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Institutional tracking (data analysis).

I received a question about how to determine whether institutions are bullish or bearish nowadays, there is an NAAIM Index that indexes the U.S. stock holdings of institutions and represents it as a graph.
Here it is...
Institutional tracking (data analysis).
Above 80 is considered excessive optimism, below 20 is considered excessive pessimism.
By the way, the latest NAAIM index as of Friday has already risen to 81, looking slightly bullish from a neutral stance if we consider below 55 as bearish and above 100.
Since the beginning of 2024, without dropping below 50, institutions have maintained a consistently bullish outlook, rebounding to around 100. It can be observed that the rebound and bullish sentiment have been increasing since mid-August. If it continues to rise from here and reaches around 100, there is a possibility of hitting a plateau once, but then it would be helpful to regularly check this NAAIM index to see what kind of waves it might create.
I think it is an excellent reference data as it has a strong correlation with stock prices.
Institutional tracking (data analysis).
I apologize for the outdated data, but it represents the relationship between the SP500 and NAAIM index.
During the uptrend in 2017, there are times when the NAAIM index does not decline for a long period and stays around 60-70 to 80-100, knowing this kind of movement alone can change your perspective.
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  • ぴるさん : Interesting document
    When looking at the correlation between the SP500 and the NAAIM index, it is clear that institutional investors are the ones driving the index.[undefined]

  • J_M_RIN OP ぴるさん : Exactly, it's like picking up when the institutions sell off. However, if the market is strong and the NAAIM index is down, you need to understand that it may maintain high values and the stock price may continue to rise.[undefined]

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