplus funds that you genuinely don't plan to use for many decades ahead (retirement funds). However, concentrating over half of your personal funds in the stock of just one company like Nvidia, a method that worked from the beginning of this year until early July, is no longer viable.