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Inflation 4.0% but there is an utterly wicked base effect th...

Inflation 4.0% but there is an utterly wicked base effect that dropped out of May 2023 and will drop out the annual data over the next four months. Monthly inflation from a year ago:
June 2023 0.7%
July 2023 0.3%
August 2023 0.6%
Sep 2023 0.6%
There you have it; 2.2 ppts of inflation that is going to be replaced with something lower in each of the next four months.
Hear me out - assuming 0.3% per month for those four months, buy the time we get the annual August data, annual inflation will be 3.0%.
And we know that the monthly readings are likely to be lower than 0.3% on average, in part because of weak economy and slowing wages growth but also some impact from govt subsidies for electricity and rent. The inflation readings for May had the same old factors which the RBA has little sway over with rates, up or down - petrol, tobacco, rent and insurance. Of course we's all love inflation to be in the target today and yes, a further hike would deliver it in spades.
But at what cost to business and jobs.
RBA on hold for me.
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