NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 140.110 RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 10.0400 TSLA
Tesla
-- 394.940 IONQ
IonQ Inc
-- 30.250 AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
-- 121.840 
Industry Analysis Volume 10: The U.S. Real Estate Industry
1. Market trends
Housing price trend
According to Zillow's forecast, the median price of a U.S. home in 2024 will be $359,099, up 2.6% from the previous year
Goldman Sachs and Fannie Mae, among others, also forecast that home prices will continue to rise in 2025, with an increase of between 1.8% and 4%
In 2023, home prices in the United States experienced significant increases, especially in certain cities, such as Newark, New York, which increased by 11.8%
Sales situation
Data for September 2024 show that the average home sale price across the country is up 3.4% year-over-year, and the number of homes listed for sale is up 16% year-over-year
. However, existing home sales are still at a trough, while new home sales are steadily picking up, indicating a clear divergence in the market
.
Relationship between supply and demand
Vacancy rates are at historic lows, a sign that demand is outstripping supply on the market
Although the supply of new homes has increased, the supply of existing homes has remained tight, leading to continued upward price momentum
Main driving factor
Interest rate impact
Fluctuations in mortgage rates have had a significant impact on the housing market. In early 2024, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.29% before falling to 6.6%
As interest rates have fallen, some buyers have re-entered the market, boosting sales activity.
Economic environment
The overall performance of the U.S. economy, including the job market and the level of inflation, has a direct impact on real estate demand. A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% could weigh on residential demand going forward
.
The purchase intention of ultra-high net worth individuals
According to Knight Frank's report, 22% of ultra-high net worth individuals plan to buy a home in 2024, with the United States becoming one of their popular choices, further boosting the high-end real estate market
Second, Future outlook
Short-term forecast: The housing market in 2024 is expected to continue to be influenced by changes in interest rates and the economic environment. If the Fed's expected rate cut is delayed, it could dampen demand for home purchases, but if rates continue to fall back, it could spur a recovery.
Long-term trend: As millennials gradually become the main force in home buying, market demand will remain stable. In addition, the trend towards smaller homes and sustainable lifestyles will also influence housing choices in the future
Iii. Conclusion
After a period of adjustment, the U.S. real estate sector is showing potential for recovery and growth. Despite challenges such as high interest rates and supply-demand imbalances, the market's resilience and underlying demand present opportunities for investors. Paying attention to economic indicators and policy changes will be an important factor in understanding market dynamics over the next few years.
4. Recommend relevant industry companies
Lennar Architecture (LEN)
Basic stock information
Current price: about $166.01
Market value: about $44.747 billion
Price/earnings ratio (PE) : 11.03
52-week high/low: $193.80 / $137.95
Intraday range: $162.97 - $166.24
Volume: about 1.71 million shares
Dividend: $0.50 per share, with a dividend yield of 1.15%
Housing price trend
According to Zillow's forecast, the median price of a U.S. home in 2024 will be $359,099, up 2.6% from the previous year
Goldman Sachs and Fannie Mae, among others, also forecast that home prices will continue to rise in 2025, with an increase of between 1.8% and 4%
In 2023, home prices in the United States experienced significant increases, especially in certain cities, such as Newark, New York, which increased by 11.8%
Sales situation
Data for September 2024 show that the average home sale price across the country is up 3.4% year-over-year, and the number of homes listed for sale is up 16% year-over-year
. However, existing home sales are still at a trough, while new home sales are steadily picking up, indicating a clear divergence in the market
.
Relationship between supply and demand
Vacancy rates are at historic lows, a sign that demand is outstripping supply on the market
Although the supply of new homes has increased, the supply of existing homes has remained tight, leading to continued upward price momentum
Main driving factor
Interest rate impact
Fluctuations in mortgage rates have had a significant impact on the housing market. In early 2024, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.29% before falling to 6.6%
As interest rates have fallen, some buyers have re-entered the market, boosting sales activity.
Economic environment
The overall performance of the U.S. economy, including the job market and the level of inflation, has a direct impact on real estate demand. A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% could weigh on residential demand going forward
.
The purchase intention of ultra-high net worth individuals
According to Knight Frank's report, 22% of ultra-high net worth individuals plan to buy a home in 2024, with the United States becoming one of their popular choices, further boosting the high-end real estate market
Second, Future outlook
Short-term forecast: The housing market in 2024 is expected to continue to be influenced by changes in interest rates and the economic environment. If the Fed's expected rate cut is delayed, it could dampen demand for home purchases, but if rates continue to fall back, it could spur a recovery.
Long-term trend: As millennials gradually become the main force in home buying, market demand will remain stable. In addition, the trend towards smaller homes and sustainable lifestyles will also influence housing choices in the future
Iii. Conclusion
After a period of adjustment, the U.S. real estate sector is showing potential for recovery and growth. Despite challenges such as high interest rates and supply-demand imbalances, the market's resilience and underlying demand present opportunities for investors. Paying attention to economic indicators and policy changes will be an important factor in understanding market dynamics over the next few years.
4. Recommend relevant industry companies
Lennar Architecture (LEN)
Basic stock information
Current price: about $166.01
Market value: about $44.747 billion
Price/earnings ratio (PE) : 11.03
52-week high/low: $193.80 / $137.95
Intraday range: $162.97 - $166.24
Volume: about 1.71 million shares
Dividend: $0.50 per share, with a dividend yield of 1.15%
Investment analysis
Growth potential: As the U.S. housing market gradually recovers, Lennar expects continued growth in sales and profits.
Market position: As an industry leader, Lennar has an advantage in terms of resources, brands and market coverage.
Investment risks: High interest rates and economic volatility can have an impact on home purchase demand, but the company's diversification strategy helps mitigate these risks.
Sum up
Lennar, with its strong market position, stable financial performance and aggressive expansion plans, provides investors with excellent investment opportunities. When evaluating the stock, attention should be paid to the overall economic environment and developments in the real estate market.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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