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Industry Analysis No. 6: New Energy Industry in the United States

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Araevx1 wrote a column · 15 hours ago
I. Industry overview
The new energy industry in the United States occupies an important position in the wave of global energy transformation. In recent years, with the enhancement of environmental protection awareness, the promotion of technological innovation and the support of government policies, the field of new energy has made remarkable development. The industry covers multiple sub-sectors such as solar, wind, hydro, bioenergy and electric vehicles, all of which are interconnected and synergistic, working together to reduce dependence on traditional fossil fuels and improve energy sustainability and cleanliness.
Second, the solar energy industry
Installed capacity and growth trend
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power generation in the United States has shown rapid growth over the past decade. By the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity has exceeded 150GW, an increase of nearly 10 times from 2013. Among them, the new installed capacity in 2023 reached 25GW, an increase of 15%. This growth is largely driven by the dramatic decline in the cost of solar panels, which have dropped by about 80 percent over the past decade, making solar power more economically competitive.
In terms of different application scenarios, utility-scale solar power plants account for the largest proportion of installed capacity, about 60%. Distributed solar, including rooftop solar systems, is also growing rapidly, and its share has risen to about 40%. This trend has been driven by incentives such as net metering policies, which have encouraged residential and commercial users to install solar systems and sell excess power back to the grid.
Major companies and market share
The U.S. solar market is highly competitive, with some major players holding significant positions in the industry. First Solar, for example, is one of the world's leading manufacturers of thin film solar cells, with a market share of about 15 percent in its home country. SunPower focuses on the production and sales of high-efficiency crystalline silicon solar cells and modules, with a market share of about 12%. In addition, there are many other Chinese companies such as Jinkosolar and Longi Green Energy that are also operating in the US market and gradually expanding their market share by virtue of their cost advantages and technological innovation.
Policy implications and future prospects
The Investment Tax Credit (ITC) policy at the federal level has been an important driving force for the growth of the U.S. solar industry. The policy allows solar project developers to credit a corresponding proportion of the investment cost within a certain period of time, effectively reducing the pressure on the initial investment of the project. However, the policy uncertainty also brings certain risks to the industry. For example, the tax rate of the ITC policy has undergone several adjustments in the past, and whether and how much it will continue in the future will have a significant impact on the industry's investment decisions.
Looking to the future, with the continuous progress of technology, such as the breakthrough of perovskite solar cell technology is expected to further improve the conversion efficiency of solar cells and reduce the cost. It is expected that by 2030, the installed capacity of solar energy in the United States will continue to maintain rapid growth, the cumulative installed capacity is expected to exceed 300GW, and the proportion of the national electricity supply will increase from the current about 3% to about 10%.
Third, the wind energy industry
Installed capacity and distribution
The United States is one of the world's largest wind power producers, and its onshore and offshore wind energy resources are abundant. By the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in the United States has reached 130GW, ranking among the top in the world. In terms of distribution, Texas is the state with the largest installed wind power capacity in the United States, accounting for about 25% of the national total, followed by Iowa, Oklahoma and other Midwest regions. These areas have vast plains and stable wind resources, which provide favorable conditions for the construction of large-scale wind farms.
In terms of offshore wind power, although it started relatively late, it has developed rapidly in recent years. Several large offshore Wind projects have been planned for the US East Coast, such as the Vineyard Wind project in Massachusetts, which will have an installed capacity of 800MW. The United States is expected to have more than 15GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.
Wind turbine manufacturing and supply chain
The wind turbine manufacturing industry in the United States is relatively concentrated, and GE Renewable Energy is the largest local wind turbine manufacturer, with a market share of about 40%. In addition, there are Vestas, Siemens Gamesa and other international well-known companies to compete in the US market. In the supply of fan parts, the United States has a relatively complete industrial chain, including the production capacity of blades, gear boxes, generators and other major components. However, some key components such as high-performance permanent magnets are still dependent on imports, which affects the stability and cost control of the supply chain to a certain extent.
Policy and market drivers
The federal government's Production Tax Credit (PTC) has played a key role in the growth of the U.S. wind energy industry. The policy provides wind power operators with a tax credit of a certain amount per kilowatt-hour, incentivizing investment in wind power projects. As the technology matures and economies of scale emerge, the cost of wind power continues to fall, and it is now one of the lowest-cost sources of electricity in some parts of the United States. In addition, state governments have also introduced a series of supporting policies, such as the Renewable Energy quota System (RPS), which requires power suppliers to include a certain percentage of renewable energy in their electricity supply, which further drives the market demand for wind power generation.
In the future, with the continuous improvement of offshore wind power technology and the reduction of costs, the US offshore wind power market will usher in greater development opportunities. At the same time, the innovation of fan technology, such as the development and application of larger single-capacity fans, will further improve the efficiency and economy of wind power generation, and it is expected that by 2035, the installed capacity of wind power in the United States is expected to reach more than 200GW, and the proportion of wind power in the national power structure will increase to about 20%.
4. Water energy industry
Installed hydropower capacity and power generation
The United States has abundant hydropower resources, and hydropower is one of its important traditional renewable energy sources. By the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of hydropower in the United States is about 100GW, and the annual electricity generation is about 300 billion KWH, accounting for about 7% of the total electricity generation in the country. Among them, Washington State, California and Oregon are the largest hydroelectric power generation states, mainly thanks to these areas have large hydropower stations, such as Washington's Grand Couly Hydropower Station, its installed capacity of up to 6809MW, is one of the largest hydropower stations in the United States.
Hydropower project development and operation
Hydropower projects in the United States are mostly operated by large electric utilities or federal government agencies. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, for example, manages and operates many important hydropower facilities, which also play an important role in flood control, irrigation, shipping, and more. In terms of hydropower project development, due to environmental protection requirements and resource constraints, there have been fewer new large-scale hydropower projects in recent years, and more efforts have been made to upgrade and optimize the operation of existing hydropower stations to improve power generation efficiency and safety.
Policy and Environmental implications
Hydropower projects enjoy certain policy support, but also face strict environmental supervision. The relevant policies of the federal and state governments require that hydropower projects must fully consider the impact on fish migration, water quality, ecosystem and other aspects in the operation process, and take corresponding protection measures. For example, some hydropower stations need to build fish channels and other facilities to ensure the normal migration of fish. In addition, with the impact of climate change, the hydropower industry is also facing challenges brought about by changes in water resources, such as drought, which can lead to a decrease in hydropower generation, and floods, which can cause damage to hydropower facilities.
Looking ahead, the hydropower sector will continue to play a steady role in energy supply, but at a relatively slow pace. It is expected that by 2030, the installed capacity of hydropower in the United States will increase slightly, reaching about 110GW, and the proportion of electricity generation will remain basically stable.
5. Biological energy industry
Biofuel production and consumption
The United States is one of the world's largest producers of biofuels, mainly bioethanol and biodiesel. In terms of bioethanol, the United States uses corn as the main feedstock and produces about 15 billion gallons per year, accounting for about 60% of global bioethanol production. The production of biodiesel is relatively small, about 2 billion gallons, and the main feedstock includes soybean oil, corn oil and so on. The consumption of biofuels is mainly concentrated in the transportation sector, and the US government requires a certain proportion of biofuels to be added to gasoline and diesel through policies such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Biomass power generation and heating
Biomass power generation is also an important part of the U.S. bioenergy industry. By the end of 2023, the installed capacity of biomass power generation in the United States is about 15GW, and the annual generation capacity is about 60 billion KWH. Biomass heating has also been applied in some areas, such as in areas where the wood processing industry is concentrated, the use of wood waste for heating has improved energy utilization efficiency and resource recycling level.
Technological innovation and sustainability challenges
The bioenergy industry continues to make progress in technological innovation, for example, second-generation biofuel technology using non-food crops or agricultural waste as raw materials is expected to solve the contradiction between biofuel production and food supply, and improve the sustainability of biofuels. However, the bioenergy industry also faces some challenges, such as the stability and cost control of feedstock supply, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the production of biofuels. In addition, the market price of biofuels is greatly affected by the fluctuations of international crude oil prices, and the market competitiveness of biofuels will be weakened when the price of crude oil is low.
It is expected that in the future, with the continuous breakthrough of technology and the continuous support of policies, the United States bioenergy industry will gradually develop in a more sustainable and efficient direction. By 2030, biofuel production is expected to increase further, and the installed capacity of biomass power generation will grow to about 20GW.
6. Electric vehicle industry
Market sales and holdings
In recent years, the U.S. electric vehicle market has shown a rapid growth trend. According to the market research institute, electric vehicle sales in the United States reached 1.5 million in 2023, an increase of 50% over the previous year, accounting for about 7% of the new car sales market. By the end of 2023, there are more than 5 million electric vehicles on the road in the United States. As the leader of the electric vehicle industry in the United States, Tesla has a market share of about 60%, and its models such as Model 3 and Model Y have high visibility and sales worldwide. In addition, traditional automakers such as General Motors and Ford Motor are also increasing their investment in the development and production of electric vehicles, and have launched a series of competitive models, such as GM's Chevrolet Bolt and Ford's Mustang Mach-E.
Charging infrastructure construction
The degree of perfection of charging infrastructure is one of the key factors affecting the popularity of electric vehicles. The US government and businesses have increased investment in the construction of charging infrastructure. By the end of 2023, the number of public charging piles in the United States is about 150,000, of which about 30,000 are fast charging piles. Tesla is leading the way in the construction of its supercharging network, with its supercharging piles spread across major highways and cities in the United States, providing Tesla owners with convenient long-distance charging services. In addition, other automakers and third-party charging operators are also working together to build charging networks to improve the coverage and compatibility of charging facilities.
Policy support and technology trends
The federal government and state governments have introduced a range of policies to support the development of electric vehicles, including tax credits, car purchase subsidies, and zero-emission vehicle requirements. For example, the federal government offers a tax credit of up to $7,500 for the purchase of qualifying electric vehicles. In terms of technology, the continuous progress of electric vehicle battery technology is the core driving force for the development of the industry. At present, some research institutions and enterprises in the United States are committed to the development of higher energy density, longer driving range, shorter charging time battery technology, such as solid-state battery technology research and development is expected to make major breakthroughs in the next few years, will further enhance the performance of electric vehicles and market competitiveness.
It is expected that by 2030, electric vehicle sales in the United States will account for more than 20% of the new car sales market, with more than 20 million vehicles on the road. The charging infrastructure will be more perfect, the number of public charging piles is expected to exceed 500,000, and the proportion of fast charging piles will be further increased to meet the charging needs of electric vehicle users.
Vii. Challenges and opportunities facing the industry
Technological innovation challenge
Although the new energy industry in the United States has made remarkable progress in several areas, it still faces some technological innovation challenges. For example, solar and wind energy storage technologies are not yet fully mature, leading to energy intermittency problems that are difficult to effectively solve, limiting their large-scale stable application in power systems. In addition, EV battery recycling and reuse technologies also need to be further refined to reduce costs and reduce the potential environmental impact.
Policy uncertainty
Policy plays a crucial role in the development of the new energy industry, but the uncertainty of policy has brought certain risks to the industry. As mentioned above, tax credits in the solar and electric vehicle industries may be adjusted or expire, which will affect companies' investment decisions and market development expectations. In addition, policy differences between states can also lead to problems such as market segmentation and inefficient allocation of resources.
Market competition pressure
The global new energy market is becoming increasingly competitive, and American companies are not only facing competition from domestic counterparts, but also facing challenges from international companies. For example, in the solar energy sector, Chinese companies have an important position in the global market due to their cost advantages and technological innovation, which poses a certain threat to the market share of domestic companies. In the field of electric vehicles, in addition to Tesla, European and Asian automakers are also actively expanding the US market, intensifying market competition.
chance
Despite many challenges, the new energy industry in the United States has also ushered in unprecedented development opportunities. First of all, the global consensus on environmental protection and climate change has been increasing, providing a broad market space for the new energy industry. Secondly, the continuous advancement of technological innovation is expected to break through the existing bottlenecks and improve the efficiency and economy of new energy. For example, the application of artificial intelligence and Internet of Things technology in the field of new energy will realize the intelligent management of energy production, transmission and consumption, further enhancing the competitiveness of the industry. In addition, the US government's investment in infrastructure construction and green economy recovery plan will also bring new development opportunities for the new energy industry, such as large-scale grid upgrading and transformation will be conducive to the consumption and transmission of new energy power.
To sum up, the new energy industry in the United States has made great progress in the past few decades, with various sub-fields showing varying degrees of growth and innovation. However, the industry still faces a series of challenges in terms of technology, policy and market competition. In the future, with the acceleration of the global energy transition, the new energy industry in the United States is expected to seize opportunities in the process of overcoming challenges, achieve larger scale development, and make greater contributions to the adjustment and sustainable development of the United States energy structure.
The above report is for reference only, and the data sources mainly include the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), market research reports and relevant industry association data, etc. Actual data may vary slightly due to statistical caliber and time differences.
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