Finally, we are entering a phase of interest rate cuts! However, will it change depending on the size of the rate cut?
Technical analysis (Rating: 3.63/5)
- The gradual range market that has been ongoing since May broke out on 7/25. It will deviate in price movements from 8/2 to 8/7 and 8/30, but it will remain within the blue resistance/support lines. There is no room for a trend reversal.
- From the concern of a hard landing due to the rise in unemployment rate on 8/5, the trend shifted from upward to downward. Subsequently, although there was gradual recovery due to improvements in inflation indicators, it did not change to an upward trend due to the concern of a rise in unemployment rate caused by the worsening of employment statistics on 8/21. However, it changed to a downward to upward trend reversal, surpassing the levels of ① and ②, due to the strength of inflation-related indicators such as PCE deflator and the decrease in unemployment rate. The trend reversal in the short-term perspective has been achieved, and now we are aiming for a trend reversal in the medium-term perspective. However, if there is a quick rate cut, the situation may change and there is a possibility of a trend reversal to a downward trend.
- Strong uptrend. I think it is in an upward direction in the short-term and medium-term in terms of momentum, but in terms of levels of being overbought or volume, it may take a break.
・米半導体大手エヌビディア(NVDA.O), opens new tabは２８日、第３・四半期（８─１０月）の売上高が３２５億ドル（プラスマイナス２％）になると予想した。市場予想（３１７億７０００万ドル）とほぼ一致する水準にとどまり、株価は引け後の時間外取引で６％下落した。
☆ Candlestick chart (Rating: 3.5/5)
- From 9/3 onwards, there has been a series of bullish candlestick charts (although on 9/6, it became a candlestick chart with a long upper wick, it ended with a bullish candle). On 9/12, there was a bearish candlestick with a slightly long lower wick, and it ended with a bearish candle on 9/13.
- Has the momentum been slightly lost due to the US bond auction?
☆Candlestick Pattern (Rating: 4/5)
Short-term perspective (8/1～)
- The gradual range-bound market since May broke out on 7/25. Although there was a deviation in price movement from 8/2 to 8/7 and 8/30, it remained within the blue resistance/support lines. There is no sign of a trend reversal.- The trading is happening within the blue resistance/support lines. There is no room for a trend reversal.
- Medium-term perspective (1/1~) / Long-term perspective (2023, 7/20~)
- Will it be a movement to aim for a new high as both medium-term and long-term are on the verge of forming a double bottom?
☆Dow Theory (Rating: 3.5/5)
Short-term perspective (8/1～)
•'①Rise to fall trend reversal' due to concerns of hard landing caused by the increase in unemployment rate on 8/5. Subsequently, gradual recovery due to improvement in inflation indicators, but '②Concerns of increase in unemployment rate due to worsening employment statistics on 8/21' prevented the trend from reversing to rise.However, due to the steady performance of inflation indicators such as PCE deflator and the decrease in unemployment rate米国Exceeding levels 1 and 2 leads to a decline and then a trend reversal to an upward trend.
Short-term trend reversal has been achieved, and the next phase aims at transitioning to a medium-term trend reversal.However, if there is a rapid rate cut, the situation may change, and there is a high possibility of transitioning to a declining trend.
Medium-term perspective (1/1~)
•"After the observation of interest rate cuts due to the rise in inflation-based indicators and the decline in employment statistics after 1/2,around 67From the bearish trend to the bullish trend, but due to the strength of inflation indicators and the decrease in unemployment rate, the trend reversed from bearish to bullish and approached the level of 1/2.
First, aim to break through from a medium-term perspective. If a rate cut at a slower pace is achieved, it is likely that a breakthrough from a medium-term perspective is also close.
Long-term perspective (July 20, 2023 -)
- Policy rate increase by FRB rather than inflation resurgenceNear 76From the bullish trend to the bearish trend since July 25, but in the process of trend reversal from bearish to bullish due to the policy switch of FRB from rate hike to rate cut
Regarding the long-term perspective, whether the focus will be on the trend reversal due to the 'slower rate cut by the FRB' and the 'policy interest rate lower than 2023'?Will it become the focus whether the 'slower rate cut by the FRB' and the 'policy interest rate lower than 2023' will lead to a trend reversal?These are sectors such as retail, transportation, information and communications, pharmaceuticals, electricity and gas, etc.Will it become the focus whether the 'slower rate cut by the FRB' and the 'policy interest rate lower than 2023' will lead to a trend reversal?Regarding the long-term perspective, whether the focus will be on the trend reversal due to the 'slower rate cut by the FRB' and the 'policy interest rate lower than 2023'?
Moving average x volume moving average (Rating: 3.5/5)
- Moving Average: The candlestick chart is riding on the 5-day moving average. However, a dead cross occurred on the 5/21-day moving average line (8/30), but it ended in a fake-out and converted to a golden cross. Also, a golden cross occurred on the 75/200-day moving average line.(4.5/5)
- Volume moving average line: Golden cross occurred when the 5/21-day moving average line crossed over to the short-term/medium-term moving average line. However, a dead cross occurred on 9/13.(2.5/5)
In terms of momentum, I believe it is in an upward direction in the short-term and medium-term.In terms of volume, do you think it will take a break?
Ichimoku balance table x DMI (Rating: 4.5/5)
- Ichimoku balance table: Currently in a positive trend. No signs of reversal, and the cloud is also twisted.(5/5)
- DMI: Cross occurred between MDI/ADX, narrowing the gap between PDI/ADX. The gap between PDI/MDI remains wide.(4/5)
I'm concerned that the range is narrowing compared to PDI/ADX, butIn a strong upward trend. It is unlikely to change trends for a while, isn't it?
☆BOLL×RSI×MACD (Rating: 2.83/5)
- BOLL: Touched +1σ from the baseline on 9/3. After that, the candlestick chart has been moving up on +1σ. However, it will take a little longer to touch +2σ.(Rating: 3.5/5)
- RSI: Rose to the mid-50s on 9/3. After that, it has been staying around the mid-60s and has come to slightly overbought levels.(2/5)
MACD: A golden cross occurred on 9/5. The dead cross is likely to occur a little later.(3/5)
→ It is in an upward trend, butIt seems to be entering the second half when looking at the level of being overbought.
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